**: Giant Elephant Gold
Last Friday, the U.S. inflation data, which the market paid more attention to, was released. According to the data, the core PCE price index1 in the United States rose 3% year-on-year in November2%, down from 33% and the previous value of 34%, the smallest increase since April 2021, and a slight decrease from October. Compared to the previous month, the decline in energy** and the decline in food** tamped inflation. After the release of the data, the market was asking when the Fed would cut interest rates. According to economists at Bank of America, the Fed will cut interest rates from 75 basis points to 100 basis points next year, citing inflation falling faster than **. In addition, according to the CME Fed Watch 3, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged by March next year is only 6.7%, the probability of an interest rate cut has been as high as 933%。The rising probability of interest rate cuts has once again boosted gold prices.
After the market just experienced the Fed's hawkish cooling signal, the inflation data fell again, making the market the final word on the Fed's monetary policy turn. Spot ** Affected by the rising expectations of interest rate cuts, bulls continue to hit the highs. Of course, the recent resurgence of the geopolitical situation has also brought some upward momentum to gold prices. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed on Monday to continue fighting Hamas militants, while Palestinians mourned the more than 100 people killed in Israeli airstrikes the night before. And a senior Iranian adviser was killed in an Israeli raid on Syria, and Iran's Raisi said Israel might pay the price. The continuous change in the geopolitical situation has made the risk aversion rise again.
Last Friday, after the bulls broke through a new high, after experiencing the confirmation of the retracement, the bulls rose again, reaching a maximum of around 2071, and then made a pullback adjustment. From the trend point of view, the bulls are still continuing, and the current high belongs to the bulls' strong upward stage, so the bulls will see that the magnitude will become larger, and the bulls are expected to continue to hit new highs. From the point of view of indicators, on the 30-minute period, the MACD indicator fast and slow line Diff and DEA are running above the 0 axis, the red kinetic energy column grows again, and the bulls continue to launch a rush.
On Friday, the bulls continued to rise, with the bulls reaching a high of 24After around 60, there was a wave of rapid correction among the bears. From the trend point of view, the new trend of the bulls was briefly damaged on Friday, the bears fell below the lower band of the upward channel, and the bulls will repair it during the day, and if they can quickly break through the lower band, the bulls will continue to challenge new highs. From the point of view of indicators, the 1-hour MACD indicator fast and slow line Diff and DEA are about to run again near the 0 axis, the green kinetic energy column continues to shorten, and the bulls will continue to force upward.
On the U.S. dollar index 4-hour chart, the bears went further down last Friday, and the trend continues. From the point of view of kinetic energy, the current kinetic energy is showing a slow** trend, and the kinetic energy performance has weakened to a certain extent.
*ETF – SPDR Gold Trust Holdings Report.
The above views and suggestions are for reference only. 】
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