Mysteel interprets that domestic scrap inventories continue to rise, and steel mills winter storage

Mondo Finance Updated on 2024-01-28

Want to know more exciting content, come and pay attention to my steel last week, the national scrap steel market consolidation is strong operation, the first half of the week in various regions of the steel mill scrap procurement ** adjustment is mixed, to South China and North China price adjustment is more positive, the second half of the week ** to increase the main, the increase in 20-30 yuan tons, steel mills according to their own arrival situation slightly adjusted the purchase **, near the end of the week the market again showed a slight rise and fall, on the whole, the weekly consolidation trend. From the point of view of the regional distribution of price adjustments, the price adjustment in North China, South China, and East China is more positive, especially the steel mills in South China have risen and fallen several times during the week, although the amplitude is small, but the frequent price adjustment operations have a certain impact on the market and mentality. Judging from the current profits of independent electric furnace plants, the production cost of steel mills has increased slightly with scrap steel, and the profits have shrunk slightly, but Gudian still has a profit of 150-200 yuan tons, and the electric furnace maintains active production, and the demand for scrap steel still maintains a strong trend. At the same time, the price difference between scrap steel and molten iron has expanded again, and it is currently maintained at -336 yuan tons, and the rise of scrap steel is still not as good as that of raw materials such as iron ore.

Steel mills: As of December 6, Mysteel surveyed 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills across the country, with an average operating rate of 7516%, up 052%, up 508%;Capacity utilization rate 6583%, up 1. week-on-week86%, 1150%。The average cost of 40 independent EAF construction steel mills was 3,956 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous weekThe average profit was 49 yuan tons, and the profit of valley power was 148 yuan tons, down 29 yuan tons week-on-week. The main factor of data continuity is that manufacturers still have a certain profit, and they choose to increase production time and increase production, and improve production capacity and operating rate. Judging from this week's situation, it is difficult for the finished materials to decline sharply in a short period of time, the profit level is expected to be maintained, and there are more manufacturers to increase production, so it is expected that the capacity utilization rate and operating rate of independent electric arc furnace plants will maintain an upward trend this week.

Market: As of December 6, MySteel surveyed 584 scrap steel processing enterprises, of which 28 were unprocessed raw materials in the social inventory of scrap processing enterprises (except for steel mill scrap companies).590,000 tons, 73 finished products have been processed270,000 tons, a total of 101860,000 tons, an increase of 018%。Last week's social inventory data did not change much, at present, suppliers maintain fast in and out, reduce inventory operations, there is no sign of pre-holiday storage, the circulation of market resources is relatively smooth, and the scrap steel is sufficient.

Regarding the scrap inventory and related arrivals of steel mills last week, our network also made research statistics:

As of December 7, the total scrap inventory of my 300 steel mills was 598380,000 tons, an increase of 16 from last week110,000 tons, an increase of 277%;Turnaround days 102 days, an increase of 02 days;The total number of daily arrivals is 58110,000 tons, down 4 from last week41%;The total daily consumption is 5630,000 tons, down 034%。

As of December 7, the total scrap inventory of 61 steel mills in my steel industry was 238570,000 tons, an increase of 8 from last week360,000 tons, an increase of 363%;Turnaround days 113 days, an increase of 01 day. This week, the average daily arrival of scrap from 61 steel mills in my steel industry was 296367 tons, down 3 from last week1%;The average daily consumption is 276525 tons, down 006%。

Last week, steel mill scrap steel inventory continued to show a significant rise, to the second half of the high level, from the survey learned that the current steel mills in all regions of the country, especially in the long process, have the phenomenon of passive increase in storage, many steel mills in advance to complete the winter storage plan, inventory remained at a high level throughout the year, near the end of the year, as long as there is no significant reduction in the phenomenon of storage, the basic completion of the winter storage before the preparation of scrap storage. At present, the price difference between scrap and molten iron continues to widen, scrap production is cost-effective, and the scrap ratio of blast furnace plants has also remained in a state of continuous improvement. Compared with the current consumption, we can see that the number of days that the inventory can be used remains at 102 days, from the conventional level of the winter reserve in previous years 12-14 days there is still a certain gap, mainly due to the current consumption is still in the high level of stability, inventory steel mill winter storage pressure has been released in advance, the later continued increase in the library or will form a greater suppressive impact. In terms of social inventory, the current market resources have fully flowed into steel mills, and the smooth social treasury is low, and the resources have remained in a relatively sufficient state, which has inhibited the rise of scrap steel. The short-term supply and demand situation is difficult to break, and inventories may continue to rise, while maintaining a narrow range.

Summary: Last week, the national scrap market consolidated strongly, the production enthusiasm of electric furnace plants was strong, the proportion of blast furnace scrap continued to increase, and the demand for scrap remained high. The market resources are fully released, the scrap inventory of steel mills continues to increase, and the supply and demand are strong, and it is expected that the short-term scrap steel will continue to operate in a narrow range.

Disclaimer: MySteel strives to use the information accurately, objectively and fairly in the content and opinions expressed in the information, but does not guarantee whether it needs to be changed. The information provided by MySteel is for the customer's decision-making reference only, and does not constitute a direct recommendation for the customer's decision-making, and the customer should not replace its own independent judgment, and any decision made by the customer has nothing to do with mysteel. The copyright of this report belongs to mysteel, without permission, prohibited**, violators will be prosecuted.

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