Is the A-share bull market coming The Shanghai Composite ** Index was weak after seeing a low of 2923 points on October 23 this year**, and is currently falling back to around 3010 points, which is the third dip after falling to a low of 2863 points on April 27 last year and a low of 2885 points on November 4, and it is estimated that the bottom area near 3000 points has been the bottom area in the past two years.
First of all, there are signs that the US dollar rate hikes have stopped, and the dollar index has begun to enter a downward channel after consolidating for a month after seeing a high of 107 points on October 3. The RMB is expected to appreciate more after experiencing the pressure of US dollar interest rate hikes, from the offshore US dollar to RMB 7 on September 8365 yuan, ** higher, to the beginning of December below 7 yuan, RMB appreciation of more than three percentage points, with the appreciation of RMB is expected to increase, international capital will reconsider the allocation of RMB assets. And domestic funds will be more active in entering the a** field.
Secondly, around 3,000 points is the bottom area of the policy, and the bottom of the market is nearing the end after nearly a year of consolidation. Coupled with the support and care of relevant national policies, especially the recent entry of the state-owned capital Guoxin Holdings' Guoxin Investment **Central Enterprise Science and Technology Index**, which has strengthened China's confidence. Technically, the structure of the triple bottom is gradually formed, indicating that the end of the year and the beginning of the year may break out at any time.
Third, the international situation is becoming clearer, and the lower-than-expected domestic economic recovery has been reflected in the trend of the first country, and everything is developing in a positive way. Although there will be twists and turns, the general direction will not change. As for the emergence of the L bottom or the U-shaped bottom, we can only wait for the market itself to verify, we maintain confidence in China on the basis of maintaining caution and patience.
In terms of operation, it is necessary to be cautious in the pace of the sector and the entry, and the first thing is to avoid possible problems at the end of the year. The subdivision direction of science and technology and the sectors supported by national policies and occupy a place in the world have more capital attention, such as smart cars, military industry, memory chips and semiconductors. In the large consumption sector, tourism, hotels and pharmaceuticals have great potential; Cyclical steel, coal, pork, etc. also have phased opportunities. In short, looking forward to 2024, the overall opportunities in China outweigh the risks, are you ready?