China's economic growth rate is as high as 55%, but why the unemployment rate exceeds 20%, the CPI is 0, and exports fall by 124%
China's economic growth rate in the first half of the year was 55%, with a total size of 593 trillion, in the case of most people pessimistic about the economy, the total economic volume still achieved a high growth, which is not easy, but this data seems to contradict some data, for example, in the past June, China's youth unemployment rate of 16-24 years old rose again, reaching an astonishing 213%, and the decline in exports has further expanded, with a decline of up to 124%, at the same time, the growth rate of CPI, which measures the level of household consumption, has dropped to 0%, that is, household consumption has almost zero growth, and most people are trying to maintain a basic life, and are unwilling to spend more.
So why in the case of economic growth is not bad, some detailed indicators to measure economic development are getting worse and worse, whether the growth rate of economic aggregate is fake, or some specific data are fake, how to understand these data, let's look at them from three different perspectives.
First, China's economic growth is not at odds with the record high unemployment rate, because China's economic structure is changing. Generally speaking, every percentage point of growth in the total economic output will correspondingly lead to the employment of 1.5 million people, that 5The economic growth rate of 5% should lead to the employment of at least 8 million people, but in fact it is not, not only the employed population has not risen, but has also declined with economic growth, and the reasons for this are not difficult to understand, from the following two factors can be concluded:
One is because China's economic structure has changed, especially the structure of exports is very different from the past, in the past, China's main export commodities are labor-intensive products, such as clothing, shoes and hats, mobile phones, low-end mechanical and electrical, etc., although this type of industry has a low profit margin, but can solve a lot of jobs. But this is no longer the case, especially since last year, when the main commodities of China's exports have gradually changed from labor-intensive goods in the past to automobiles, photovoltaics, batteries and other products, even if the total export volume remains the same, this will also cause a large number of unemployment, because these industries need fewer people under the same output value, let alone the factor of declining exports.
The other is because of the improvement of production efficiency, with the development of science and technology, a lot of programmed work has been gradually replaced by machines, especially the assembly of the production line, the efficiency of a robot can replace the work of hundreds of people, in addition, such as artificial intelligence, big data, Internet e-commerce and other technology development, but also let a lot of programmed copywriting, sales work is gradually replaced, so we will see that although the total economic volume has increased, but the unemployed people are more strange phenomenon, which is not a good thing to a certain extent。
Secondly, economic growth, while the corresponding consumption did not grow, and even appeared 0% This shows that this year's economic growth has not brought real income growth to most ordinary people, because from the data of the Ministry of Finance and the bank, the value-added tax closely related to enterprises has increased significantly, and even close to the doubling level, but other stamp duty involving market activity has declined across the board, which shows that the increase in the economy is mainly contributed by central state-owned enterprises, and ordinary private enterprises are further shrinking。
In addition, from the point of view of importance, private enterprises contribute about 50% of tax revenue and nearly 70% of jobs, but jobs are decreasing, while the economy is growing, which can only show that the central state-owned enterprises have too many resources, because our currency over-issuance rate has reached 113%, the balance of broad money reached around 280 trillion, but these money did not get by private enterprises, either taken away by the central state-owned enterprises above, or idling in the financial system can not be loaned, which shows that the bank's funds are a little unable to circulate, and the funds cannot be circulated, then it is difficult for most people's income to grow, and naturally they cannot drive consumption.
Finally, the decline in exports may not improve in the short term, because the United States, the world's largest consumer, is deliberately cutting off relations with each other, and China is no longer the largest in the United States Partners, China has been replaced by Mexico, Canada, judging from the latest June data, China's exports to Russia are soaring, exports to other major economies in the world are declining, and the United States has regarded China as the most important competitor, in the foreseeable future, China's exports may decline further, so it is understandable that the world's major investment banks have lowered China's future economic growth.