In the economic sphere, ** has always been a difficult task. In 1969, some Western economists tried to rank the world's GDP 50 years later. However, compared to the actual situation, there is a huge error in theirs. According to these economists, Japan's total GDP will reach 21 by 20195 trillion US dollars, ranking first in the world, and the United States is close behind, with a total GDP of about 21Around 5 trillion US dollars, ranking second. In addition, the results surprisingly put West Germany's total GDP in third place, with an estimated GDP of 91 trillion dollars;Brazil is in fifth place with an estimated 305 trillion dollars;The Philippines is in sixth place with an estimated 295 trillion dollars;Indonesia is in ninth place with a projected 26 trillion dollars. However, China, as one of the world's major powers, did not make it into the top 10 of the list. However, the reality turns out that these ** data are far from the truth.
Specifically, only three countries have relatively accurate data. The first is the United States, which has a total GDP of 215 trillion dollars, with the actual situation of 21$38 trillion is very close. Despite the mis-ranking of the U.S. economy, in reality it has always held the number one position in the world. This is followed by India, with a total GDP of 295 trillion dollars, with the actual situation of 283 trillion dollars close. In addition, France's GDP is also relatively accurate, with a total GDP of 25 trillion dollars, while the reality is 2$73 trillion.
However, the data for other countries is far from the reality. For example, Japan's total GDP is 215 trillion dollars, but the reality is only 5$12 trillion, a gap of more than three times. In addition, the GDP of West Germany and the Soviet Union is also higher, but the reality is that these two countries no longer exist, and the total GDP of the main countries is also much lower than the data. The Philippines' data is even more outrageous, with a total GDP of 295 trillion US dollars, while in fact only 376.8 billion US dollars, ranking 34th. Brazil, Indonesia, South Korea and other countries are also far from the actual situation. The most striking is the ** of China, according to which the total GDP of China is certainly lower than that of France by 25 trillion dollars, unable to enter the top 10 in the world. However, in fact, by 2019, China's total GDP had reached 1428 trillion US dollars, ranking second in the world. These huge errors raise suspicions about the economy.
So why was the ** result of 1969 so misguided?The root cause of this is that these are based on a pre-1969 data model. At that time, China experienced some special circumstances, and the GDP growth rate was very slow, or even negative. As a result, Western economists are very pessimistic about China's economic growth prospects. However, since 1978, when China began to implement reform and opening up, China's economy has experienced rapid development for more than 40 years. By 2019, China's total GDP had reached 14$28 trillion, or 16 percent of the world's total GDP27%。Over the past 50 years, China's GDP has grown 178 times, with an average annual growth rate of 356 times. This proves that the economy often relies on the failure of past data models.
In fact, the world is constantly changing, and so are the political, economic, demographic, and other aspects of the country. As a result, countries that appear to be "promising" may not be able to achieve good development, but on the contrary, undervalued countries may usher in a period of rapid development. **Data often does not accurately reflect this dynamic. Therefore, data for a distant future such as 2050 or 2075 may be unreliable. It is worth mentioning that the investment bank Goldman Sachs has conducted a global GDP ranking in 2050 based on current economic conditions and trends, but after 26 years, the global economic landscape may change dramatically, resulting in a very different result. Therefore, we should not blindly believe in these results, but should look at the problem from a dynamic perspective in order to draw accurate conclusions.