In the first 11 months of 2023, the installed capacity of photovoltaics reached nearly 164GW, and the superimposed modules** of the high-boom track went all the way down, and the enthusiasm of investment owners to stock up continued to rise.
According to public information, in 2023, major power generation companies will issue a total of module tenders for PV module centralized procurement and decentralized projects, with a total scale of more than 296GW, and if superimposed on last year's unrated centralized procurement projects, the total scale will be as high as 332GW. This compares to around 150GW last year, which means that market demand has almost doubled.
Owner situation
From the perspective of the bidding body, the "five large and six small" energy central enterprises are still the big bidders, affected by factors such as the rise in installed capacity and the decline of modules, the procurement scale has soared.
According to the statistics of public information, the above figure shows the annual bidding of enterprises above 5GW).
Specifically, CNNC and its subsidiaries CNNC (Nanjing), CNNC Huineng, Xinhua Hydropower, and CNNC (Shanghai) respectively launched centralized procurement above designated size, with a total scale of bidding and procurement of more than 32GW.
Huaneng Group followed closely behind, with a total bidding and procurement scale of 26GW, including the 2022 PV module (second batch) framework agreement procurement that has been awarded, the 2023 PV module (first batch) framework agreement procurement, and the 2024 PV module framework agreement procurement bidding that has not yet been determined.
The annual bidding and procurement scale of China Energy Group, Datang Group and State Power Investment Corporation all exceeded 20GW, and the annual bidding and procurement scale of China Three Gorges Group, Huadian Group and China Energy Construction Corporation was also above 10GW.
In addition, emerging forces such as PetroChina, China Coal Energy, Guangdong Construction Engineering Group, Jingneng Group, Shuifa Group, and Guangdong Energy Group are also increasing the procurement of photovoltaic equipment.
Temporal distribution
From the perspective of bidding time, except for January, the monthly bidding is at the 10GW level.
According to publicly available information statistics).
Specifically, the bidding scale in December was the highest, with China Power Construction and Huaneng Group preparing goods in advance for 2024, launching 42GW and 10GW centralized procurement projects respectively, plus the centralized procurement bidding of China Resources, China National Nuclear Corporation, State Power Investment Corporation and other enterprises, with a total monthly bidding scale of 62GW.
The scale of bidding was followed by the start of construction in March, when the total scale of bidding and procurement reached 42GW, including more than 10 enterprises such as State Power Investment Corporation, Huaneng Group, China National Nuclear Group, Datang Group, and Pinggao Group.
This was followed by April, July, August, September and October, which also saw tenders above 20GW.
According to publicly available information statistics).
April, June and December are the higher months for bidding, with a scale of more than 30GW, followed by February, September and November, with a scale of more than 20GW.
Components**
Due to the rapid decline of polysilicon and the rapid expansion of production capacity in various sectors, modules** have been swooping downward since the beginning of the year.
According to publicly available information statistics).
Specifically, at the beginning of this year, the module ** was still 1Around 8 yuan, in less than a year, the module ** fell by half, especially since October, the module bidding ** fell below 1 yuan for the first time, and 09933 yuan w, entering December, the module ** continued to decline, and many projects were generally below 1 yuan.
Taking the second centralized procurement of photovoltaic modules from 2023 to 2024 on December 6 as an example, the module companies participating in the bidding are generally lower than 095 yuan watts, and even some companies quoted 0The low price of about 86 yuan watts.
Winning bidders
With the growing number of cross-border "light chasers", there are many new faces in the bidding for photovoltaic modules in 2023. According to Polaris Solar PV Network based on public data, only in the centralized procurement of various central state-owned enterprises, 64 enterprises have been included.
On the contrary, instead of being dispersed by the increase in intertruders, the market is becoming more and more concentrated in the leading groups. Previously, Polaris Solar PV Network found that among the nearly 43GW of module winning bidders, the TOP10 companies accounted for 74% of the orders "chartered".
According to the statistics of public information, the above figure counts the top 15 module companies according to the number of finalists).
From the perspective of the whole year, only from the number of finalists (excluding the specific scale of winning bids), Yiyi New Energy, Jinko Solar, Tongwei, JA Solar, Trina Solar, LONGi, Chint New Energy, and Risen Energy are the enterprises with the most centralized procurement by central state-owned enterprises.
According to the statistics of the scale of winning bids, the above figure counts module companies with a bid-winning scale of more than 1GW).
From the perspective of the statistics of projects with a clear bid-winning scale, LONGi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, and Tongwei have the highest bid-winning scale, with about 15GW, 13GW, and 12GW respectively, followed by Yiyi New Energy, Chint New Energy, JA Solar, and Trina Solar, with a bid-winning scale of about 89gw、7.5gw、6.9gw、6.3gw。
Since entering the module sector last year, Tongwei's business has soared, and it has become a top-ranked module company in China, and a new energy company, as a "new first-line" star enterprise, has become the most shortlisted company in this year's bidding and centralized procurement (only in public information).
Component specifications
Although major module manufacturers are launching 600WP+ and even 700WP+ power segment modules in 2023, high-power modules of 500WP and above still firmly occupy the mainstream in the bidding and centralized procurement of central state-owned enterprises.
According to the statistics of public information, the above figure is based on the analysis of the bidding project of 150GW statistically available product power).
According to the statistics of Polaris Solar PV Network (product power can be counted), the bidding scale share of small power modules below 500WP will only account for 1% in 2023, mainly for some lightweight flexible module bidding and centralized procurement. 500-580WP modules have the highest share of bidding scale, accounting for more than 90%, while 580WP and above larger power modules are gradually recognized by power station owners, accounting for more than 7%.
N-type trend
According to the incomplete statistics of Polaris Solar PV Network, in 2023, the bidding scale for the centralized procurement of photovoltaic modules will be about 296GW, of which the bidding scale for N-type modules will exceed 133GW, accounting for about 45% of the total scale.
According to publicly available information statistics).
In particular, in the second half of the year, the bidding scale of N-type modules exceeded 10GW, and in December, it was as high as more than 40GW, indicating that the trend of N-type cells replacing P-type cells is taking shape.
According to publicly available information statistics).
* Aspects, from the beginning of the year 192 yuan w to the current 1The average price of about 03 yuan W, the bidding of n-type photovoltaic modules also continued to fall, which is also an important factor for many power plant companies to focus on n-type modules.
According to publicly available information statistics).
According to Polaris Solar's analysis based on public data, the difference between the average bidding price of n-type modules and the average bidding price of P-type modules in the same bid segment (or batch) remained basically 0Around 1 yuan w, entering October, this price difference has been 0Around 03 yuan W, in many projects, this price difference is almost none, and even N-type modules** are lower than those of the same batch of P-type modules.