The Lijian-1 rocket was launched at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center.
Looking forward to not only commercial rockets, but also the spring of commercial spaceflight. The full text is 3497 words, and the reading time is about 12 minutes, and one of the hot topics among space enthusiasts is commercial rocket launches. Looking forward to the end of 2023, next year's commercial rocket launches will present many characteristics. China's commercial rocket production and launch, the former is limited by the market, production, research and development capabilities, from the news of various enterprises, can be seen.
The latter is based on the launch site's support capabilities, which is also the basis for satisfying China's commercial rocket launch program.
Chinese commercial rockets, where can they be launched?Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center (JSLC), also known as "Dongfeng Space City", is located in the northeast of Jiuquan City, Gansu Province, adjacent to Ejina, Inner Mongolia, covering an area of about 2,800 square kilometers.
Figure Jiuquan commercial rocket launch inventory (according to public information such as wikipedia).
The Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center is an ideal place to launch spacecraft for about 300 days a year, with a flat terrain, sparsely populated, dry and little rain, and is known to have launched at least 11 types of commercial rockets here.
Shandong Haiyang Oriental Spaceport is located in Haiyang, Yantai, launched in 2019, after several years of rapid development, Haiyang Oriental Spaceport has an annual output of 20 solid launch vehicles ** test capabilities and sea launch support capabilities.
Figure: Haiyang Oriental Spaceport launch inventory (according to public information such as wikipedia).
Hainan Commercial Spacecraft Launch Site is the first commercial space launch site in China to start construction, which was invested and built by Hainan International Commercial Space Launch Site.
Figure: The situation of the Wenchang commercial launch site in Hainan (according to public information such as wikipedia).
Solid engine14m 22 m 2The 6-meter series solid rocket engine has been established as an engine company specifically for commercial aerospace support, and has now covered all commercial solid rockets.
Liquid engine: The Sixth Academy of Aerospace Science and Technology has established a special commercial development company, and the YF102 engine has been successfully matched with the Tianlong-2 launch vehicle of Tianbing Technology, and will further support the demand for liquid oxygen kerosene engines of other commercial rockets in the future.
Arrow body matching: storage tanks, parts, machining, laser welding and other upstream and downstream ** are becoming more and more perfect. Judging from the public information, Jiutian Xingge, Qianjiu and other first-class merchants have become mainstream partners of civil and commercial rockets in the industry, and have undertaken the supporting tasks of multi-type related products.
As of December 13, a total of 12 civilian and commercial rockets have been launched in 2023 (11 successful, 1 failed). At least three are planned, with launches expected to be completed by January 2024 at the latest.
Figure 2023 Minshang rocket launch summary (not included in Lijian 1), photo source 3D Explorer.
According to the comprehensive information of relevant people from a number of satellite companies: as of December, the launch plans of various civilian and commercial rocket companies in 2024 are about 18 launches. Among them, Ceres-1 has 6 shots, Lijian 1 has 5 shots, Hyperbola 1 has 3 shots, Suzaku 2 has 3 shots, and Gravity 1 has 1 shot.
Based on the launch plan and launch site situation in 2024, commercial rocket launches next year are expected to show the following characteristics:
Solid rocket launches are mostly concentrated in Jiuquan and Haiyang. Combined with the launch of commercial rockets in 2023, solid rockets in 2024 will be launched on a regular basis, and will still be launched at Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center (LC120, LC95, etc.) and Haiyang Dongfang Spaceport (launch ship).
Liquid rocket launches, mostly concentrated in Jiuquan. According to this year's Suzaku 2 launch and hyperbola 2Y test, next year's similar missions and tests will still use the existing launch site (LC96) and the integrated simple launch apron (LC130).
The Wenchang commercial launch site (No. 1 and No. 2 stations) will usher in the first flight of rockets (Long March 8 and XLV rockets) in 2024. According to Hainan Commercial Development News, the No. 2 launch station is the first universal launch station, which can provide launch services for 19 types of rockets. In October this year, the AC launch plan and process of the new rocket "XLV type rocket", which will make its first flight at the No. 2 launch station, have been clarified.
2024 Civil and Commercial Rocket Launch Outlook 2023 Annual Inventory (in irrespective order).Interstellar gloryHyperbola No. 1: 3 plans in 2024.
Hyperbola 3: There is no information in the 2024 plan, and the first flight will not be earlier than Galaxy Power.
It is not easy for the interstellar glory to return to flight, and continue to exert force. The recent VTVL trials of Hyperbola-2 were successful. However, VTVL is an important validation in the initial phase, and the engine system is usually the same as the official model (refer to SpaceX's VTVL verification), while the VTVL test of Hyperbola 2 uses a 15-ton engine (JD1, not the engine used in Hyperbola 3).
The current VTVL tests are not strongly correlated with future reusable rockets, the progress of the Hyperbola-3 rocket that truly serves the market has not been publicly reported, and its 100-ton engine (JD2) has not yet been involved in flight tests, and the overall progress may be lower than expected.
Tianbing TechnologyTianlong II: No information is available in the 2024 plan.
Tianlong 3: No information is available in the 2024 plan. Judging from the Wenchang commercial launch station alone, it is necessary to give priority to ensuring the first flight of Chang-8 and XLV in 2024, and it is difficult for Tianlong-3 to have a schedule, and it may be a realistic rhythm to achieve launch in 2025.
Thanks to the mature supporting facilities and technical support of the Aerospace Science and Technology Group, Tianlong-2 has achieved the success of its first flight, and it is not yet known whether it will be launched again in 2024 (there are no plans yet).
As a brand-new rocket, Tianlong-3 has a power that surpasses YF102 and XLV in scale. In terms of development and launch support, it needs to go through the necessary process, including the necessary ground tests, which will inevitably require Tianbing Technology to solve many new problems independently, and if the first flight is achieved in 2025, it is also an excellent goal. Judging from the current launch plan and the support capacity of the launch site, it is possible that the Heavenly Soldiers will be absent from the launch next year.
Galaxy PowerCeres-1: More than 6 rounds are expected to be launched in 2024.
Zhishenxing-1: No information is available in the 2024 plan, and the first flight is expected or will be expected in 2025. (For the same reason, Wenchang No. 2 station).
Galaxy Power is known for its stability. Solid rockets have steadily achieved the highest frequency launch of civilian and commercial solid rockets;Liquid rockets are advancing steadily, mainly self-developed. Ceres-1 has achieved regular launches, and the progress of the next generation of liquid rockets, Zhishen-1, will be key.
Zhongke Aerospace
Lijian No. 1: 5 launches in 2024 plan, gradually realize the higher frequency flight of solid rockets, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences surpasses the Aerospace Science and Technology Group in terms of solid rocket launch capabilities. According to various data, the comprehensive capacity of Lijian No. 1 surpasses that of Jielong 3 (the largest solid rocket in China before), and the current transportation capacity is the largest solid rocket in China, becoming a strong competitor of Jielong rocket.
Arrow II: No information is available in the 2024 plan. According to official information, the first flight will take place in 2025.
Zhongke Aerospace is the only two mixed-ownership rocket companies in China, and can be supported by the Academy of Sciences in terms of supporting guarantees, funding applications, and regulatory mediation. At the same time, it gives the team the guarantee of the establishment, the unique occupational safety, and the most attractive system guarantee for the R&D personnel. The Institute of Mechanics has devoted a lot of scientific research resources to full support, which is the core advantage that no private enterprise has. With the blessing of the Academy of Sciences, the aerospace science and technology is mature and supporting the engine, the team not only enjoys the guarantee within the system, but also has market-oriented returns.
Blue Arrow AerospaceSuzaku II: 3 rounds planned for 2024.
Suzaku III: No information is available in the 2024 plan. According to official information, the first flight will take place in 2025.
Blue Arrow's Suzaku II was delivered in small batches and began to iterate. However, the current carrying capacity of the ZQ2 is only 18 tons, the official target capacity is 45 tons, in order to increase the capacity, it is inevitable to change the technical status next year, which will also bring challenges to the continuous flight next year.
According to information from business personnel close to the Blue Arrow market, there will be 6 Suzaku 2 launches in 2025, and the first flight of Suzaku 3. In addition to the improvement of the status of Suzaku 2, Suzaku 3 will continue to enter the engineering stage to do a lot of intensive tests, which will also be a new challenge for Blue Arrow Aerospace.
Oriental Space
Gravity 1: The first flight in 2023 (expected to be delayed), and the 1 launch plan in 2024.
No information is available in Gravity II: Project 2024. According to official information, the first flight will take place in 2025.
The world's largest solid rocket, Gravity-1, is a strong challenger to Lijian 1 (if Gravity-1 succeeds in its first flight, its capacity will surpass all domestic solid rockets in one fell swoop). However, it has only one launch plan in 2024, and for domestic commercial solid rockets, this situation will basically point to the blockage of engine procurement, or based on product profitability considerations.
Compared with the Lijian 1 of CAS Aerospace, there is a big gap between the supporting support capacity and the profitability of the product, and the mixed ownership attribute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has become the magic weapon of CAS Aerospace. Yang Yiqiang, the helmsman, is the commander-in-chief of the former national key solid carrier model"Godfather of commercial astronautics"The status has been gradually established, and Oriental Space needs to find a way out in the cracks of Zhongke Aerospace.
It is a good thing for a hundred flowers to bloom, but for commercial rockets, reducing costs, controlling batch production, and increasing transportation capacity are the three problems that cannot be avoided, and the cost and batch production are closely related to independent research and development capabilities.
At present, many rockets are in the sky, and perhaps the biggest winners are the Fourth Academy of Aerospace and the Sixth Academy of Aerospace (which provide solid engines and liquid engines to the market respectively). The core components and technology of China's commercial rockets are independent and controllable, and they still need to be accelerated.
From December 11th to 12th, the ** Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing. The meeting emphasized ......It is necessary to build a number of strategic emerging industrial ...... such as biomanufacturing, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economyEncourage the development of venture capital and equity investment.
Today, we may not only look forward to commercial rockets, but also the spring of commercial spaceflight.
2024 is expected.
References and References:
New launch site, new model New rocket, the first flight of the XLV rocket, was dedicated to the Hainan commercial space launch site
The first commercial space launch site in China: the Long March 8
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