Speculating on China's real economic growth
In the 61 years from 1953 to 2013, China's nominal GDP, measured in renminbi, grew to 35216 times, China's per capita real GDP increased to 5155 times (average annual growth of 6.)67%), the price of the 61 years ** 683 times.
In the 61 years from 1953 to 2013, China's nominal GDP measured in US dollars increased from 54 US dollars (the value of US dollars in 1952, when China's planned economic system had not yet been developed, and the new regime was still in operation for a relatively short time, and the exchange rate at this time was not overvalued or undervalued) to 6959 US dollars (the value of US dollars in 2013, the overvaluation or undervaluation of the RMB exchange rate in 2013 is not large, some people think it is undervalued, some people think it is overvalued, and the author believes that the undervaluation range is 5% nearby, this amplitude is relatively small and does not affect the calculation results of this paragraph), which amounted to 128 in 19529 times.
In 1952, the per capita nominal GDP of the United States was 2,343 US dollars (the value of the dollar of that year), in 2013, the per capita nominal GDP of the United States was 53,001 US dollars, and in the 61 years from 1953 to 2013, the nominal GDP of the United States increased to 22 in 195262 times, the real GDP per capita of the United States grew to 3185 times, the price of the United States ** by 71 times. Therefore, using the dollar value of 1952 to measure the per capita GDP of Chinese, in the 61 years from 1953 to 2013, the per capita GDP increased to 128 in 19529 divided by 71 is equal to 18155 times. This should be China's per capita GDP growth in the 61 years from 1953 to 2013, with an average annual growth rate of about 4 per capita real GDP87%。
Among them, in the 26 years from 1953 to 1978, China's nominal GDP increased in RMB to 3 in 19522 times, China's per capita real GDP increased to 2 in 19528 times, these two figures are very close, which is an extremely slow rate of inflation. In the 26 years from 1953 to 1978, China's nominal GDP, measured in US dollars, grew from $54 to $222 (the value of US dollars in 1978) and to 4 in 195211 times. During this period, the US dollar depreciated against the RMB.
In 1952, the per capita nominal GDP of the United States was $2,343, in 1978 the per capita nominal GDP of the United States was $10,585, and in the 26 years from 1953 to 1978, the nominal GDP of the United States increased to 4 in 195252 times, the real GDP of the United States grew to 18 times, the price of the United States ** by 251 times. Therefore, the per capita GDP of Chinese is measured by the dollar value of 1952, and in the 26 years from 1953 to 1978, the per capita GDP increased to 4 in 195211 divided by 251 is equal to 164 times. This should be close to China's per capita GDP growth in the 26 years from 1953 to 1978, with an average annual growth rate of about 12%。
In the 35 years from 1979 to 2013, China's nominal GDP, measured in renminbi, grew to 110 times that of 1978, and China's real GDP per capita increased to 18 times that of 197838 times, and the price of goods has increased by nearly 6 times in 35 years. In the 35 years from 1979 to 2013, China's nominal GDP grew from $222 to $6,959, to 31 in 197835 times.
In 1978, the per capita nominal GDP of the United States was 10,585 US dollars (the value of US dollars in 1978), in 2013, the per capita nominal GDP of the United States was 53,001 US dollars, and in the 35 years from 1979 to 2013, the nominal GDP of the United States increased to five times that of 1978, and the real GDP of the United States increased to 1 of 1 in 197877 times, the price of the United States ** by 2825 times. Therefore, using the dollar value of 1978 to measure the per capita GDP of Chinese, in the 35 years from 1979 to 2013, the per capita GDP increased to 31 in 197835 divided by 2825 is equal to 111 times. This should be close to China's per capita GDP growth in the 35 years from 1979 to 2013, with an average annual per capita real GDP growth of about 71%。
Since 1953, the real GDP per capita of Chinese has really grown at an average annual rate of 667%, maintaining a high-speed growth state for 61 years, China's current per capita nominal GDP should be around 20,000 US dollars, which is basically a developed country. It can be seen that the real GDP growth rate of Chinese per capita is not so fast. China's own per capita real GDP growth rate is relatively high, and the per capita real GDP of Chinese is lower than that of China's per capita real GDP by referring to the US dollar, which is logically more reasonable, which may be closer to the real GDP growth of Chinese.
In 2013, the real GDP per capita of Chinese was US$11,868, and data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China showed that the real GDP per capita of Chinese increased by 51 from 1953 to 201355 times, which means that China's real GDP per capita in 1952 was US$230, which is significantly lower than the US$604 per capita in the Central African Republic, which has the lowest real GDP per capita in the world in 2013. In 2013, India's real GDP per capita was $5,450, while that of poor Cambodia was $3,056. According to Cambodian data, the per capita real GDP of Cambodia, which had just escaped famine in 1981, was 781 US dollars, that is to say, the per capita real GDP level equivalent to 5 or 600 US dollars in 2013 was a social state on the verge of famine, and the per capita real GDP was less than 500 US dollars, which was a more terrible social state. In other words, the equivalent of $500 in real GDP in 2013 is almost a limit level, and under normal circumstances, no matter how poor, it is difficult to fall below the equivalent of $500 in 2013. China's real GDP per capita in 1953, equivalent to $230 per capita in 2013, is even more incredible, which only shows that China's economic development data since 1952 has been exaggerated, and the overall cumulative increase in China's economy has more than doubled. A similar conclusion can be drawn from the case of India, whose real GDP per capita in 2013 was 5 percent of 19528495 times, which means that India's per capita real GDP in 1952 was 932 US dollars, China's per capita real GDP at that time was lower than India's, not too much, China's per capita real GDP at that time should be more than 500 US dollars.
If we calculate that China's economic growth from 1953 to 2013 was overestimated by double, for example, from 5155 times halved to 25775 times, then China's per capita real GDP growth rate in the past 61 years is 547% compared to 5155 times the 6 of the speculationReal GDP per capita growth was 1.0% lower2 percentage points, which also shows that the rate of inflation is underestimated by 12 percentage points. Actually, it's in accordance with 5The per capita economic growth rate of 47% is also significantly higher than that of the United States and Latin American countries.
In the long run, the per capita real GDP growth rate of countries exceeding that of the United States in the dollar per capita is greater than the combined growth rate of their own per capita real GDP and the depreciation rate of the dollar. For example, if the nominal GDP of each country is measured in terms of the dollar value of the purchasing power of the dollar in 1952, the growth rate of nominal GDP per capita of each country is greater than the growth rate of real GDP per capita.
Therefore, extrapolating the real GDP growth rate of individual countries in dollar value does not significantly underestimate the real GDP growth rate of each country, and for rich countries, the result is significantly overestimated.
For example, Japan's per capita nominal GDP in 1950 was $131, in 2013 it was $38,468, and in 2013 the nominal per capita GDP was 284 times that of 1950. The nominal per capita GDP of the United States in 1950 was $1,979, in 2013 it was $53,001, and in 2013 the nominal per capita GDP was 25 in 19508 times. Real GDP per capita in 2013 was 3 of real GDP per capita in 195046 times. This means that the price level in the United States in 2013 is 75 times. Excluding dollar inflation, this means that Japan's real GDP per capita in 2013 was nearly 38 times that of 1950. This is the growth rate of Japan's per capita GDP based on the value of the dollar. Japan's own real GDP per capita in 2013 is 11 times that of 1950. However, this is also in line with our conclusion above. For rich countries, real GDP growth in dollar terms is markedly larger. This at least shows that the calculation method of this model does not underestimate the real GDP growth rate per capita, which is either overestimated or close to the actual situation. If you use 2013 compared to 1952, it is more convenient. You can do the math for yourself.
For example, South Korea's nominal per capita GDP in 1953 was US$67, in 2013 it was US$25,975, and that its nominal per capita GDP in 2013 was 388 times that of 1950. The nominal per capita GDP of the United States in 1953 was $2,443, in 2013 it was $53,001, and in 2013 it was 21 of the nominal per capita GDP in 19507 times. Real GDP per capita in 2013 was 3 of real GDP per capita in 195009 times. This means that the price level in the United States in 2013 was seven times higher than in 1950. Excluding dollar inflation, this means that South Korea's real GDP per capita in 2013 was 55 times that of 1953. This is the real GDP growth rate per capita of South Korea based on the value of the dollar. South Korea's per capita purchasing power GDP in 2013 is 22 of the GDP per capita in 19539 times. This conclusion is also in line with expectations.
British economist Angus Maddison's estimate of real GDP per capita in Asia, Africa and Latin America in 1950 shows that Chinese mainland ranks lower, ranking higher than some sub-Saharan African countries, but only higher than Mongolia and Myanmar in Asia. At that time, the per capita real GDP of Chinese mainland was US$448 (1990 US dollar value, equivalent to US$713 in 2013), and the per capita real GDP of Taiwan was US$916 (1990 US dollar value, equivalent to 1458 US dollars in 2013). If this more authoritative estimate is closer to the facts, we can judge the degree to which the per capita real GDP growth rate of Chinese is overestimated, and the per capita real GDP growth rate of Chinese from 1953 to 2013 has been expanded by about 3 times, not 5155 times, but an increase of 17 times, in fact, according to the increase of 17 times, it is not small, and the economic development results are great. Overall, many aspects show that our water estimates of economic development are too small and overestimate the growth rate of the economy.