The latest report issued by Morgan Stanley (Da Morgan) pointed out that the future will be a period of accelerated cyclical growth and increased demand in the memory industry, and will raise the quarterly pricing of DRAM and NAND by 20% in the first quarter of next year.
Da Mo pointed out that in the first quarter of next year, orders from Chinese smartphone OEMs have increased significantly, PC original design equipment manufacturers are also creating inventory, and smartphone OEM factories are making inventory replenishment, resulting in the current inventory of memory *** only returning to normal levels, DRAM about 4-6 weeks, NAND about 6-7 weeks.
In addition, memory manufacturers are aggressively reducing production, so that production is still well below demand, and the improvement in the demand environment also makes the pricing outlook for 2024 more clear. Da Mo believes that although most of the demand for AI applications is concentrated in cloud computing, from 2024, the demand at the edge (mobile AI) will become more and more common, increasing the possible AI potential market.
Overall, the memory cycle has rebounded from the low point in the first quarter of this year and is ready for 2024, Da Mo believes that it is necessary to pay attention to the second half of 2024, and the memory cycle will eventually reach the peak of the same period, which will be the time to sell.
As for the NOR flash industry, the other US foreign investors believe that the year is oversupply, and next year will be less than 2% of the supply, and it is expected that the price will rise next year, mainly due to the rebound in non-AI demand, and prefer Winbond, in addition to benefiting NOR, DRAM customer inventory is only 2 months, lower than the normal average of 3-4 months.
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