If this year's A-shares can be described in one word, it is "down"!
The Shanghai Stock Exchange first broke 3,000 points, and then broke 2,900 points, and the Shenzhen Index and the Growth Enterprise Market were even more bleak, hitting new lows one after another. Fortunately, on Thursday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange regained 2,900 points.
The biggest highlight of this year's market is that ETFs have risen sharply against the trend.
The data shows thatAs of December 19, the share of ETFs in the whole market hit an all-time high, totaling 201 trillion copies, an increase of 39% from the beginning of this year. Among them,**Type 136808.1 billion copies, currency type 23164.3 billion copies, 298 commercial type6.6 billion, 654 bonds2.3 billion copies, QDII type 27600.5 billion copies. The vast majority of ETFs are ** ETFs.
For example, the most popular ETFs this year are broad-based index ETFs such as the Science and Technology Innovation Board 100, CSI 2000 and SZSE 50.
ETF is an index**, and buying ** ETF is equivalent to buying ** directly, but buying not a single **, but a basket**.
Why are ETFs so popular under the adjustment?
The fundamental reason is that the index** is becoming more and more valued by investors. Buying an index ** is not to buy a single **, but to buy multiple ** at the same time, so as to avoid a single **thunderstorm and lose all your money, that is, the eggs are not put in one basket. From this perspective, the sudden popularity of ETFs can be said to be the need for risk control under the general trend.
Now the real economy is in the stage of clearing excess capacity, and the forced delisting of A-shares has also increased, and the risk of buying specific ** alone is indeed higher than in the past, and only combined investment is the future direction.
ETF index**, but it is not an index in the general sense**, ETF can be understood as an upgraded version of the ordinary index**.
The ordinary index ** is generally purchased from the **company with currency, that is, "one hand to pay, one hand to deliver", which is an open-ended **, which can be purchased and redeemed at any time. The biggest disadvantage of this is that the stability is slightly weaker. For example, if 10 billion funds are raised, it is difficult for the 10 billion to achieve the index at the same time, because of the fear that customers may redeem it halfway, the real purchase may only be about 9.5 billion, and the remaining 500 million will be used for reserves.
But the result of this is that ** will lose some elasticity, for example, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index ** is likely to rise by only 08%。
ETFs are different, and when ETFs are redeemed, they do not redeem currencies, but baskets**. Managers don't have to worry about frequent redemptions by customers and incurring a lot of costs. Therefore, taking the Shanghai Composite Index as an example, if 10 billion funds are raised, the amount of the corresponding index can even reach 995%。Its authenticity and sensitivity will be much higher.
In recent times, the national team has increased its holdings in ETFs twice.
On October 23, ** Huijin Investment Co., Ltd. announced that ** Huijin Company (hereinafter referred to as "Huijin Company") ** exchange-traded open-ended index (ETF) on that day and will continue to increase its holdings in the future.
On December 1, China Guoxin Holdings Co., Ltd. announced that its Guoxin Investment*** increased its holdings in the CSI Guoxin Central Enterprises Technology Index on the same day, and will continue to increase its holdings in the future.
At present, there are a large number of ** ETFs for the national team, and at the same time, the scale of the ETF has increased significantly, which shows that the ETF is an asset that the national team, institutions, and individual investors are more keen on. On the other hand, it is also considered to be a signal for smart investors to enter the market.
This Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index **057%, recovering 2,900 points, but still below 3,000 points.
I've been emphasizing one point,The risk of A-shares below 3,000 points will be smaller, because it will definitely be back above 3000 points in no more than 1 month at most. 3000 points is a baseline line, and when it deviates, it will move back.
I want to grasp this wave of correction opportunities,You can pay attention to the Shanghai Composite Index ETF (510760) on the market, and if you don't have an account, you can pay attention to its connection** (011320), and you can buy it directly on major platforms.
Moreover, the Shanghai Composite Index ETF adopts a sampling replication strategy, which is a little enhanced. Since its listing on September 9, 2020, the secondary market has risen by 224%, and the Shanghai Composite Index **1199%, and the excess return reached more than 14%.
Why do I say it's only a matter of time before the Shanghai Composite Index returns to 3000 points?
First, the 3,000-point point is not high, and it has been revolving around 3,000 points for the past 20 years, and the index will correct under the action of inertia.
Second, **can not**, nothing more than two reasons,The first is whether the performance is growing. The second is whether the price of the product has increased.
Why A-shares have been adjusting this year. First, the economy is facing downward pressure, and the performance of listed companies is not growing as fast as imagined. Second, CPI, PPI and other price indicators are at a low level.
However, looking at another data, you may be more optimistic. Broad money (m2) grew by 10% at the end of November this year, and domestic GDP growth is expected to be 5About 2%. M2 growth is seen as money growth, and GDP growth is seen as wealth growth. The growth rate of money is significantly higher than the growth rate of wealth, which is conducive to stabilizing prices and growth in the long run.
So from this big perspective, A-shares are supported.