Recently, China's real estate industry announcedTwo authoritative data, once again aroused people's attention to the property market.
Policy Review
First of all, according to the statistics of the China Index Research Institute,From January to October 2023, more than 200 provinces, cities (counties) across the country have optimized and adjusted their real estate policies, and introduced more than 500 regulatory measures. It is worth noting that the regulatory policies introduced by the property market this year are not to limit housing prices and sales, but to encourage house purchases by reducing the down payment ratio, reducing loan interest rates, and introducing measures such as "recognising houses without recognising loans". This is significantly different from the thinking of the previous property market control measures.
However, it is confusing that while the property market has recovered quickly once there was a correction in the past, it seems that it is now unable to regain its former glory. After entering 2023, the transaction volume of new and second-hand houses has seen a large decline, and ** has also shown a continuous downward trend.
Secondly, according to the "Guiding Opinions on Planning and Construction of Affordable Housing" issued by the People's Republic of ChinaChina plans to build 6 million new affordable housing units in the next five years, mainly in 35 cities with a population of more than 3 million will take the lead in piloting. When a large number of affordable housing enters the market, it will alleviate the housing demand of a large part of those who just need to buy a house, so that eligible people can live in the city at a lower cost.
These official signals have an important impact on the future direction of the property market. Industry insiders pointed outBy 2024, the property market may change beyond many people's imagination, and three major trends may emerge. Those who are looking to invest in property for their wealth may need to rethink their strategy.
Lawyer's point of view
The first trend: the depreciation of property values in third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities will accelerate.
In the past period, due to the economic development of first- and second-tier cities attracting a large influx of people, the supply of housing has exceeded demand, and housing prices have continued to be **. In the process, many third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities have also followed the first- and second-tier cities**.
However, what we need to understand is that first- and second-tier cities have their high economic level and strong industrial strength, so they have high salaries, many job opportunities, and reasonable housing prices. However, it is unreasonable for third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities to have housing prices over-speculated when jobs and wages are relatively low.
When buyers return to rationality, for those small cities with underdeveloped industries and continuous population loss, housing prices are likely to appear sharply**. In particular, properties located in the suburbs will be less resilient to declines.
The second trend: it is difficult to find houses in old communities
With the increase in new housing, especially the construction of affordable housing, the competitiveness of housing in old communities has gradually weakened. On the one hand, home buyers have higher requirements for living quality and are no longer satisfied with the poor conditions provided by the old community. On the other hand, the number of new homes being driven is increasing, attracting the attention and demand of a large number of home buyers.
The housing in the old community is also limited by its own conditions. The longevity of these complexes, the relatively poor condition of the houses, and the lack of modern design and facilities have made buyers lose interest. In addition, since the old community is located in the center of the city, the transportation and living facilities are relatively good, and buyers are more inclined to choose a new house that is more convenient and comfortable.
The third trend: it is more difficult to monetize high-rise buildings
With the deepening of urbanization, people have begun to pay more attention to the comfort and convenience of the living environment. Although high-rise buildings are very common in cities, due to their own characteristics, some buyers have begun to prefer multi-storey houses. Factors such as the ease of use and safety issues of elevators in high-rise residences have made some buyers take a wait-and-see attitude towards them.
At the same time, multi-storey homes are usually more popular with home buyers because they have better privacy and quality of living. Multi-storey homes, despite their relative low profile, are designed with a greater focus on the comfort and quality of life of their occupants. Buyers' requirements for living quality are constantly increasing, and high-rise buildings are difficult to meet their needs.
In short, for those who just need to buy a house, buying a house is a problem that must be faced. When considering whether or not to buy a house,You need to make decisions based on your own situation. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the regulatory policies of the property market and the changes in the relationship between market supply and demandin order to make informed decisions.