Recently, memory chips have become the "protagonists" of the chip industry.
Under the efforts of Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, Micron and other leading original factories to reduce production and maintain prices, the memory chip market has finally begun to pick up, and it is also rising.
In addition, as the storage capacity of various application devices continues to increase, as well as the penetration rate of generative AI applications and electric vehicles continues to increase, the demand for memory chips will further increase, and the memory chip industry seems to usher in an upward cycle again.
Below, let's take a look at the analysis of the current situation and future trend of the memory chip industry.
1、dram
In the fourth quarter of this year, Samsung, Micron, SK hynix and other original storage manufacturers had a clear attitude towards price increases, and the production reduction effect was initially effective, and DRAM rose violently.
According to CFM flash memory market data, the global scale in the third quarter of 2023 increased by 224% to 130$6.3 billion. Driven by DRAM shipments and average QoQ**, Samsung and SK hynix saw revenue growth of 20%+ and 30%+ respectively in the third quarter, with SK hynix successfully turning its DRAM business into a profit.
On the whole, the major original manufacturers have changed their strategies, no longer reduce prices, and turn losses into profits. According to TrendForce's estimates, the DRAM contract price** in Q4 is about 13-18%, of which DDR5** is 15-20%, DDR4** is 10-15%, and DDR3** is 10%.
Many factories have realized that early stocking and early peace of mind will make tomorrow more expensive than today. In the spot market, the current supply of DDR3 is sufficient, stable and declining, while the demand for DDR4 is rising.
In addition, Micron announced the availability of 128GB DDR5 RDimm memory based on a 32GB single-chip chip with up to 8000MTS performance to support future data center workloads.
2、nand flash
At present, the industry is optimistic about NAND Flash chips, and the price rise of NAND Flash continues.
Western Digital, the world's fourth-largest NAND Flash company, is optimistic that NAND Flash chips will be cyclical in the next few quarters, with a cumulative increase of 55%. Based on this**, Western Digital has issued a price increase notification letter to customers.
According to TrendForce, shipments in the NAND Flash market increased by 3% QoQ in the third quarter of 2023, with overall consolidated revenue of 92$2.9 billion, an increase of about 29%。
In addition, the overall average** of NAND Flash increased quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, except for Kioxia, which affected the sales revenue of NAND Flash due to the decline in shipments from July to September, and the other original manufacturers achieved quarter-on-quarter growth in NAND Flash revenue in the third quarter.
NAND Flash*** has also set off a price boom in SSDs, the SSD market is currently very hot, **the number is very limited, **day by day**, and the fourth quarter of the enterprise-level SSD** is about 20% or more.
3、nor flash
Driven by the price increase atmosphere of DRAM gold and NAND Flash, NOR Flash began to brew price increases.
According to Taiwan**, China, NOR Flash will take over the baton to start a new round of price increases in memory chips, which is expected to rise by 5% from January next year, and the increase is expected to expand to 10% in the second quarter.
It is expected to rise from January next year, and the increase is expected to expand further in the second quarter.
According to industry analysis, the NOR Flash market was oversupplied before, and with the start of production cuts and inventory reductions by relevant manufacturers such as Winbond Electronics and Macronix, coupled with the gradual improvement in demand for terminal applications such as laptops and smartphones, the NOR Flash market trend continued to improve at the end of the year, and it is expected to start raising prices early next year.
Morgan Stanley's latest report also pointed out that in 2024, the global NOR flash market will shift from oversupply to undersupply, ushering in a situation of "both volume and price".
TrendForce estimates that in the first quarter of next year, driven by the continuous stockpiling of mobile phone brands, the average price increase of Mobile DRAM and EMMC UFS will expand to 18 to 23%. At the same time, it is not excluded that in the case of an oligopoly market pattern or a panic chasing price by brand customers, further increase in the rise.
In general, the memory chip industry is showing a positive trend and is gradually rebounding.
Samsung Electronics, memory chips, really warmed up?Under the premise that the production reduction plans of leading OEMs such as SK hynix and Micron remain unchanged, the recovery of the application market such as mobile phones and the accelerated development of artificial intelligence will give rise to more demand for AI storage, and the memory chip industry as a whole in 2024 may usher in a turnaround.
Electronic components can be purchased with confidence, all in the kitten core city, welcome to pay attention!