Since the coffee between China and the United States in November, the RMB exchange rate has been **.
At present, in 2024, as long as there is no black swan event, the RMB exchange rate will return to 6. , which is a high-probability event.
But when will I be back?This is critical!
Because raising the exchange rate yourself is tantamount to trying to attract foreign capital, that is, to attract external savings.
Due to the various slapping campaigns that began in January 2021, North America's investment attitude with us here is to try not to touch it.
In fact, this is the fundamental reason why a large number of dollars are flowing into Europe, India, Japan, and South Korea.
If the money doesn't come to us, there will always be a flow. After all, money has a cost.
In other words, the dollar, which was supposed to hold us up, is now helping other economies to eat and drink, even at the cost of massive asset sell-offs.
In fact, what really deserves attention is that after the Fed cuts interest rates, we will try to open up unilaterally, raise the RMB exchange rate, and optimize the business environment. Will the dollar still flow in?
Interestingly, our mainstream financial voices don't care about such issues.
In the stage of the great power game, it is not enough for us to unilaterally raise the economic growth rate, unilaterally raise the exchange rate, and unilaterally assume the posture of doing business with others.
What should you do if others are willing to hold back, but they don't come?
In fact, you can look at the US bonds in our hands, starting from 1The high point of $2 trillion has been continuous, and now it is only about $750 billion. This clearly tells us that in order to defend the yuan, we are constantly ** the most liquid dollar assets.
Although dollar assets are like chicken ribs for us, we can't buy what we want, but without this thing, how can you defend the yuan in the future?How do I pay for my daily international** fees?
The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in exchange for the position of U.S. bonds has the feeling of building a nest and attracting phoenixes. The key is whether people still want to come???
The decoupling of China and the United States has many implications, but we must be aware of one thing:
In the future, we will not be able to get dollars as well as before.
Whether it is through the export of foreign exchange earning projects, or through the financial sector of the capital account, will face pressure from the United States.
Without the ability to pay in dollars, in the face of the reality that the global system is completely based on the dollar system, our development will be slower, and our industrial upgrading will inevitably be affected.
In terms of resource endowments, our current advantage is in population, not in energy, agriculture and high technology. If you want to take advantage of these resource endowments in other parts of the world, you must first have dollars.
Even if we can internationalize the renminbi on a large scale today, most of the technology and industries we need most are in the hands of U.S. allies, who want dollars.
Of course, despite the shouting that Europe is now shouting at us, we are still happy and hope that there will not be enough dollars and that the euro will come together.
But the problem is that as China's industrial upgrading becomes more and more successful, Europe also wants to close the door that is open to us. This means that our ability to access the euro will continue to weaken in the near future.
In fact, the game behind the financial logic is:
The overcapacity wins, and the excess capital wins
It turns out that this matter is not so complicated, the United States has money, we have manufacturing, the money flows into our manufacturing system, the United States takes the lion's share, and we follow the soup.
Now, the United States does not want us to drink soup, and we do not want the United States to take the lion's share, so both sides are fighting.
From this point of view, here is a special reminder for everyone:
Don't be surprised that someday in the future, HKD will suddenly and quietly bind to the yuan instead of the dollar.
After this financial war, it is clear that the United States has abandoned HK as an offshore dollar market in Asia and turned to Singapore for this business.
In this case, we just turned HK into an offshore RMB market, which is inevitable.
In other words, the climax of financial decoupling between the two sides is still !! later
The question now is, what kind of opportunities and bottlenecks will we encounter if we continue to do this?
Everyone should be very clear that although we have been saying that this round is a financial war, this statement is not accurate.
As the first voice in the domestic financial circle to clearly state the following views, today I want to dig deeper into this issue:
The real logic is that the US financial war against China in 2023 is just a "pretend", which is actually an accelerated financial decoupling.
Financial warfare, do it for you, forget it if you don't win, and have the opportunity to do it again in the future. Looking at Soros during the crisis in Southeast Asia, in fact, is a good example.
However, if it is financial decoupling, it means that it is a long-term mechanism and a long-term trend.
The current situation is that if financial decoupling is the main line, then what does it mean for our RMB exchange rate to return to within 7?
Based on the experience of the United States and the Soviet Union in their struggle for hegemony, the significance of the renminbi against the US dollar will continue to weaken in the future. Because, the direct financial connection between the two sides is getting smaller and smaller, even if the yuan rises to 5 dollars, what is your value?
Secondly, despite the fact that China has long struggled to ** the US debt position in order to defend the yuan exchange rate. However, we should also see that we are not stupid and sweet. The United States wants financial decoupling is a clear brand, touching the stone of Russia, and the Americans will inevitably completely erase our external storage in the future. In this case, it is better to use these resources to their own interests.
Third, there has been a dramatic structural change in the inflow of international industrial capital. Due to the rapid upgrading of China's industry, industries suitable for small and medium-sized foreign investment are not competitive here, while Europe and other places are more willing to enter large international industrial capital. This structural differentiation is not only the inevitable result of our industrial iteration, but also the inevitable measure for people to continue to compete with us in the industrial chain.
Therefore, while actively embracing third-world funds such as local tyrants and inferior gentry in the Middle East, China is also trying to slow down the outflow of funds from Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea, giving itself more buffer time.
However, in essence, we must understand:
In the end, the United States wants to kick us out of the dollar system, we don't want to continue to be stuck with the dollar, use it, collect wool. In fact, there is a strong consensus on both sides.
The question now is, what will we do if net financial inflows to developed countries fall rapidly in the future?
After all, we are developing countries. Economic growth in developing countries must be highly dependent on investment rather than consumption. Investment requires savings and is divided into foreign and domestic investment.
With the continuous advancement of this wave of financial decoupling, the overall net outflow of foreign capital has become a trend. Therefore, there is only one way to maintain economic development:
Increase leverage by yourself, and the scale must be large.
In this step, you have to add it without leverage. Without leverage, there is more risk and more defaults. Increase leverage, at least the whole can be stable.