Reference News Network, December 22** (Wen Ze'an) As the Palestinian-Israeli conflict drags on for a long time, the risk of its spillover continues to intensify. Recently, the United States announced the formation of a so-called Red Sea "escort alliance" in response to Houthi attacks on "Israeli-related" vessels in the waters. The Houthis responded that they would retaliate against the United States if they were targeted.
The Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea waters are intended to show solidarity with Hamas and put pressure on Israel. The move poses a threat to the safety of shipping in the waters, forcing merchant ships to increase security investments or divert to the Cape of Good Hope. Therefore, the United States decided to launch the "Prosperity Guardian" operation, which brought together many countries to provide escort for merchant ships. But how much role can the US-led "escort alliance" really play?
The response of the coalition countries was limited.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said the United States, the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain would join the "escort alliance."
However, some of these countries have been vague or have limited participation.
Spain said it would only participate in NATO-led missions or EU-coordinated operations, and "will not participate unilaterally in operations in the Red Sea."
Italy said it would send ** to the Red Sea, but also pointed out that it was part of the country's original operation and was not part of Operation Prosperity Defenders.
The Netherlands and Norway, on the other hand, "send only men, not ships": they sent only naval officers to Bahrain, where the headquarters of the "escort coalition" was located.
The U.S. Navy's Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Carney passes through the Suez Canal on October 18, 2023. (Reuters data**).
None of the countries bordering the Red Sea (Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Egypt, Sudan, Israel, Jordan, Eritrea, Djibouti) are members of the Escort Alliance. The most surprising of these should be the non-accession of Saudi Arabia. The country, which relies on 36 percent of imports from the Red Sea, has been in conflict with the Houthis in recent years, and the Saudi army is heavily equipped with American equipment.
The Reuters report notes that Saudi Arabia is absent from the "escort coalition" because it does not want a conflict with Iran and avoids jeopardizing the peace process in Yemen. Saudi Arabia is adjusting its regional policy, re-examining its relationship with Israel and resolving grievances with Iran, the report said.
The cost of the coalition strike is worrying.
As previously reported by AFP, the Houthis have a variety of missiles and drones in their arsenal, including the Typhoon missiles with a range of between 1,600 and 1,900 kilometers, the Quds missiles with a range of about 1,650 kilometers, and the Samad-3 drones with a range of about 1,600 kilometers.
A missile armed by the Houthis. (AFP material**).
The main U.S. military ship to deal with these ** will be the Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers. CNN **19** said that a destroyer of this class in the US Navy successfully shot down more than a dozen Houthi drones in the Red Sea on the 16th, but the US military did not disclose what it **used** to counter drones.
Specifically, one Arleigh Burke-class destroyer has these air defense systems: "Standard" -6 anti-aircraft missiles with a range of up to 240 km and a cost of about $4 million per missile;"Standard"-2 anti-aircraft missiles with a range of up to 185 km, each costing about 2.5 million dollars;Sea Sparrow missiles, which have a range of up to 50 kilometers and cost about $1 million each, are used to combat low-speed threats such as cruise missiles and drones127 mm caliber naval guns;The "Phalanx" close defense system can fire 4,500 rounds per minute, mainly used to deal with distances **1Threat of drones or missiles within 6 km.
CNN reported that experts believe that at present, the United States mainly uses Standard-2 and Sea Sparrow missiles to counter the threat of the Houthis. However, experts also point out that a prolonged confrontation could end up burdening the U.S. military in the face of drones that can be mass-produced and deployed for less than $100,000 each.
Alessio Patarano, professor of war and strategy at King's College London, said: "The average cost of these advanced aerial interception capabilities is about $2 million, and intercepting drones is not cost-effective. ”
A less expensive means of interception is the "Phalanx" system. But the system is also the last line of defense, and if it is not stopped, it may cause damage or personnel. Moreover, due to the limited range of defense of the "Phalanx" system, it is difficult to provide protection for merchant ships at a distance of several kilometers. To provide wide-area air defense, it is still necessary to rely on anti-aircraft missiles.
The Phalanx close defense system on the USS Graveley missile destroyer of the US Navy. (AP Source**).
In addition, CNN also pointed out that each ** carries a limited amount of ammunition, and Salvatore Mel Cogliano, a naval expert and professor at Campbell University in the United States, said that if the Houthis can deplete the ammunition stocks of one ** through continuous attacks, the ** may find itself short of ammunition to protect merchant ships.
As a result, amid concerns about the cost-effectiveness of interdiction, some experts have suggested that at some point the United States may decide that it must attack.
Carl Schuster, former chief of operations at the Joint Intelligence Center of the US Pacific Command, said: "There is also a course of action to strike at the source. This will shift the focus from intercepting their ability in the air to striking them at the source, that is, to stop their use in the first place. ”
"If you have the choice and the ability, it's cheaper to take out an archer than to stop a bow and arrow," Schuster said. ”
As Schuster said, in the current situation of tension between the United States and the Houthis, the US-led escort operation may turn into a fuse for a direct conflict between the two sides, and such a situation will do more harm than good to the end of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.