Under the improvement of the capital at the beginning of the year, the market often has a "spring restlessness"**, so it is judged that the current market is in a state of accelerating "catching up with the bottom", which also means that the market turnaround is getting closer and closer. 
Investor Network" Special Wealth Navigator Mao Rui.
The three major indexes collectively opened lower in early trading on Monday. After the open, the index remained weak** near the flat line. In the afternoon, the index edged higher. In the end, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Component Index, and the ChiNext Index rose by 014%, up 038%, up 031% reported. On the disk, there are 33 up-limit stocks (excluding ST and unopened new stocks) and 22 down-limit stocks (excluding ST), indicating that the market sentiment is low;The change-rate ratio is 1809:3124, and the average increase is 010%, the money-making effect is weak, and the turnover of the two cities is 608.1 billion, a decrease of 21 from the previous trading day98%。Northbound funds are suspended from trading due to Christmas.
Although it continued to be affected by the sharp decline in some popular sectors and many high-standard stocks in the early stage, the number of stocks that fell yesterday was still relatively large, but the overall market was still relatively stable, not only the three major indexes collectively closed up, but the average increase also returned to positive. In addition, the trading volume has hit a new low recently, and the total turnover of the two cities has shrunk by more than two percent compared with the previous trading day, which is only one step away from the absolute volume level of 5500 to 600 billion in the past two years.
Behind this calm, there seems to be an undercurrent surging, and this undercurrent is ETF funds. Just last week, when the ** index hit a new low for the year, the ** ETF ** won 386The net inflow of 4.7 billion yuan, while the market-wide ETF exceeded the 2 trillion mark, and the share hit a record high. So, where does the incremental funding for this ETF come from?Judging from the recent changes in the balance of market financing, it has increased from 15999 on December 13The high of 0.4 billion fell to 15,846 on Friday4.5 billion, reflecting that the market risk appetite tends to fall at the end of the year, combined with the recent market trading volume tends to shrink, but also to a certain extent reflects that the enthusiasm of small and medium-sized investors to increase their positions at the current time point is not high. Therefore, Uncle Rui believes that behind this it is not excluded that there are large funds that are taking advantage of ETFs for layout.
Let's take a look at the specific inflows of ETFs last week: in terms of broad-based ETFs, the underlying indices with more net inflows last week were CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, STAR 50, and ChiNext Index, with net inflows of 173 respectively600 million yuan, 606.2 billion yuan, 35800 million yuan, 263.3 billion yuan, 158.5 billion yuan;The products with the most net inflows last week were Huatai Pineapple CSI 300 ETF, ChinaAMC SSE 50 ETF, E Fund CSI 300 ETF, CSI 500 ETF, and Harvest CSI 300 ETF, with net inflows of 103 respectively8.2 billion yuan, 465.9 billion yuan, 324.7 billion yuan, 241.1 billion yuan, 183.5 billion yuan. It can be seen that the most favored inflow of funds is the CSI 300. And just yesterday's morning comment, Uncle Rui just mentioned that on the one hand, looking back at the "spring restlessness" at the beginning of the year when the previous low level started, a common feature is that the over-falling stocks in the early stage performed better;On the other hand, since the beginning of this year, the market has shown obvious characteristics of "big weak and small strong" and repeated hype around the new track of science and technology, the micro-cap stock index representing the 400 stocks with the smallest market capitalization in Shanghai has risen by more than 40% this year, and the CSI 300 index, which represents the weight of the Shanghai market, has fallen by more than 10% this year after falling by more than 20% last year. Coupled with the current signs, some signs are beginning to indicate that this divergence may be close to the extreme. Therefore, we remind everyone to pay attention to the high and low switching of market style in the future. Judging from the latest developments of ETF funds mentioned above, the layout direction of incremental funds seems to be the same.
Overall, the current market volume is close to the absolute volume level, reflecting that the long and short sides have no intention of fighting at the end of the year, so it is expected that there will not be much fluctuation in the last four trading days of the year. Once the New Year is over, in the context of improved capital, the market is expected to usher in the traditional "spring restlessness"** In addition, based on the fact that the first quarter is often the most relaxed period of the year, and the market's expectations for the stable growth policy are expected to heat up again before the important meeting in March, and the daily MACD indicator of the CSI 300 index has taken the lead in the golden cross, it is necessary to pay attention to the high and low switching of the market style in the future, and pay more attention to the traditional industries and new energy industries that account for a relatively large proportion of the CSI 300 and overfell in the early stage. At the corresponding operational level, the current suggestions to everyone are as follows: those who take light positions are mainly to increase their positions on dips;Heavy positions are mainly patiently holding on to the stock to rise.
In terms of sectors and hot spots, on the market yesterday, in terms of industries, sorted in an unweighted manner, aviation, general machinery, automobiles, etc. were among the top gainers, and media and entertainment, Internet, and advertising packaging were among the top decliners. In terms of subject matter, combined with the number of increases of more than 5%** and the increase in sector indexes, mixed reality, Huawei automobiles, robot concepts, etc. are slightly active.
The military sector highlighted by Uncle Rui in yesterday's morning comment continues to be relatively active, and the aviation branch of it once again occupies a leading position in the industry sector index. In yesterday's morning comment, Uncle Rui also talked about the two leading driving factors of the military sector, one is that on December 22, Air China announced that it intends to issue A shares to raise no more than 6 billion yuan, which will be used to introduce 17 aircraft projects and supplement liquidity;Second, since November, there has been a significant increase in the number of bidding and bid-winning announcements issued by the army's equipment procurement information network. And let's talk about the latter, and I'm going to talk about the former again today. From the establishment of the project in 2007 to the completion of the first commercial flight in May 2023, the C919 has experienced rapid growth in 16 years and now has mass production capacity. In addition, by the end of 2022, the C919 had received a total of 32 customers and 1,035 orders. In April 2023, COMAC signed a purchase agreement with HNA Aviation Group for 100 aircraft, including a confirmed order for 60 C919 aircraft. According to COMAC data, the global passenger aircraft scale is expected to reach 45,397 by 2040, of which China will account for 22% of them, surpassing North America and Europe to become the largest region in the global passenger aircraft demand. Single-aisle passenger aircraft have become the mainstream of the aviation aircraft market, and COMAC expects that by 2040, 71% of the world's new aircraft deliveries will be single-aisle passenger aircraft, of which nearly 6 of all new aircraft delivered to China will become 160-seat single-aisle passenger aircraft represented by C919. At present, the concentration of the global commercial airliner market is extremely high, and Airbus and Boeing monopolize the entire market with a "duopoly" situation. After the successful mass production and quasi-flight of C919, COMAC is expected to quickly open up the market and achieve a new situation of "A (AIRBUS) B (BOEING) C (COMAC)" with the help of C919 narrow-body trunk airliner and CR929 wide-body long-range airliner. Large aircraft are the concentrated embodiment of a country's scientific and technological capabilities, industrial level and comprehensive strength. Its strategic position is first reflected in the fact that it has a significant impact on the development and production of military aviation products, and the large-scale civil aircraft industry plays an important role in guaranteeing the development and production of military aviation products. At the same time, the strategic position of large aircraft is also reflected in its strong industrial linkage effect and relatively significant contribution to economic growth. The commercial operation and mass production of the domestic civil aircraft C919 will drive the development of the entire aircraft manufacturing industry chain, as well as the group breakthrough of key technologies in the fields of new materials, modern manufacturing, advanced power, electronic information, automatic control, and computers, and promote the development of many high-tech industries, which is of great significance to enhance the comprehensive strength of the country. In addition, large aircraft have a strong driving effect of surrounding industries. According to the calculation of the Institute of Aviation Economics of the Civil Aviation University of China quoted by Guangming.com, if calculated according to the life cycle of civil aircraft of 10 years, the contribution ratio of large aircraft to China's economic added value is 1:86, and the employment contribution ratio is 1:96。Even if the current input-output ratio of large aircraft is 1:80, under the condition of maintaining the current localization rate of C919, domestic large aircraft is expected to bring trillions of yuan of market size to industrial chain enterprises. With the increase of the localization rate, it will also drive the industrial chain to a new level and inject new development impetus into China's aviation industry. Large passenger aircraft manufacturing enterprises generally adopt the "main manufacturer-first-class" model, and their parts are mainly manufactured by domestic and foreign first-class businessmen in the form of global bidding. In the value chain of large aircraft manufacturing, the value of fuselage manufacturing, airborne equipment and engine accounts for about %-30% and 20%-25% respectively, but due to the relatively backward development of China's large aircraft industry in the early stage and the incomplete independent supporting system, the current self-sufficiency part accounts for less than 40% of the overall large aircraft. Among them, the high-end airborne equipment is basically dominated by foreign companies, the engine adopts CFM's LEAP-1C engine, and the key materials and components also rely on imports, while domestic enterprises mainly undertake airframe manufacturing, and there is a huge localization space in the first chain as a whole. Relying on the huge rigid demand in China and the expansion potential of overseas markets, it is expected that the domestic supporting enterprises of the C919 large aircraft will benefit from the promotion of subsequent domestic substitution, especially for the subsequent models to make technical reserves. To sum up, the future market space of domestic large aircraft is broad, and domestic industrial chain enterprises are expected to benefit deeply under the background of domestic substitution.
The mixed reality sector, which has just been adjusted for a day, was reactivated yesterday, with the sector index rising more than 3% and hitting a new high in recent times. In terms of drivers, first, Ming-Chi Kuo, a well-known Apple analyst and Tianfeng International, said yesterday that Vision Pro has been mass-produced and is expected to start mass shipments in the first week of January 2024. Based on the current high-volume shipping schedule, Apple will most likely ship the Vision Pro in late January or early FebruarySecond, recently, Meta CTO Andrew. Andrew Bosworth revealed in an interview that the company may show off a prototype of a cutting-edge AR glasses codenamed "Orion" in 2024. And after the market, a new assist was sent on the news side: according to the approval of the State Administration of Radio and Television, it was agreed to set up the "Key Laboratory of UHD Technology Innovation and Application of the State Administration of Radio and Television" in Huawei Technologies. From the second half of 2022 to the beginning of 2023, many manufacturers such as Skyworth, PICO, Meta, Apple, and Sony have successively released new products. PICO 4 and Meta's new products are successively equipped with Pancake optical solutions, and are equipped with a variety of interactive functions. In June this year, Apple's WWDC conference, its first-generation MR headset Vision Pro was released, with its technological innovation and outstanding technological innovation, indicating the main line of hardware upgrades. Specifically, 1) Optical solution: In terms of VR, Pancake has the advantage of being thinner and lighter, and the weight can be optimized to be reduced by about 50%.In addition, the IPD adjustment of the Vision Pro is expected to become mainstream in the long term, with significant improvements in diopter and image quality. In terms of AR, Birdbath is currently the mainstream solution, and the diffractive optical waveguide scheme can be expected in the future. 2) Display scheme: In terms of VR, Fast LCD has the best overall effect and cost, which is the current mainstreamThe Micro OLED used in the Vision Pro has up to 23 million pixels per eye and an effect of over 4K, leading a new round of XR display hardware innovation. 3) Perceptual interaction: In terms of sensors, Vision Pro is equipped with 12 cameras + 5 sensors + 6 microphones to provide support for interaction, and users only need to simply look at the APP and interact with gestures. Apple has officially opened the road of "spatial computing" this time, redefining the interaction paradigm, and is expected to lead the subsequent innovation in the field of interaction. In addition, eye tracking technology can greatly improve the interactive experience, making the application move from the B-end to the C-end. Overall, Vision Pro is expected to lead the XR industry chain to rejuvenate itself, and the iteration of XR product technology will also bring new growth opportunities for VR hardware and domestic manufacturers. After investigation and statistics, the interface news reporter found that unlike the previous iPhone 15 series products, the proportion of Apple's Vision Pro Chinese mainland ** chain has been greatly increased to about 60%. According to the investigation statistics of the interface news reporter a few days ago, unlike the low proportion of mainland parts of the previous iPhone 15 series products, the proportion of Apple's Vision Pro Chinese mainland ** chain has been greatly increased to about 60%. In addition, according to the information of the core people of the industrial chain quoted by Jiemian News, the hardware cost of Apple's Vision Pro is about 1700 US dollars, and the exclusive ** heat sink module and headband, eye mask and nose pad of a listed company in the mainland ** chain account for about 250-300 US dollars in the value of a single machine, and another listed company is an exclusive OEM assembly, with a value of about 150-200 US dollars. If Apple's sales target of 10 million units in the third year is followed, the total value of the two companies can be said to be quite substantial. In addition, Micro-OLED is the best display solution for MR devices, and it is expected to take advantage of the wind. XR devices need to display screens at very close visual distances to create a visual environment where the virtual world interacts with the real world. At this stage, the biggest bottleneck of the terminal equipment of high-performance near-eye system is microdisplay technology, and liberating visual requirements is one of the core problems that XR equipment needs to solve urgently. At present, there are still some shortcomings in the existing headsets, such as the traditional AR display technology LCOS has the problems of low contrast and high power consumption, while the mainstream VR display technology FAST-LCD has problems such as low pixel density, high latency, easy vertigo, and cannot display local black. Therefore, it is particularly important to find a new type of display suitable for headset devices with small size, light weight, high display resolution, fast response speed and low power consumption. In this context, microoled came into being. On the basis of traditional OLED display technology, Micro OLED effectively avoids the screen window effect through W-RGB technology, and integrates driver chips and pixel arrays into monocrystalline silicon through CMOS process to achieve lightweight and refined display. As a result, Micro OLED is able to overcome many of the shortcomings of previous AR VR display technologies, and well meet the needs of XR device screens to improve pixel density, reduce vertigo, and reduce power consumption. Overall, Micro OLED is the most suitable device for head-mounted immersive virtual reality devices among all types of microdisplays. Looking ahead, Vision Pro may lead the industry, is expected to open up a new era of spatial computing, and activate the industrial chain through further iterative innovation. According to MarketAccording to US data, the global MR market size is expected to grow at 43The compound growth rate of 2% increased to 1,224 billion US dollars, and the space is vast. As the core hardware, Micro OLED is also expected to take advantage of the wind. To sum up, based on the catalyst of the imminent launch of Apple's most important product, Vision Pro, in 2024, the mixed reality theme is expected to be repeatedly active in the short term and will continue to be followed.
Operation strategy: Although it continues to be affected by the sharp decline in some popular sectors and many high-standard stocks in the early stage, the number of stocks that fell yesterday is still relatively large, but the overall market is still relatively stable, not only the three major indexes collectively closed up, but the average increase was also back to positive. From the point of view, based on the law that the most tense period of capital at the end of the year has passed, and the last week of the year in recent years, it is expected that even if there will be a recurrence in the next few days, there is a high probability that it will not hit a new low again. In the long run, the "policy bottom", "economic bottom", "valuation bottom" have appeared one after another, and the third quarterly report of listed companies reflects the "performance bottom" has also initially appeared, coupled with the improvement of the capital at the beginning of the year, the market often appears "spring restlessness"** Therefore, the current market is in a state of accelerating "catching up with the bottom", which also means that the market turnaround is getting closer and closer. In the medium term, on the one hand, the current price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index are at the bottom of history, that is, it has a very high medium and long-term margin of safety and investment cost performance. On the other hand, although the foundation of the current economic recovery is not yet solid, the general direction of the recovery has not changed as the monetary policy continues to be loose and measures to stabilize growth have been implemented one after another. In addition, the Fed is about to end its interest rate hike cycle, external factors will gradually dissipate, and the medium-term market outlook remains positive. Operationally, those who take light positions mainly increase their positions on dips;Heavy positions are mainly patiently holding on to the stock to rise.
IFC**Mao Rui SAC Practice Number: S1130622080021).