Original Liu Xiaobo.
Today (December 22), the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Ministry of Finance both issued the press release of the annual work conference, each with a keyword worthy of great attention.
The key word of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is: good.
The key word of the Ministry of Finance is: tight days.
The meeting convened by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development was the "National Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Construction", and the word "good" appeared 35 times in the draft released after the meeting"Good House" appears 7 times.
Some people may say: What kind of keyword is this?Maybe it's just a matter of what's going on.
Actually, no, there is a mystery hidden in it.
The following are a few key statements in the draft of the meeting of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development.
1. On the basis of good houses, promote the construction of "four good" houses, good communities, good communities and good urban areas.
2. Promote the ...... of good house construction through the reform of construction methodsCreate a good model of the house.
3. Improve engineering construction standards, focus on building good houses, issue residential project specifications, start from building floor height, elevators, sound insulation, green, intelligent, barrier-free, etc., improve residential construction standards, and promote engineering construction standards to "go global" in combination with the needs of foreign engineering projects along the "Belt and Road".
4. Strengthen the drive of science and technology, study the future-oriented good house construction technology, organize the construction of a new batch of key laboratories and engineering technology innovation centers and other scientific and technological innovation platforms, and accelerate the implementation of "digital housing and construction".
At last year's "National Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Construction" (due to the impact of the epidemic, the actual time is January 2023), the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has been emphasizing "good", of which "good houses" have appeared 4 times in the draft.
Why the sudden emphasis on "good houses" in 2023?
In fact, it is to adapt to the major transformation of real estate and find long-term meal tickets for the entire industry.
At present, our housing stock is large enough, and there are still a lot of inventory, but due to the impact of the "7090 policy" and new housing price limits, many housing quality is not high, and there are more problems in the communities completed before 2000.
It is impossible to change the principle of housing for living, not for speculation. How can we make a market that has basically solved the problem of "whether there is any" continue to pull the cart for China's economy?Of course, it's the renewal of the product.
It's like encouraging you to change your phone, car, or home appliances, and you can change your house in the future.
Therefore, the meeting of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development proposed to strengthen the "science and technology driven" and "research on the future-oriented good house construction technology".In addition, the building floor height, elevators, sound insulation, green, intelligent, barrier-free and other aspects to improve the standard of residential construction.
For example, in the current residences, most of the floor heights are 28 meters, only some mansions do it 3 meters or more. Increasing the height of the floor can improve the living experience, and also provide space for fine decoration and intelligence.
Problems such as poor sound insulation of houses and few elevators (easy to break) have always been pain points for rigid housing, which has caused many neighborhood conflicts. As for green and intelligent, there is also a lot of room for improvement in the future.
In fact, there is another point that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development did not mention. Here, once again, I strongly recommend that the parking space configuration of future urban residences must be 1:1 or more. Moreover, 1 parking space corresponds to 1 house, which is mandatory to bind, so as to avoid speculation of parking spaces.
In today's urban life, the importance of parking spaces has reached the same level as kitchens and bathrooms, can we allow the kitchen and bathroom of a house to be disassembled and sold?Are residents from outside the neighborhood allowed to fry the kitchen and bathroom?The ratio of parking spaces should be at least 1:13 or more is considered a suitable community to live in.
Note that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is talking about the "four good", in addition to good houses, there are also good communities, good communities, and good urban areas.
What makes a good community?If the floor area ratio is too high, it is not counted, if the supporting facilities are not up to standard, and if the garden is too poor, it is not counted. Coupled with the redefinition of good communities and good urban areas, the future business opportunities for real estate are almost endless.
The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's emphasis on "good housing" means that after real estate enters a new era, improved housing will be the focus of development. Use "good houses" to induce capable families to change houses, thereby driving the development of the real estate industry and increasing future business opportunities.
What is the result?Of course, it is the obsolescence and depreciation of the "rigid demand housing" built in the past few years.
As a result, no matter how many homes there are in China, there are unlimited opportunities for improved and upgraded houses.
The first to be eliminated were pre-2000 houses. There are at least 3 billion square meters of such houses in the country.
Since the beginning of this year, the official has relaxed the floor area ratio of 10 or less for the approval of the community, which is equivalent to the lifting of the "ban on villas". In the future, perhaps one day there will be a villa-type living form.
As long as you have money, there will always be a place to spend it.
The new high-quality homes are first and foremost aimed at wealthy families. For ordinary families, the improvement plan of the old community is also being implemented, which is equivalent to conservative ** (not demolished and rebuilt).
The latest statement on real estate at the latest meeting of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is:
It is necessary to adhere to the positioning that houses are for living, not for speculation, and adapt to the new situation of major changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market.
Stabilize the real estate market, adhere to city-specific policies, one city, one policy, and precise policies, meet the demand for rigid and improved housing, optimize real estate policies, continue to do a good job in ensuring the delivery of buildings, ensuring people's livelihood and stability, properly handle the risks of real estate enterprises, and rectify the order of the real estate market.
Construct a new model of real estate development, establish a new mechanism for the linkage of "people, housing, land and money", improve the basic system of the whole life cycle of housing from development and construction to maintenance and use, implement the construction of the "three major projects", accelerate the solution of the housing problems of new citizens, young people and migrant workers, and make efforts to build good houses and create a new track in the housing field.
In other words, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development still emphasizes "housing for living, not speculation", but compared with the last annual meeting draft, the "strict control of speculation and speculation" has been deleted. Because now there is really no one to speculate on real estate anymore, and the top priority is to encourage everyone to buy a house.
This year's conference draft twice emphasized "one city, one policy" when referring to "city-specific policies", which was not mentioned at the last annual meeting. It shows that in the next one year, the real estate policy will be more personalized and differentiated.
Let's look at the high-frequency words of the "National Financial Work Conference" - "tight days".
In terms of finances, the "tight life" has been raised for several years. Therefore, it is not unusual for this word to appear in the conference draft. Strangely, last year's meeting draft appeared only once, but this year it appeared 6 times!
The details are as follows:1. Adhere to the tight life of party and government organs, vigorously optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure, and firmly adhere to the bottom line of the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level.
2. Improving quality and efficiency is mainly in the ......implementation of the requirements of tight days, optimizing the structure of financial expenditure, and strengthening performance management
3. It is necessary to strictly implement the concept of saving and living a tight life, improve the system of living a tight life, strictly implement the tight life, and strengthen the supervision of a tight life.
The so-called "living a tight life" means that the limited financial funds are used on the cutting edge and on the bottom line of the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level, rather than on dispensable buildings, halls, halls, conferences, travel, and so on.
Real estate is the "artifact of taxation" in China today, and various revenues from real estate account for about 50% of local revenue. When there is an inflection point in real estate, the pressure on local fiscal revenue increases sharply, and it is inevitable to live a tight life.
*At the Economic Work Conference, it was proposed to "actively implement fiscal policies, moderate strengthening, improving quality and efficiency" in 2024, but did not explain "moderate afterburner" and "improving quality and efficiency".
In this regard, the Ministry of Finance gave a detailed interpretation:
Moderate afterburner, mainly to maintain appropriate expenditure intensity, release positive signals;Reasonably arrange the scale of investment and give full play to the amplification effectIncrease the intensity of balanced transfer payments, and firmly adhere to the bottom line of the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level;Optimize and adjust tax policies to improve accuracy and pertinence.
Improving quality and efficiency is mainly in the implementation of the requirements of a tight life, optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditure, strengthening performance management, strict financial and economic discipline, enhancing fiscal sustainability, and strengthening policy coordination, so as to promote the legalization, scientificization, standardization, and standardization of financial management, and spend the same money to achieve greater results.
For now, fiscal policy space is slightly greater than monetary policy in 2024, and the deficit ratio is estimated to be set at 3Around 8%, the issuance of national bonds and local bonds will continue to increase.
In addition, it cannot be ruled out that the macro policy "unexpectedly" in 2024 will suddenly strengthen, that is, it will exceed the current statements and estimates.