The current situation in the Taiwan Strait is treacherous and somewhat abnormal.
On November 30, Tsai Ing-wen said in a pre-recorded interview, "Maybe now is not the time for them (the mainland) to consider a big use of force against Taiwan." ”
On December 1, three American weight scholars jointly issued an article asking Lai Qingde to freeze the "** party platform".
The latest news is that Sun Xiaoya, director of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), said in an interview with NPR: "There is an important difference between making a plan, training and actually taking action, and Taiwan is not facing an imminent threat of force." ”
To sum up, it is the United States and Taiwan that have suddenly collectively made a 180-degree turn in the positioning of Taiwan as "fierce and dangerous".
So, what is implied by this latest ** turn between the United States and Taiwan?
Sorting out the recent changes in public opinion in the United States and Taiwan is obviously a position that has been coordinated in advance.
Starting with Tsai Ing-wen, to the articles of the three Taiwan-related scholars Ge Laiyi, to Sun Xiaoya, director of the "American Institute in Taiwan," the actual "guidance" department of the United States for Taiwan, all of them are turning.
This is essentially a request from the United States.
This reaction of the United States and Taiwan epitomizes the anxiety of the United States on two issues.
The first point is that the United States is still ready to support Lai Qingde and ***
Otherwise, he would not have personally arranged Xiao Meiqin, a very easy-to-operate puppet certified by the United States, for Lai Qingde. The earliest former "deputy" of Lai Qingde was Zheng Lijun, the head of Taiwan's so-called cultural department.
This person single-handedly directed the turmoil of the 2018 Golden Horse Awards, causing the mainland to withdraw directly from the "Golden Horse Awards" after that.
However, the United States means that if Zheng Lijun is matched with Lai Qingde, it may lose its supervision and influence on Lai, and the United States does not support Lai's continued provocation of the mainland, but needs Lai Qingde to follow the plan and progress of the United States, but Lai Qingde's performance makes Americans very uneasy.
Therefore, the United States needs to readjust the main issue of the 2024 game, which cannot be a "** issue", nor can it be the so-called "cross-strait war and danger".
The result of the US deduction is that if it does any more "anti-China and anti-China" operations in the last 30-odd days, the escalation of cross-strait confrontation and other issues will have a completely opposite effect.
Because the people on the island are tough in their mouths, but their bodies are honest, the slogan of "vote for *** youth to go to the battlefield" in 2022 will be very lethal to ***.
The second reason, as we have analyzed before, is that the United States must have "discovered" something.
All of the U.S. "systems" have sensed that China's warning to the "** combination" is based on a proactive and comprehensive preparation.
This "preparation" includes a concrete material level, and more importantly, a "determination" level. The latter is more forceful.
The United States has discovered a very serious problem, and in view of Lai Xiao's combination of "independence and independence," the mainland is now truly ready for military reunification.
And the United States does not want to have a showdown now, and its strategy is still a kind of "Ukrainian" attrition of Taiwan against the mainland, rather than his "assistance in defense".
Here's a detail.
On November 30, at the regular press conference of the Ministry of National Defense, a reporter asked directly"There are reports that China does not have a so-called" 2027 or 2035 attack on Taiwan plan, does this mean that an armed attack on Taiwan is still an option, but the timetable may be earlier?”
The "ingenuity" of this question lies in the fact that it will "not have the so-called 2027 and 2035" probably because a new logical chain was formed earlier. It directly slapped Tsai Ing-wen in the face.
Because there is no "2027 and 2035", it is precisely one of the reasons why Tsai Ing-wen said above that the mainland will not "attack Taiwan". She said it on purpose, and she was scared.
The truth is that it can be carried out at any time without the constraints of time, and who told Tsai Ing-wen that it is impossible without 2027?
That's not how it's understood.
Previously, Tsai Ing-wen's gang had constantly manipulated the so-called "grim cross-strait situation" in order to create an atmosphere of terror, and they hoped to find cohesive support from this panicBut now it's overdone, and the spring pulls out the elastic limit, and it can't come back.
That's probably the situation now.
This U.S.-Taiwan pivot is indeed a major turning point.
It is very simple to say, under normal circumstances, the signals expressed by the opposing sides are not true, so it can be understood that Tsai Ing-wen's "about the mainland will not use force against the mainland" is a wrong message. More likely, some of the things that worried the United States and Taiwan the most are happening.