At 9:30 p.m. yesterday evening, the United States released CPI data, and judging from the data, it was basically in line with expectations, with no surprises and no disappointments!U.S. stocks, which should have appeared, continued to attack upwards, showing a very strong willingness. In the early hours of tomorrow morning, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced, which is not expected to have a big impact on the market, because the rally has already been achieved.
The continuous adjustment of Chinese concept stocks has appeared slightly**, so from this point of view, today's Hong Kong stocks still have hope to continue to rise!
1. U.S. stock related information
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November CPI data, which was almost exactly in line with market expectations. Specifically, the US CPI in November was **3 year-on-year1%, expected 31%, unchanged compared to October;Core CPI excluding food and energy** was **4% year-on-year, expected to be 4%, compared with October**03%。
This data cannot be said to be bad, but it cannot be said to be very good, it can only be said that it is in line with expectations.
Markets have recently been expecting the Fed to cut rates as early as March next year, but traders have now lowered that expectation slightly, expecting the Fed to cut rates in May.
According to the CME's FedWatch tool, expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in March have fallen to 437%, and the probability of a rate cut in May is expected to be about 78%.
Therefore, in fact, after the release of the CPI data, the market should be more cautious, but the strength of the US stock market is still fully reflected!In fact, this also means that the market is full of confidence that the US economy can achieve a soft landing.
"Tomorrow Powell will have to 'err on the side of caution' to both recognise the progress made in economic normalization and delay the idea of an early rate cut," said TD strategist Oscar Munoz. We expect Powell to be inclined to oppose the Policy Committee's possible ** guidance, showing a cautious hawkishness at the press conference. ”
TD strategists note that the Fed will not ease policy easily unless there is a significant deterioration in the economy and labor market, or they are sure that inflation is moving sustainably towards its 2% target.
In the early hours of tomorrow morning, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and there is a high probability that it will not raise interest rates, that is, the interest rate hike cycle of more than a year will come to an end tomorrow, and then it will enter the expected interest rate cut cycle.
The content of Powell's speech tomorrow will have a certain impact on **, but it is estimated that it is only an intraday fluctuation and will not have a big impact on the upward trend.
Second, the overall performance of Europe and the United States
As of **, the Dow Jones rose 17301 point, an increase of 048% at 3657794 points;The Nasdaq rose 10091 points, an increase of 070% at 1453340 o'clock;The S&P 500 rose 2126 points, an increase of 046% at 464370 points.
The Nasdaq has hit a new short-term high on the daily time!
The weekly level has formed a clear breakout trend!If Powell's speech in the evening is more hawkish, it will be a *** opportunity!
The three major European stock indexes retreated slightly, with the UK's FTSE index **003%, German DAX index **002%, French CAC index, **011%！
3. The performance of U.S. stocks
Most of the popular technology stocks**, Broadcom rose more than 4%, AMD, Meta, Nvidia rose more than 2%, and Microsoft rose 082%, Amazon rose 106%, Apple rose 077%, Tesla fell 116%。
Angkor said that there is no need to worry about the trend of Nvidia!
Google A fell 059 percent, after Google lost an antitrust case over its market position in the app store, a blow to the company.
Oracle closed down 12%, its biggest one-day drop in the last three months, and the company's revenue for the second quarter of fiscal 2024 was $12.9 billion, slightly below market expectations of $130$500 million, cloud computing services revenue slowed for the second consecutive quarter.
Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks **, the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 044%。Tencent** rose more than 6%, Pinduoduo rose more than 2%, Vipshop, iQiyi, NetEase rose more than 1%, and Full Bang, Weibo, Bilibili, Futu Holdings, and Alibaba slightly**. Weilai fell more than 5%, Xiaopeng Motors fell more than 2%, and Li Auto and JD.com fell more than 1%, a slight **.
4. Exchange Rates and Commodities**
The U.S. dollar index retreated 022%, back below 104, the RMB exchange rate was basically stable, although it once regained 718 mark, but still lost 719！
Gold prices fell slightly, while ** fell sharply, down 367%, back below $70!
Industrial metals mostly go down!
5. Research and judgment on the trend of Hong Kong stocks and A-shares
1. The FTSE A50 fell slightly, the Hang Seng Index rose slightly, and combined with the performance of Chinese concept stocks, it is expected that Hong Kong stocks will continue to be the best today.
2. In terms of A-shares, continue to see whether the Shanghai Composite Index can break through 3007 upward, and if it can break through, it will continue, otherwise, there is a possibility of bottoming out again.
3. Judging from the current trend, the strength of U.S. stocks is very obvious, so it is optional to move **!
The above is for reference!Analysis