[Introduction].At the end of the year, in terms of domestic livestock and poultry breeding, pig prices are under pressure, and the drive of pickled meat for pig prices is significantly poor, after the winter solstice festival, pickled meat is good for "every protracted day", and the panic of breeding end slaughter has become stronger, and pig prices have shown a "collapse" trend, and pig prices have fallen more than expected. In the egg market, after a short period of egg prices, due to the difficulty of improving demand follow-up, egg prices reversed "face", and the market was at a low level of consolidation1 good news!
First, the pig price "collapse"**
In the hog market, pig prices briefly rose by 14 yesterday36 yuan kg, close to New Year's Day, some farmers thought that pig prices or will appear "tail" trend, but, from the current situation of the market, pig prices are "from the rise into the fall", * showing a trend of more than expected fall!
According to the analysis of institutional data, on December 29, the price of foreign three-yuan pigs fell to 1423 yuan kg, down 013 yuan kg, compared to 14 in the middle of the month72 yuan kg, pig prices have been reduced by 049 yuan kg, pig prices are still in the stage of excessive secondary warning, previously, the official round of storage 230,000 tons of pork, however, the impact on the market is weak, and in recent days, the market bearish sentiment has increased sharply!
On the one hand, after the winter solstice, pork consumption has gradually deteriorated, in particular, the temperature in the south has risen, the curing is good for the lack of further increments, the market demand for fat pigs has deteriorated, the demand for large fat has been insufficient, the operating rate of domestic slaughtering enterprises has gradually decreased, the downstream order volume has decreased, the mentality of receiving goods has weakened, and the surplus phenomenon in the wholesale market has increased
On the other hand, the panic of slaughter at the breeding end has increased, in particular, the price spread of the standard fertilizer has narrowed significantly, the big fat profit is empty, the panic selling mentality at the breeding end has increased, and the competitive slaughter of some head pig enterprises is more intense
Therefore, based on the weakening of consumption profits, the stampede of large pigs at the breeding end has increased, and the price of pigs in the stage is under pressure, showing a downward trend that exceeds expectationsDue to the deviation of the market mentality, the difficulty of slaughtering pigs has been sharply reduced, the phenomenon of stopping the plan has been greatly advanced, and some slaughterhouses have obvious pig retreats
Second, the egg price reversal "changed face"!
In the domestic egg market, around December 20, the egg price hit a stage low due to the high sentiment of destocking in the circulation link, and the production area ** fell to 404 yuan, the sales area ** bottomed out 411 yuan catty!However, with the gradual end of egg destocking in the circulation link, the phenomenon of replenishment of bargains in the downstream market has increased, and some food factories have the operation of bargain storage, and the egg price has temporarily reversed, and the center of gravity has gradually increased to 42~4.24 yuan catty, however, in the past two days, the egg price reversed the "face", * showing a trend of low-level consolidation!
According to the analysis of institutional data, at present, the production and marketing market, the production area of eggs ** in 421 yuan catty, the sales area market egg ** in 421 yuan catty, ** to stabilize the small movement!
It is understood that in December, laying hens affected by the August supplement of chicken seedlings, and the elimination of chickens for July last year to fill the column of chicken seedlings, through the analysis of historical column chicken seedlings, this month the laying hen inventory increased slightly month-on-month, due to some hatchery enterprises in the period of incubation, this month part of the eggs turned into commercial eggs, eggs ** relatively loose!
On the demand side, in the near future, the lack of substantial consumption is good, the performance of e-commerce goods is poor, affected by the cold wave and snowfall this month, the downstream catering and dine-in consumption are weakened, superimposed, pork ** is low, egg substitution consumption is strong, and the demand lacks substantial good!In the second half of the year, as the egg price briefly bottomed out, the market had a certain operation to replenish the stock on dips, which supported a slight increase in egg prices by 0About 2 yuan catty, however, in recent days, the purchase and sale have weakened again, ** to the low consolidation!
According to the analysis of institutional data, due to the pressure of strong supply and weak demand in the egg market this month, the egg inventory level in all aspects of production and marketing has increased significantly, of which the number of inventory days in the production area is 131 days, the number of days of inventory in the circulation link is 1In 87 days, the month-on-month increase reached 028 days and 0In 47 days, the passive increase in inventory in each link is more obvious!
Therefore, based on the market long and short game, the egg price is consolidating at a low level, and there is a lack of obvious support, however, entering January, with the increase in market stocking demand, the egg price trend may be stronger, and the overall space may be at 0About 3 yuan catty!
To sum up, at present, the domestic pig and egg market is under pressure, pig prices are more than expected to decline, and egg prices are in a low pull trend, the breeding industry is sluggish, however, there is also 1 good news in the market!It is understood that recently, due to the continuous decline of corn and soybean meal, domestic mainstream feed companies have lowered the feed factory, which is conducive to alleviating the pressure on the breeding end, and there may be some support for the market
Pig price "collapse" type**, egg price reversal "change face", what happened?1 good news!What do you think about this?The above is the author's personal opinion, **from the Internet!