The current frequent attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels have heightened tensions in the southern Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait region. First, on November 19, under the pretext of inspection, they seized the Israeli cargo ship "Galaxy Leader" bound for the Red Sea and brought it back to the port of Hodeidah. Subsequently, the Houthis launched a series of attacks on cargo ships in the waters of the Red Sea, and their tactics continued to escalate.
Earlier this month, they announced drone and anti-ship missile attacks on the merchant ships Unity Explorer and Ninth in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait;On 11 December, another Norwegian-flagged tanker was attackedOn December 14, it claimed to have carried out an attack on a container ship owned by shipping giant Maersk. In just one month, more than five merchant ships have been attacked.
The wreck image circulating online is actually that of a Panamanian-flagged commercial container tanker in the Red Sea last year. On December 16, the Houthis set a record number of attacks on merchant ships, when they announced that they had used anti-ship ballistic missiles to attack the Liberian-flagged merchant ship Mediterranean Palace III, severely damaging the ship on the spot. However, at the moment there is no ** confirmation of the scenario of the attack on the "Mediterranean Palace III" by an anti-ship ballistic missile and the situation after the attack.
A screenshot circulated online showed a huge fireball coming out of a merchant ship after it was attacked, but it appears to have happened earlier. The US Navy confirmed that an anti-ship ballistic missile launched by the Houthis successfully hit a merchant ship, and the destroyer USS Carney failed to intercept the missile, witnessing the missile hit the Mediterranean Palace III. The attack unexpectedly became the first case in the history of mankind of successfully using anti-ship ballistic missiles against surface ships.
At the same time, Ukrainian troops sank a tank landing ship of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy using "Dot-U" tactical missiles in the port of Berdyansk. The Houthi anti-ship ballistic missile attack is the first successful anti-ship ballistic missile attack in human history with complete elements.
Unlike the "Dot-U" tactical missile used by the Ukrainian army last year, the "Dot-U" does not have terminal guidance capabilities, and an old tank landing ship of the Russian Navy's Black Sea Fleet is only moored at the berth and does not move, so it is not much different from striking stationary targets. In contrast, the anti-ship ballistic missiles used by the Houthis this time have terminal guidance capabilities, and the merchant ship "Mediterranean Palace III" that is said to have been attacked is in a state of motion, and the gold content is much higher.
The Houthis have always had the Persian Gulf-2 anti-ship ballistic missile imported from Iran, and it was even displayed at the Houthi military parade in 2022. The so-called Iranian "Persian Gulf-2" anti-ship ballistic missiles are actually a refined version of the Fateh-110 313 series of solid-fuel short- and medium-range ballistic missiles.
These ballistic missiles have undergone several generations of improvements, including a reduction in the weight of the missile structure, an increase in the precision strike function of the terminal stage, an increase in the range to about 550 kilometers, and a diversification of warheads. Therefore, the Houthis' ASBM (anti-ship ballistic missile) attack on merchant ships marks a major breakthrough in the field of missile technology.
Iran's Persian Gulf-2 anti-ship ballistic missiles are comparable in performance to some modifications of the Fateh series of missiles, with a range of no more than 500 kilometers, and may be guided by infrared imaging or semi-active lasers. Considering the angle of incidence of the missile, the laser irradiation may require the drone to irradiate the target in the air. The missile carries a large semi-armor-piercing warhead weighing 500 kilograms, and the reentry speed is about 3 to 4 times the speed of sound, which is barely adequate.
Therefore, Iran, immediately after the development of the "Persian Gulf-2" anti-ship ballistic missile, launched the development of a successor model. According to information announced by Iran at the beginning of this year, it has developed an anti-ship ballistic missile with a range of up to 1,500 kilometers and a terminal reentry speed of more than eight times the speed of sound, which is most likely an anti-ship modification of the land-based short- and medium-range ballistic missile Dizful. It can be said without a doubt that compared to the "Persian Gulf-2", this performance has increased significantly.
Considering that Iran has developed a new generation of anti-ship ballistic missiles, it is not surprising that the previous generation of the Persian Gulf-2 was handed over to the Houthis for use in attacking merchant ships. In the case of anti-ship ballistic missiles, the biggest benefit of the Houthis' use of such missiles against ships is to increase confidence in the use of anti-ship ballistic missiles against surface ships.
Although the Houthis are in the narrow waters along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern mouth of the Red Sea, they can monitor the situation of ships throughout the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by placing small drones. This, coupled with the fact that merchant ships must turn on the Automatic Identification System (AIS) when driving in confined waters, provides the Houthis with a complete picture and reduces critical situational awareness.
Although the Persian Gulf anti-ship ballistic missile may require the use of UAVs for semi-active laser guidance in practical use, this may make the entire anti-ship ballistic missile kill chain a weak link. However, although there may be some problems with the performance of the Persian Gulf-2 anti-ship ballistic missile, once the destroyers of the US Navy arrive, it should not be a problem to intercept it with ship-to-air missiles such as the Standard-3 6.
For the first time, the Houthis successfully launched a ship-raid operation, using anti-ship ballistic missiles against surface ships, a feat that successfully demonstrated the practicality of the technology and won them great confidence. From a maritime military strategy point of view, the Houthis have actually demonstrated their ability to "dominate the sea from the shore" by using anti-ship ballistic missiles against merchant ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
This underscores the strategic importance of new means of warfare in modern warfare, forcing the U.S. Navy to adopt a major engagement approach to maintain a strategic balance, indicating that the Houthis have the strategic upper hand. In the past, shore control of the sea relied either on vulnerable light ships or on air power, but there were significant vulnerabilities in both approaches.
The Houthis used Mi-17*** to carry special operators for boarding and inspection, but halted the operation when it was discovered that US special forces had arrived in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. They knew well about the destroyers, anti-aircraft missiles, and special forces of the US Navy, so they avoided direct confrontation, calming down the Red Sea for a while. Just when the U.S. military thought they had scared off the Houthis' ship raids, the Houthis delivered unexpected blows to the other side with anti-ship missiles and anti-ship ballistic missiles.
This means that the task of protecting the smooth passage of the Red Sea is no longer an easy deterrent mission, and now requires the use of Standard-3 and Standard-6 to basically guarantee the completion of the mission, and it may not be 100% successful. The U.S. Navy has even sent aircraft carriers to the waters off Yemen to monitor the Houthis' anti-ship ballistic missile activity, and possibly even deliver military strikes. The latest information shows that the US Navy aircraft carrier "Eisenhower" has sailed into the Gulf of Aden.
This series of operations not only demonstrates the potential threat of new means of warfare, but also confirms that the tactical and strategic role they play in modern warfare may be more important than we anticipate. There are still Houthi attacks in the southern part of the Red Sea. Four of the world's top five shipping companies have announced that all their merchant ships will avoid the region and take the Cape of Good Hope route instead. Although this has affected us to some extent, we can use the China-Europe freight train as an alternative.
In stark contrast, the situation facing Israel is significantly more dire, while some European countries, especially those involved in energy routes, have also been severely affected. Therefore, only Israel and Europe in the world have reached a consensus on the fight against the damage. As for how the U.S. Navy will respond next, we will continue to pay close attention.