【Author's Profile】Songuo comes from a private equity champion team, with a cumulative scale of 10 figures. With 13 years of investment experience, he is good at ** and restructuring, and is now the manager of Sunshine Private Equity.
The reason why the market has gone like this is that the fundamentals have not seen a clear signal of warming at present, so we will mainly talk about three topics on Tuesday, one is the experience before the Spring Festival holiday, which market performance is better?To what extent has the second market shrunk?Third, let's talk about how to break the game, and whether the market can break the game like 1664.
Let's talk about the first one first, the Spring Festival holiday
Tuesday is a good thing for swiping the screen, it's really not good, the regulator said that the Spring Festival holiday, what kind of good is this?Nothing!
According to my experience, during the Spring Festival holiday every year, in fact, the market is very sluggish, everyone is on holiday, but before and after this, in fact, the market changes a lot, the general market is hot after the Spring Festival, and then, during this period, there are some regular characteristics, that is, the performance of cyclical stocks is better, you may be unimaginable, in fact, it is easy to understand, because everyone has to be busy with production after the year, so we need to prepare enough raw materials before the year, so that cyclical stocks, it due to the increase in demand, ** go higher, which is logical.
Will this be the case this year?It's hard to say, but in the past, the performance of cyclical stocks at this stage of each year was relatively good, especially like nonferrous metals and some chemicals, building materials, etc., which may be concentrated in the weak cycle point this year, such as consumer electronics, household savings performance is better, and it may also be a pioneer.
Second, the market shrunk to the extreme, and the two markets shrank to 609.8 billion on Tuesday
The shrinkage is very strong, during this period of time, the market can basically maintain a 7000-900 billion, basically the market is less than 3 to 4 percent, and the trading volume is still very much, this year on February 16 and August 28 respectively, the trading volume reached, 119 trillion and 112 trillion, now it is only half of the peak, very similar to 1664, and the peak is less than seventy or eighty percent, the shrinkage is more powerful, the shrinkage reflects the back of the transaction, everyone has no confidence, so it may enter the stage of infinite empty fall and infinite **, but **only when the volume is a signal, and it will take time to change.
Finally, let's talk about how to break the game
It is very difficult to break the game, so let's recall how 1664 broke the game at that time.
Because the stimulus plan of 4 trillion yuan was introduced at the end of 2008, and the corresponding 7-8 trillion yuan of monetary water, the economy stabilized and the money was sufficient, so ***
However, this time I can clearly tell you that it is too difficult for the currency to release water, because the growth rate of M2 has been falling, and it is also difficult to stimulate the fiscal sector
Two words - *
Why?You see, from the small-scale meeting in July to improve the activity of the first month, to the back are mainly to stabilize and solve the existing problems, only on the first to clearly put forward the activity, however, you put forward the slogan This is not good, in addition to the supporting policies, you may have to take money, no money is really not good.
Therefore, if you break the game, you must level the entry, and you must enter the market on a large scale, otherwise it will be difficult to break the game.
That sums up, that is, the Spring Festival holiday beware of this pre-holiday trading cold situation is anti-**, however, cyclical stocks and some consumer electronics and household savings have been taking the lead, and the trading volume has shrunk to the peak of this year 1 2 reflects that the trading is very inactive, so, what to rely on to break the game, nothing else, the previous traditional methods are not good, only equal to the first entry.