The problem of the property market is more complicated than we think!
On the macro level, real estate continued to decline, pulling out the data of new housing transactions in a single month, and found that after the "enlargement move" began in August, except for the slight increase in the volume in September, the stagnant water in other months was slight. It should be noted that this is a situation that occurred after the "big move" was made in all the first-tier cities. For the full year, sales returned to 2015 levels and starts returned to pre-2006 levels.
Data**: National Bureau of StatisticsIn addition to the fact that the downward trend of the market is difficult to reverse, there are two new situations:
One is that the momentum of the cycle begins to weaken.
Improvement demand is considered to be the new driving force. But now, just need has been squeezed out, and the demand for improvement has not been able to turn, and only the rich are still relatively stable in buying houses. However, relying on a small handful of wealthy people can't support the property market at all, and the recent improvement is involution. Therefore, this is also why, the transaction volume of new houses in Shenzhen has hit a new low since 2011, and the transaction volume of second-hand houses has been at least a new low since 2008.
The same goes for other cities. From the perspective of the transaction structure of the house, according to CRIC's statistics, as early as 2019, the transaction volume of new houses with two-bedroom units in 194 cities has dropped to less than 30%, while the transaction volume of three-bedroom units accounted for 522%, four-room transactions accounted for 185%。
In other words, the demand for improvement has been released for many years. In 2016-2017, after the last round of housing prices, housing prices in first- and second-tier cities generally reached a high level. In those years, the price of the house was rising, and it was easy to sell, whether it was coerced by the general trend, suggested by an intermediary, or demonstrated by relatives and friends, many people changed houses.
At the moment, the potential for changing houses is not so great;If you want to change it, you can't sell the house in your hand, and you can't change it;Fundamentals such as income, employment, and expectations are generally feeling the cold of winter, and the rest are beginning to actively or passively shrink and reduce their burdens, and are reluctant to change houses.
Second, more and more emphasis is placed on cost performance and affordability.
Buyers who remain in the market are no longer as excited as they used to be, and they have to exceed their purchasing power at every turn or desperately tiptoe to buy a big house.
Taking Shenzhen as an example, in the past 2023, even if the reference price of second-hand housing has been withdrawn and the down payment ratio has been reduced, the new housing market is still hovering at a historical low, with a de-conversion rate of only about 30%. However, the talent house with a 6% discount on the market price, even if there is a 10-year "ban on sale" restriction, it can't stop the heat. There are 17 talent housing projects, accounting for more than 1 3 new houses, and most of them are "100% de-industrialized".
Table: Shenzhen's sales-oriented talent housing in Shenzhen** and decentralization data**: Shenzhen LejuWhy is the talent housing of "10-year ban on sale and rent" so popular?It's very simple, ** low (6% off commodity house prices), controllable total price (average area of about 70 square meters), * dominant, talent housing degrees and other public facilities are not bad, why not choose?
The problem behind it is that when the asset attributes of commercial housing fade and the price increase is expected, young people's consumption tends to be conservative and more cost-effective. Moreover, the talent housing of the "two-bedroom apartment type" is more popular, and it is basically 100% removed. It fully shows that consumption is more conservative and realistic.
This is consistent with the contraction of consumption after lowering future expectations, such as the recent acceleration of McDonald's store opening in China, Uniqlo's hot sales, Pinduoduo's market value hit a new high, and even military coats replaced down jackets. But it should be noted that this is not a downgrade of consumption or anti-consumerism, but that they are setting off a disenchantment of consumerism, or the price of higher consumption, in their eyes, it is not worth it.
Pay attention to themIt's not that we don't pay attention to quality, it's the opposite。They have grown up in the best and fastest developed decades in China, and they have fully enjoyed the information dividend brought by the Internet, allowing them to look at the whole world equally. As the sharers of development dividends, their parents also give them the most adequate material security, so that they pay great attention to quality from the starting point.
It's just that they are "**sensitive", requiring the goods to be lower, but still requiring higher quality, or called"High quality-price ratio" (high quality, low quality).。That's why food, clothing, housing and transportation fields such as McDonald's, bubble tea shops, Uniqlo, car rentals, experience tours, etc., are more popular. Because, the total price consumption is not high, but the experience is good and the quality is high.
*It's not high, but the quality is good, which is difficult. So, admire Uniqlo, McDonald's. Aiming at the high "quality-to-price" demand of young people.
Recently,More and more big catering brands have begun to engage in "brand satellite stores"., only for take-out, no dine-in. For example, **Lou, one of the representative brands of high-end Hunan cuisine in Changsha, took the lead in launching a takeaway sub-brand in the country - "Lou Outdoor Food".
Data: NetworkAnother well-known Hunan cuisine brand, Nongji, is also engaged in brand satellite stores. It is not in a busy area, the store is not too big, the waiter is much less, and the cost has plummeted. For dine-in, the per capita unit price of ** floor is 120-200 yuan, and the per capita unit price of takeaway is about 30-50 yuan. As for the health situation, etc., the Internet can solve it, and the whole process is monitored, which is a case of low quality and high quality.
In addition to the first floor, farming, wooden house barbecue, hometown chicken, real kung fu, Xibei, etc., well-known restaurant companies are developing in this direction. In the fields of clothing, food, housing and transportation, there is such a trend. In the field of real estate, a new phenomenon has been discovered, where the experience is not good, the quality of the house, even if the ** is low, it is difficult to sell, it is difficult to rent out. For example, it is difficult to find a buyer for an old dilapidated house, even if the price is reduced.
According to the second-hand housing data of Shanghai Lianjia's transactions in 2023, buyers have the largest bargaining space for second-hand houses within 5 millionThe difference between the first listing and the final** price is often more than 10%. For another example, urban villages used to be very popular with migrant workers, but in the past two years, urban villages in Guangzhou, Dongguan, and Foshan have been significantly vacant. The new generation of migrant workers are reluctant to live in such houses.
Data**: It's really called Lu Jun*** Recently, the second-hand housing transactions in hot cities rebounded at the end of the year, and the driving factor behind it was "price for volume". In every big city, in the past few years, there has been an influx of young people, who just need to change houses and wait to be fed. When the first falls to a certain extent, the second-hand housing with a controllable unit price and a good living atmosphere is their choice。From a regional point of view, the central area has the largest transaction volume.
Taking Guangzhou as an example, the number of second-hand housing transactions in November exceeded "10,000" for the first time this year, a year-on-year increase of nearly 90%. However, in November, Guangzhou's second-hand housing ** index was **4 year-on-year3%, month-on-month **10%。If you look at the top 10 active real estate transactions,It was found that the basic ones are the lowest in each district (there are 4 real estate projects with an average price of more than 20,000 yuan), mature supporting facilities, and good real estate.
Table: The 10 most actively transacted second-hand properties in Guangzhou in November 2023 Data**: Guangzhou Central Plains
Judging from the market situation mentioned above, the old model is unsustainable!
Recently, an important meeting proposedAccelerate the construction of a new real estate development model, the prefix is "accelerate construction", rather than the previous "exploration and establishment". Obviously, the situation has formed a reversal, and the only way to solve the real estate worries is a new model. For the old model, for what to "break", the industry is clear. For example, we should eliminate the simple factor input of "land sale-house construction-house sale-land sale", break the "high cost, high turnover, and high leverage", and break the supply situation of "commercial housing is large and affordable housing is weak", etc.
But as for what the new model is, whether it is the industry or the management, there is no confusion. The existing understanding, such as the sale of existing houses, the simultaneous development of rental and purchase, affordable housing, and the creation of "good houses", cannot be concretized into a new model with clear outlines.
The new model, this is a grand narrative, it is difficult to grasp, so we start from the micro level. Recently, the state has placed special emphasis on planning and building affordable housing, which is a good "small incision" to analyze. Why?Because it fits well with the new needs of the residents mentioned earlier.
That is the "high quality-price ratio" (high quality, **low)!
The main features of the new round of allotment type of affordable housing are:
Land allocation**.
Guaranteed capital and small profit sales.
Closed circulation (can only be sold to ** or eligible people).
For salaried people and all kinds of talents.
The design of this system is relatively comprehensive: which people need a house and what house they need is clear, that is, the working class and talents who have settled in the city for a few years are the main body of demand, considering their income prospects and employment expectations, they need a house that is low enough.
It is to be noted thatHousing prices in various places are declining, some of the higher points have fallen by nearly half, coupled with the large number of houses in the market, some are difficult to deliver or even unfinished, the decision to buy a house has been delayed, and long-term rentals have been formed. In addition to low price, it must also be attractive, that is, the quality must be good.
The so-called good quality is not to build a luxury house, but to keep up with the quality and configuration of the surrounding commercial housing, timely delivery, delivery quality and publicity, public education, medical care, etc. At present, income and employment and the property market are expected to be weak, and there are a lot of houses on the market, and they are still falling and falling. The quality is not attractive, and even if the house price is low, it is estimated that it will be difficult to sell.
Shenzhen's talent housing is hot, and it is not just **low!
Therefore, if the placement type affordable housing wants to become a starting point for the new model, it must have the advantage of good quality, and even the quality is slightly higher than that of the surrounding commercial housing. As long as the quality is good, no matter how the circulation is restricted, it will not affect the hot sale. Because it's relevant to the needs of the moment.
If this is deduced, it depends on whether the local rulers attach importance to it or not. The author has been appealing,This kind of house should refer to the characteristics of new projects with high demobilization rate, and must allocate land in the central area or the sub-central area within the commuting range, so as to realize the success of the move.
At present, all localities still do not pay enough attention, worrying about the impact on commercial housing and land finance. In this way, it may not be possible to take out a good plot, and the quality is difficult to match the commercial housing. If the project that comes out does not let everyone see the sincerity it should have, or falls into the impression of traditional affordable housing: the quality is lackluster, the follow-up is not maintained, and the low income is concentrated, you will learn what it means to vote with your feet.
Importantly, the opportunity to leverage the new model through this "small incision" will be missed (there is a precedent for this in the deployment of rental housing). Therefore, there is no shortage of good design for the new model, but implementation is lacking, which is the key to the new modelThe reason why HDB flats in Singapore have successfully solved Singapore's housing problem lies in the good quality and low quality, and behind it is motivation, courage and execution.
Photo: Singapore's Dashi Ling HDB flat (pinnacle@ Duxton) is located in the heart of the city and is priced at RMB 20,000 per square meter.