1. In addition, the Fed's interest rate cut may be delayed, resulting in a depreciation of more than 220 basis points in the US dollar and RMB, which will also be bearish.
This week has entered mid-December, and the financial tensions at the end of the year will be more serious, and in addition to the important economic data from China and the United States due in the middle of the year, the data should not be optimistic. As a result, it is unlikely that the stock price will reverse before New Year's Day.
2. Over-the-counter funds entered the market this week, and the SSE 50 ETF hit a new high.
The data shows that over-the-counter funds enter the bargain**. Among them, the share of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange ** ETFs and cross-border ETFs increased by about 17.6 billion, with a net inflow of about 13.9 billionThe share of SSE 50 ETF** exceeded 30 billion, reaching a new high. Semiconductor and core business technology ETFs were higher, while livestock and pharmaceuticals ETFs were sold off.
3. CPI and PPI were announced in November, both of which declined.
Judging from the specific data, the CPI decreased by 0 year-on-year and month-on-month5%；The PPI fell by 3% in a year and 03%。On average, from January to November, China's CPI was 03%, and PPI fell 3 year-on-year1%。
This decline was mainly due to downward volatility in food and energy**. Excluding food and energy**, the core CPI was 0 year-on-year6%, the same increase as in October, continuing to maintain a modest increase.
Fourth, the U.S. employment data was better than expected.
In the past, the market expected the Fed to cut interest rates by July next year, but according to the analysis of this employment data, the Fed may have to postpone the rate cut, which will be bearish. However, after the U.S. stock market opened lower**. U.S. stocks have no impact, and A-shares may not have the same impact. This has no effect, because the Fed has not cut interest rates, and the probability of a rate cut is low, otherwise the huge interest rate differential will only trigger an accelerated withdrawal of foreign capital, so the A** field can only expect the reserve ratio to fall at the end of the year!
5. Looking forward to 2024, most private equity bigwigs have recently said that there is no need to be pessimistic about the market outlook, and the market opportunities outweigh the risks.
Wu Weizhi said that the abandoned new energy industry chain is still in a clear growth direction in the cyclical growth. Although the PV industry is under great pressure in the third and fourth quarters of this year, the installed capacity this year is 400 GW, and it will reach 1,500 GW in a few years, which is three or four times the growth space. At present, the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles is less than 20%, and there is still room for growth of four to five times.
At present, we are more optimistic about some high-quality growth stocks, such as innovative drugs and artificial intelligence, which are the pillars of high-quality growth. There is also cyclical growth related to "carbon neutrality" that deserves our attention.
Although the U.S. stock market was sharply ** on Friday, the U.S. dollar index** weighed on the domestic exchange rate. Coupled with the poor domestic economic data, Monday's ** slightly lower opening is also timely. However, in anticipation of a decline in the reserve requirement ratio, the market is expected to open lower and then slightly**.
On Monday, excluding the impact of sudden major news, the main operating range of the market was 2960-2980 points, the extreme operating range was 2950-2990 points, and the maximum volatility was 40 points. It is expected that the probability of opening slightly lower is greater (it is expected to open near 2965 points), and after a slight consolidation at the opening, it will gradually hit the 5-day descending line, thus forming a small white line that opens from the bottom and moves upward.