Kunpeng Project
1. RMB, **US dollar, are you ready for the "3 major historical changes" in 2024?
**, in 2023 by a large margin**,The international gold price rose 134%;The global central bank's continued and trend increase in holdings has become the core factor of the sharp rise, and the People's Bank of China has continued to increase its holdings for 13 months
The US dollar, in 2023, is no longer in the limelight,Although the dollar will continue to raise interest rates in 2023, the dollar index will rise from 103 for the whole year5** to 10127**, down 215%, and it broke 100 in the middle of the year, with a minimum of 9955;Moreover, the dollar index is at 1148 high**, big**trend has been formed!
The renminbi will withstand the impact of the dollar's crazy interest rate hike in 20231 USD/CNY from 689** to 709**, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar fell slightly by 2 for the year91%;The 2023 low of the yuan is 734 and 2022 lows of 732. The technical double bottom is formed, and the technical relay adjustment is over.
The U.S. dollar is also the world's currency, but in 2022 and 2023, the U.S. dollar has unexpectedly become the focus of global conflictsOf course, this is the result of the United States making full use of the dollar's status as a world currency, freezing Russia's foreign exchange reserves, and so on, which has also brought huge changes to the US dollar and the yuanIn 2024, 3 major historical changes will begin!
First, in 2024, the post-dollar era is coming!
There is no such thing as a feast, and the dollar is no exceptionThere has never been a single paper currency in the history of the world that has become the world's currency forever, and the dollar was preceded by the pound sterling;The U.S. dollar replaced the British pound as the world currency in 1944, and it has been 79 years since the U.S. dollar became the world currency
It is an objective fact that the Federal Reserve uses the dollar to raise interest rates and cut interest rates to harvest the worldIn principle, the Fed's interest rate hike will improve the return level of risk-free assets in the United States, and under the pressure of the global economic downturn, global capital will tend to allocate more US dollar assets, thereby accelerating the transfer of funds from various countries to the United States.
The rate hike that began in March 2022 was the largest in 40 years in the United StatesThe benchmark interest rate of the US dollar has reached 525%-5.5%, the Fed's crazy interest rate hike has seriously damaged global economic growth;However, this is not the first time that the Federal Reserve has done this, and countries have also had some experience in dealing with the crazy interest rate hikes of the dollar, although it has damaged the economies of various countries (for example, Argentina's inflation rate reached 142%), but the only country that has gone bankrupt is Sri Lanka, and the dollar harvest around the world has not achieved the expected effect.
In 2024, the dollar will undoubtedly enter a cycle of interest rate cutsAlthough the US CPI is still as high as 31%, but in the United States, whether the U.S. economy can grow is related to votes, even if the U.S. CPI data cannot fall to the Fed Chairman Powell's target of 2%, but the arms can't twist the thighs, the Fed will inevitably start a cycle of interest rate cuts under the pressure of the United States.
According to the Goldman Sachs report, the U.S. dollar exchange rate is overvalued by 18%, which also means that the U.S. dollar will inevitably enter a sharp depreciation cycle with the advent of the interest rate cut cycle.
Of course, if only the US dollar cuts interest rates, it cannot fundamentally shake the US dollar's status as a world currencyHowever, because the Americans have unscrupulously used the dollar's status as a world currency, they have frozen the foreign exchange reserves of global companies, private individuals, and even the Russian stateThis person is undoubtedly at risk for investors who hold US dollar assets in various countries around the worldMost countries in the world, including Australia, Canada, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, China, Japan, South Korea, India, the United Arab Emirates, Germany, the United Kingdom, etc., have trended towards de-dollarization, which will inevitably exacerbate the pressure on the dollar to depreciate sharply.
Add to that the high domestic deficit, high debt, and serious hollowing out of the manufacturing industryIn 2024, the global de-dollar will not only be trended, but also large-scale, and the historical process of the post-dollar era will begin in 2024.
Second, the international status of the renminbi will be even more important
The US dollar raised interest rates wildly in 2022, which made the dollar index significantly stronger for non-economic reasonsThis also interrupted the process of stable appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, allowing the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar to increase from 63 large ** to a minimum of 734。
In order to avoid being harvested by the Fed, major countries have followed the Fed and started raising interest rates. The exception is China, which is under tremendous pressure from the depreciation of the renminbi and is adopting the exact opposite monetary policy to the Federal ReserveThe aim is to protect our economic fundamentals;China has undoubtedly done just that, with economic growth of 52%。
Due to the weakness of the US dollar index in 2023, the internationalization of the RMB is acceleratingFrom January to September 2023, the amount of RMB cross-border receipts and payments will be 389 trillion yuan, an increase of 24%;In terms of amount, the RMB accounted for 5% of the world's ** financing in September8%, more than the euro share (5.).43%)。
The renminbi surpassed the yen in November 2023 to become the fourth largest currency in international payments, according to transaction data compiled by SWIFT, a global financial information service。The renminbi accounted for a share of global payment transactions in November, up from 36% to 46%, which is more than 3 percent of the yen4%。
In 2024, as the US dollar enters the interest rate cut cycle, the global de-US dollar scale, and the trend impact, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will undoubtedly re-enter the general trend of appreciationBefore the US dollar raised interest rates in March 2022, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was 63;The U.S. dollar index is 953。
Coupled with global de-dollarization, the huge US national debt has steadily increased, and the fiscal deficit has been as usualThe U.S. dollar index is under great pressure to depreciate in the interest rate cut cycle, and there is a great chance that the U.S. dollar index will fall below the 90 key point, which will undoubtedly increase the pressure on the appreciation of the yuan in 2024, and the currency will appreciateNaturally, it will also make the renminbi more popular in the world and more important in the world
Thirdly, the strategic position is more important!
Prosperous jewelry, troubled times**!Although**in 2023 has been substantially**,However, there is no end to the global conflict in 2024, and there is a risk of intensification, which will inevitably stimulate the hedging function;In addition, the dollar has started a big depreciation trend, the risk of dollar depreciation and the strategy of de-dollarization, the demand is still very large, which will undoubtedly promote the future of the dollar, and the strategic position of the dollar will be more important!
In summary, in 2024, although the interest rate of the dollar is still very high, the sharp depreciation of the dollar will make the investors who hold the dollar lose more than they lose, and, with ,The analysis of the U.S. fiscal and bank failures brought about by the huge U.S. national debt will make the U.S. economy worse, and the U.S. dollar will face a huge depreciation analysis.
The RMB will undoubtedly be a year of appreciation in 2024, and the internationalization of the RMB will inevitably accelerate
2. Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Europe** analysis.
Dow Jones 2024**137%, an all-time high;S&P 500 Index 2024**2423%, NASDAQ 2024**4342;The three major indices belong to the ** trend,The Dow Jones index is already at an all-time high, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 index are at all-time highs**, and the trend of U.S. stocks continues to be slow
Germany's DAX30 index 2024**2031%, an all-time high, the French CAC40 index in 2024**1652%, an all-time high;, FTSE 100 2024**375%;The UK is also a record high, with the end of the dollar interest rate hike cycle, the European technical side continues to have a good chance of rising!
International gold price in 2024**134% at $2,220 per ounce;Brent 2024 1036%, * in 77$08 barrel, technical analysis, continues to fallThe opportunity is great, but **, oil prices are greatly affected by the rise and fall of the dollar index.
3. Trend analysis of the Shanghai Composite Index, ChiNext Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index, and northbound capital data.
Shanghai Composite Index 2024**37%, Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 Index 2024**1124%, Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index 2024**1354%, ChiNext Index 2024**1941%;A sharesThe bottom of the policy has been determined, Europe and the United States have entered a bull market, the market bottom has come out with great certainty, and the A-share market has come out of a ** *** in line with the technical and policy characteristics!
Key Sector: Bull Market PioneerBrokerage sector 2024**575%, the banking sector in 2024**1073%, insurance 2024**1312%, the big financial sector belongs to the ** after the breakthrough of the wash, the trend is leading the ** index,If the large financial sector continues to strengthen, it will drive the Shanghai Composite Index to strengthen
Fourth, Buffett's experience interpretation.
An excellent company with a reasonable *** is better than a mediocre company with a low price. Finding undervalued companies is not the only criterion, but also looking at the fundamentals to judge whether the company is good.
Value investment is the core of Warren Buffett's success, and the essence is"The performance of listed companies continues to grow, driving the stock price to continue to grow"!
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