CPI and PPI data were released in November
CPI is actually the consumer price index, that is, the consumer index. On December 9, data just released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in November 2023, the national consumer consumption ** index (CPI) decreased by 05%, the third year-on-year negative growth in the year, and this growth rate was also in November 2020 (-0.).5%), prices are cheaper.
In fact, according to modern economics, CPI or low prices are not a good phenomenon, we explain through a simple cycle, first production in the factory, and then pay the workers, the workers take the salary to consume, consumption stimulates more production, then this cycle represents the GDP of the **, the GDP ** contains the expansion of production, the ** of wages and the ** consumption power.
So what does a sequential decline in CPI mean?It represents that the problem of demand contraction is still developing, and it means that when there is an inventory in this internal circulation, or that wages and spending power cannot match the current productivity, then adjusting wages and adjusting consumption power has become the key to the current economic problem. What's in the inventory this time?I think it's probably the shoes, clothes, socks, and hats that we produce on our low-end assembly line that can't be sold.
Expanding domestic demand has been a keynote for us throughout the year, and the high-level meeting has emphasized since the beginning of the year that "restoring and expanding demand is the key to the sustained economic recovery and improvement." The proactive fiscal policy should be strengthened to improve efficiency, and the prudent monetary policy should be precise and forceful, so as to form a joint force to expand demand. It is necessary to increase the income of urban and rural residents through multiple channels. In the previous paragraph, he once again emphasized: "It is necessary to focus on expanding domestic demand and forming a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other." "Next, it cannot be ruled out that we may further strengthen the policy of expanding domestic demand. We may cut interest rates further, and our 10-year Treasury note is currently at 2About 698%, maybe the national debt will fall below 2%, and the deposit interest rate, there is a high probability that we need to continue to reduce the interest rate.
But don't worry too much, because our CPI consumption index, the core is stable, and our biggest is the food and service industry, the food and service industries have been weak, indicating that everyone has no money to do some extra consumption, and they are not afraid to consume. In fact, as ordinary consumers, we can also take some measures to deal with the decline in prices. First of all, we can consume rationally, buy goods and services reasonably according to our needs, and effectively avoid waste. Secondly, you can pay more attention to preferential activities and information, reasonably choose purchase channels, and strive to enjoy more discounts. In addition, we can also increase our savings appropriately to prepare for possible economic fluctuations in the future.
And this year, our real policy has two benefits for ordinary people, the first is that our mortgage interest rate has fallen;The second is the preferential treatment of our personal income tax, in fact, it can be said that you can pay personal income tax now, you are already one of the top 10% of people in China, so we have to face the real social situation now, we use these data, we can see that there are certain investment opportunities in the future, or the opportunity to hedge risks, this is the reason why we need to pay attention to the data.