The U.S. is engaged in an unprecedented financial harvest, using interest rate hikes to lure dollars back from around the world. This looks like a doomed battle, as the United States is unrivaled in financial power.
But things are not so simple, and the harvesting operation of the United States this time makes people feel very unnatural, and there is a feeling of powerlessness. For example, this rate hike was very large, with a 50 basis point increase all at once, which is rare in past rate hike cycles.
The United States may have done so because its routines have no longer worked. And now that the interest rate hike has officially begun, it has been increased twice, and the global financial market is also adjusting, which is a road of no return, regardless of success or failure, we must stick to the end.
However, judging from various indications, there are many uncertainties in this financial harvest, which the United States has never encountered before. So what will the United States do if it fails?I think there must be. From some of its arrangements, we can also infer what its internal assessment is.
Let's take a look at what will happen next if the U.S. harvest succeeds.
Over the past few years, there is one word that has been mentioned so often, and that is the new Cold War. This is a strategic concept of the United States for a new era, and this strategic concept is based on the success of the dollar tightening. Therefore, for the future of the United States and even the world, the effect of dollar tightening will determine the success or failure of the new Cold War strategy.
So what kind of result can be considered a successful harvest?
In the historical dollar tightening cycle, in order to achieve a successful financial harvest, at least several financial conditions must be met, I had a simple estimate in my previous article "A Century of Changes Accelerating, Russia Doesn't Play According to the Routine, and the United States Will Enter the Countdown to the Crisis in Advance", there is a simple estimate that the Fed will raise interest rates to 2-2Before 5%, the U.S. stock market cannot collapse, which is the core condition.
Around this core, there needs to be funds from other parties to supplement it. We all know that interest rate cuts are to release water to the market and increase liquidity. Then in turn, raising interest rates is to collect water from the market and reduce liquidity. Now that the United States is going to raise interest rates on the one hand, and the U.S. stock market is at a high level and cannot collapse, it is necessary to ensure that the U.S. financial market has sufficient liquidity to achieve these two goals at the same time.
At this time, the global dollar repatriation is needed to provide this liquidity. In other words, the scale of the global dollar repatriation must be able to offset the liquidity of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, so that the liquidity in the market will not shrink, and the US stock market can also achieve the final change of hands at a high level.
In this process, allowing the global repatriation of funds into the U.S. Treasury and the U.S. market for safe-haven is a key step to achieve a high-level changeover, as long as this step is achieved, then the interest rate hike is half the success. Why is this process necessary to raise the interest rate of the dollar to 2-2What about 5% before completion?
It is because this is a balance point between the cost of funds and the rate of return, once this interest rate level is exceeded, it will be difficult to maintain the yield of US stocks because of the rise in the cost of funds. At this time, there will be more people selling than **.
When market expectations change, it is the second half of the dollar tightening. The main goal of the second half is to use a small amount of chips to bring down the U.S. stocks, which are the center of the global financial market, and many financial products are related to it, and the collapse of the U.S. stock market can lead to a sharp decline in the value of a large number of financial products, which will cause a liquidity crisis in the global market in a short period of time, and then drag down the global market.
At this time, the funds that were previously cashed out at a high level have become the king of cash. Wait for the crisis to continue to develop, and then go and buy the core assets of other countries under the protection of American aircraft and artillery. This is a routine that the United States has played many times before. Why does this step have to be taken, and this step has to be successful?
It is because in the experience of the United States, it is not enough to have aircraft and artillery, but it is necessary to control the core assets of the other party, so as to use this as a platform to reconcile with the relevant capital groups, and then unite to control the discourse of all aspects of the country. Without these as a basis, the United States wants to engage in a new Cold War, which is actually very risky.
Because everyone's interests and positions are different, we can only share weal and woe, and it is difficult to help each other in the same boat. And if Western countries cannot closely integrate with the United States, it is better not to engage in this new Cold War, because if it is done, it will only die faster. Therefore, the new Cold War strategy of the United States is actually just a big pie, and whether and how to do it is now very nervously watching the Fed.
If the Fed's tightening succeeds, many of the things we see today will have a sequel later, and the Western camp will be taken by the United States at the core asset and financial level. After these are done, then there is a great possibility that the matter of a new Cold War will advance rapidly, and a new Iron Curtain may appear in the west along the border between Russia and Belarus. From the east to the Middle East and Africa, it needs to be contested.
For this world, the evolution of various countries and ethnic groups from scattered small tribes to integration is a major trend that has evolved over thousands of years. Unfortunately, however, this kind of regression of globalization may also be a reality that must be accepted at this stage. If the United States succeeds in harvesting, it is likely that it will do whatever it takes for hegemony.