[First Commercial Vehicle Network Original].
In 2023, the terminal demand of the domestic heavy truck market will continue to recover, with an average monthly sales volume of about 5 in the first 10 months30,000 units (the average monthly sales volume for the whole of last year was less than 40,000 units). Among them, the terminal sales of tractors have achieved "10 consecutive increases" in 2023, and have outperformed the heavy truck market for 10 consecutive months"**The cumulative sales growth rate after October has reached 61%.
In November, the terminal demand of the heavy truck market declined compared with October, and the entire heavy truck market sold 4880,000 units, up 47% y/y and 17 percentage points lower than the previous month (+64%). In the first 10 months of this year, it outperformed the heavy truck marketCan we continue to outperform?Which company can win the first place in the monthly sales list?Can gas tractors, which skyrocketed by 15 times last month, continue to be popular?This year, the new energy tractor that has not had a great impact on the pattern of the tractor industry can break out once?
Please see the analysis report of the first commercial vehicle network.
Actual sales in November 2640,000 units, down 23% m/m and up 99% y/y
According to the latest terminal sales data mastered by the first commercial vehicle network, in November 2023, domestic tractor sales will be 2640,000 units (compulsory traffic insurance caliber, excluding exports and military products, the same below), down 23% month-on-month from October, but continued to grow year-on-year, with an increase of 99%, narrowing by 28 percentage points from the previous month (+127%), and about 1310,000 units. In November, the overall sales of the heavy truck market increased by 47% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of 99% of the tractor in November continued to outperform the heavy truck market.
In November 2023, the towing vehicle 2The sales volume of 640,000 units accounted for about 54 percent of the total terminal sales of the heavy truck market02% compared with the previous month (61.).52%), the terminal sales of heavy trucks in November increased by nearly 5 percent, and the largest contribution is still tractors. Judging from the figures, the average monthly sales volume of the tractor terminal market from January to November this year was about 2770,000 units is not a good performance, but compared to 2022, this performance is very good. As you can see in the chart above, the blue line representing 2022 has always been at a low level, and it is not too difficult to go above this level;Sales in January and June this year were slightly higher than the sales volume of the same period last year, 2-5 months were much higher than the same period last year, more than 4,000 vehicles in July were higher than the same period last year, and the "increment" of the four months of 8-11 exceeded 10,000 units, which was significantly higher than the same period last year. Judging from the figures, last year's tractor terminal sales have not exceeded 20,000 since July, and the next 12 months are not the peak sales season for the heavy truck market as in the past November, but due to the low enough sales in the same period last year, the tractor terminal market this round of "continuous increase" is likely not to stop at "11 consecutive increases".
As the largest and most competitive segment in the heavy truck market, this year's tractor terminal market has become more competitive in the context of recovering demand.
Jiefang ranked first steadily, and Sinotruk, Universiade, Long-range, Hongyan, etc. doubled
In November 2023, the terminal sales of tractors increased by 99% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate narrowed by 28 percentage points compared with October (+127%). Compared with the same period last year, 11 of the top 12 companies in terms of sales volume have achieved growth.
In November, the terminal sales of tractors decreased by 23% compared with October, but there were still many companies including Yuanyuan, XCMG, Hongyan and Yutong, whose sales in November were higher than in October. In November, no enterprise sold more than 10,000 units in the tractor terminal market, and Jiefang ranked first in the monthly list with a sales volume of 7,076 vehicles, with a monthly share of 2682%；Sinotruk, Dongfeng, Foton and Shaanxi Automobile sold more than 3,000 vehicles in November, reaching 5,284, 4,002, 3,293 and 3,267 respectively, and the industry's top 5 companies have huge advantages compared with other companies. As can be seen in the figure above, the tractor terminal market in November is still divided into: the liberation of the far ahead, the fierce fight of Sinotruk, Dongfeng, Foton and Shaanxi Automobile (the monthly list of 2-5 members is fixed, but the number of seats is changing at any time), and other companies that are catching up.
List of terminal sales of tractors in November 2023 (unit: units).
In November, the top 10 members of the tractor terminal sales ranking were not exactly the same as last month, and the ranking also changed a lot: the companies ranked 1-8 remained the same as in October, and Hongyan and Yutong both returned to the top 10 of the monthly sales list of tractors, ranking first in the monthly list with sales of 387 and 315 respectively, and the rankings increased by 2 places compared with October;The companies that ranked first in the monthly list in October were squeezed into the 11th and 12th places in the monthly list in November.
The above table can also be seen that in November, a number of enterprises increased by more than 100 year-on-year, Sinotruk, Universiade, remote, XCMG, Hongyan and Yutong and other enterprises, sales in November increased by % and 165% year-on-year respectively, outperforming the overall growth rate of 99% of the tractor market, of which Universiade has doubled for four consecutive months, Sinotruk has doubled for three consecutive months, ranking first Jiefang year-on-year growth rate of 98%, sales have nearly doubled.
From the perspective of market share, the top 10 companies in the terminal sales of tractors in November accounted for 95% of the entire marketWith an 11% share, the total sales of companies after the top 10 are less than 1,300 units. Among them, the liberation of the first place alone ate the tractor terminal market in November 2682% share, continue to lead by a large margin;Ranked 2-5, Sinotruk, Dongfeng, Foton and Shaanxi Automobile also had a market share of more than 10% in November, respectively. 48% and 1238%, the total share of the top five enterprises in the tractor industry reached 8688% compared with the previous month (9131%). In the first 11 months of 2023, the total share of the top five companies in the tractor industry will only be less than 90% for 4 months, with a huge lead.
From January to November, gas vehicles rose by 352%, and the year-end sales of diesel vehicles may decline
Since the beginning of this year, the monthly sales rankings of various companies have changed frequently, which has changed the industry pattern and market share of the tractor market.
From January to November 2023, the top 10 tractor terminal sales (unit: units).
From January to November 2023, the cumulative sales of the tractor terminal market were 30540,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 63%, the cumulative sales growth rate compared with October (+61%) expanded by 2 percentage points, mainstream enterprises to growth, of which Jiefang, Shaanxi Automobile, Universiade cumulative sales increased by % and 77% year-on-year respectively, is the only three cumulative sales growth rate higher than the overall growth rate of the market enterprises. In terms of market share, compared with the same period in 2022, the share of Jiefang, Shaanxi Automobile and Dayun has also increased, with an increase of 209 percentage points, 207 percentage points and 016 percentage points, XCMG maintained its share unchanged, and the market share of other enterprises declined to varying degrees.
The analysis of the first commercial vehicle network believes that such a situation, in addition to the fact that the competition in the tractor market has always been very fierce, and the change of fuel type in the tractor market also has a certain correlation. As the largest driving force in the tractor market, diesel models accounted for 47 percent of the terminal sales of tractors from January to November this year73%, a decrease of nearly 30 percentage points from the same period last year (and also well below the 7561%), the proportion of pure electric tractors decreased by 0 compared with the same period last year91 percentage points, correspondingly, the proportion of natural gas tractors reached 4698% (of which the proportion from June to November reached respectively.) 67% and 5676%), a significant increase of 30 percentage points from the same period last year (compared to 1726% also increased significantly).
Let's look at a set of comparisons: from January to November this year, the cumulative sales of diesel tractors increased by only 1% year-on-year (significantly underperforming the 63% growth rate of the tractor market as a whole, and the recent 5-11 months, diesel tractor sales declined year-on-year, according to this development, the cumulative sales of diesel tractors this year are very likely to decline), and the cumulative sales of pure electric tractors increased by 35% year-on-year (the overall growth of new energy tractors only increased by 41%)Correspondingly, the sales of natural gas tractors from January to November this year increased by 352% year-on-year (of which the sales in November soared by 662% year-on-year), which is not only much higher than the overall 63% growth rate of the tractor market, but also higher than the overall 332% growth rate of the natural gas heavy truck market. In this way, Jiefang, Shaanxi Automobile and other gas tractor advantage enterprises not only stabilized or improved their rankings (Jiefang maintained the first place in the industry, Shaanxi Automobile rose from the 5th place in the industry in the same period last year to the current 4th in the industry), but also expanded its market share.
From January to November 2023, new energy tractors (including pure electric, fuel cell and hybrid) accounted for only 4 percent of the total sales of tractor terminals93%, slightly higher than the sales of new energy heavy trucks in heavy truck terminals from January to November 485%, but this proportion is significantly lower than last year's annual new energy tractor in the tractor terminal sales of 693% of the proportion, compared with the new energy tractor in the tractor terminal sales from January to November last year 5The 73% share is also much lower. According to the observation of the first commercial vehicle network, from January to October this year, new energy tractors have been in a state of inforce, and the highest proportion of new energy models in the first 10 months is only 58%, in November, the new energy tractor created the highest 2,830 units of the year, and the proportion of terminal sales of tractors exceeded 10% for the first time in the year, reaching 1073%, which can be regarded as a small "outbreak", but the "outbreak" came a little late.
From January to November this year, although the proportion of new energy models in the current new energy models of leading tractor companies such as Jiefang and Sinotruk is significantly lower than that of the industry (as shown in the figure above), XCMG and three.
1. Long-range commercial vehicles, Beiben and other enterprises have long taken new energy models as their tractor sales responsibility, as can be seen in the figure above, XCMG, three.
1. The proportion of new energy models of long-range commercial vehicles and tractors sold in Beiben from January to November reached respectively. 93% and 3264%, in addition, the proportion of new energy tractors of JAC, Hongyan and Universiade is also higher than the overall proportion of the industry.
In 2022, most of the companies with a high proportion of new energy models in tractor sales have gained an increase in industry ranking or market share. In September and November this year, Yutong ranked among the top ten in the monthly list of tractors twice with the excellent performance of new energy products, proving that new energy tractors still have the strength to change the pattern of the tractor industry, but there are not many such "cases". There is only one month left in 2023, and there is only one last chance left for new energy tractors to counterattack.
Wrapping up
2023 is coming to an end, and FAW Jiefang has a market share of more than 3% of the tractor market, far ahead of other companiesAt the same time, the monthly ranking is changing every month, except for the liberation of no company can keep the monthly ranking unchanged for a long time, many companies on the threshold of the top ten repeatedly jumped, it is not difficult to see how fierce the competition in the tractor market this year is;On the other hand, last year's new energy tractor that continued to stir the tractor market pattern, this year's performance is unsatisfactory, and the momentum of natural gas tractor is strong, and the sales volume has exceeded that of diesel tractor for 6 consecutive months, and the cumulative sales of natural gas tractor from January to November increased by 352% year-on-year. In the last 1 month of 2023, will there be new surprises in the tractor market?Will there be any changes in the industry pattern at the end of the year?