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This week, the Shanghai Composite Index broke another 3,000 points, and the small ** type that was hotly hyped last week also died down this week. Only the Beijing Stock Exchange Index rose sharply this week to recover some of its decline.
At a time when major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, SSE 50, and ChiNext have hit new lows one after another, the market's ups and downs are driven by emotions, and investors have become soldiers.
This week, Moody's downgraded our rating, revising our outlook from "stable" to "negative, but keeping China's sovereign credit rating unchanged.
Historically, Moody's has adjusted the market trend to negative for our ratings, not necessarily downAdjusted to a positive one, ** may not rise, Moody's evaluation has no inevitable relationship with the subsequent trend of **.
An important meeting will be held on December 8 this week to analyze and study the economic work in 2024. It emphasizes the continued implementation of a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. The proactive fiscal policy should be moderately strengthened, improve quality and efficiency, and the prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective. It is clear that "first establish and then break", before the big technology industry and high-end manufacturing industry are not established, real estate must continue to be saved, and the policy of suppression is not allowed.
In fact, the impact of this meeting on the first is still relatively large, and the monetary policy should be precise, so it is unlikely to be flooded. Because what is needed is large funds, flood irrigation, and currency issuance, and now the policy has turned to precise transmission, which will inevitably affect the amount of funds in the market.
The meeting also mentioned that "it is necessary to lead the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation", and it is likely that the policy will be tilted in the direction of high-tech industries such as artificial intelligence, new energy, chips, and semiconductors in the next few years.
I hope that everyone will give some time for policy, regulation and economic recovery on the premise of adhering to valuation and confidence. Do a good job in the reasonable and balanced allocation of the best, patiently wait for the summer and autumn harvest, let us witness everyone's persistence and efforts in the process of this round of bear to bull!
Each of us should be a Buddhist investor, allocate your cash, bonds, ** and other assets, and then do not guess, do not predict, follow market fluctuations, and enjoy long-term assets**, which is the fundamental way of investment.
In Xueqiu, I created a self-selected **combination of $Handsome Guy's Asset Allocation (fp0025267)$ in the last month**394%。
My balanced allocation of stocks and bonds (80:20) has a large margin of safety, which is already more aggressive in the current downturn in the market environment, and there is 20% fixed income, which can continue to make balanced replenishment, and the market sentiment is so pessimistic, and it is actually cheaper to buy anything now. If you do a good job in fund allocation management, there is actually nothing to panic about, and wait patiently for the wind to come.
This weekLarge and small plates of mud and sand.
*In terms of composite indexes, the CSI All-Share Index and the Shanghai Composite Index have been adjusted for three consecutive weeks. CSI All-Index**215%, Shanghai Composite Index**205%。
The CSI 300 Index has been the fifth week in a row, and this week's is 24%, a new low in this round of adjustment, from the highest point of 5930 points, to the current 3400 points, the overall decline has reached 426%。
*In terms of value index, SSE 50**163%, a new low in this round of adjustment, from the highest point of 4110 points, to the current 2281 points, the overall decline has reached 445%。
Dividend Index** 086%, although the overall trend is still **, but from the weekly point of view, this week has fallen below infinity**.
*In terms of growth index, the GEM **06%, a new low in this round of adjustment, from the highest point of 3576 points, to the current 1892 points, the overall decline has reached 471%。
The science and technology 50 rose because of the end of the market**008%, from the highest point of 1639 points, to the current 868 points, the overall decline has reached 47%.
In terms of small and medium-sized micro caps, CSI 500**124%, CSI 1000**207%, CSI 2000**254%。If the weak recovery continues, the value will still not perform well, and the so-called lipstick effect of small and medium-sized micro enterprises may still have.
The BSE 50 rose 822%。
The rise and fall of the short-term index is mainly sentiment and policy game, which is of little significance to the market outlook.
This week, the weekly level of the dividend index fell back below infinity**.
In the long run, the dividend index is still relatively stable and is an important component of the stable all-index market.
The Hang Seng Index fell 2 percent this week95%。
The performance of Hong Kong stocks depends on the domestic economy, and the capital depends on the US dollar index and exchange rate.
Last week, U.S. bond interest rates fell, and the Hang Seng Index did not reflect good liquidity, indicating that ** is still worried about the mainland economy.
Domestic economic and financial data has not turned around, in October this year, M1, M2 scissors difference fell again, 1-10 months above the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size also fell by 7 year-on-year8%, and the manufacturing PMI data for November was also very average, indicating that the manufacturing industry has not recovered either.
However, the elasticity of Hong Kong stocks is very high, if the long-end interest rate of U.S. bonds continues to fall, overseas capital sees the certainty of recovery in the mainland, and the first stop of the return is Hong Kong.
China's 10-year government bond interest rate was largely stable this week.
Since the end of November, the central bank has continued to increase liquidity (such as the continuation of MLF) or cut the reserve requirement ratio to replenish the medium and long-term liquidity of the banking system, and the short-term funding crunch has eased.
With the recent decline in the yield of 10-year treasury bonds, the yield of CSI composite bonds has begun to return to 407%。
In the future, if the economy recovers and the demand for funds increases, the interest rate on long-term bonds is likely to continue to rise, resulting in an increase in the probability of adjustment of bond market fluctuations. （It is common sense that the better the economy, the worse the bonds, and the worse the economy, the better the bonds.
On December 8, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released: Non-farm payrolls increased by 19 in November 202390,000, slightly higher than market expectations, and the unemployment rate fell back to 3 in November7%, the prospect of a soft landing for the economy remains, with a 10-year yield** to 422%
Overall, the continuous slowdown in US inflation and labor market data indicates that the Fed's interest rate hike cycle is likely to be over. There is still a lot of room to go to the Fed's 2% inflation target, and the long-term trend of the pivot in U.S. Treasury interest rates may continue to decline, and the interest rate differential between China and the United States still exists. We maintain our view on Fed rate cuts and a sharp decline in US Treasury yields in 2024.
1) The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond interest rate has been slightly higher this week, and has remained at 4 since December2 nearby.
2) Affected by the rise in U.S. Treasury interest rates, the U.S. dollar index ended three consecutive negative days this week, **077%。
3) After three consecutive weeks of sharp rises in the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, this week was affected by the US dollar**0.86%。
At present, the interest rate hike cycle in Europe and the United States has come to an end, and the world economy is likely to reflect a recession in the future, and the direction of commodities and energy is still bearish.
Because if the interest rate is locked at the current level for a long time or continues to raise interest rates, social production and operation will incur a huge capital cost, and the economy will enter a greater risk period. The possibility of a large market category is not ruled out.
(1) The two major commodity indices in the international market
The global commodity index this week, the Reuters CRB commodity index continues this week.
In the medium term, the trend of commodity indices is still downward.
Weaker commodity indices indicate a contraction in global economic activity, weaker demand for commodities, and growing fears of a recession among investors, so commodities remain bearish.
(2) Domestic commodity index
China's commodity index was 101 in November3%, down 1 from the previous month5 percentage points, ** index, sales index continued**, inventory index rose for two consecutive months.
The index has been in the index for two consecutive months**, and the off-season characteristics of the commodity market have emerged. Economic demand is still relatively weak, the contradiction between market supply and demand will intensify in stages, and inventory pressure will also increase.
This week, the South China Composite Commodity Index was slightly **, showing that the current domestic economy is still in the recovery process, the effective new demand is insufficient, the market demand has not continued to recover as expected, the pressure on the domestic commodity market has not been significantly eased, and the overall commodity ** center of gravity will move downward.
3)**This Week***451%。
For the seventh consecutive week**, the longest record since 2018. The global manufacturing economy is sluggish, the U.S. Cushing inventory and refined oil inventories continue to accumulate, and the weak outlook for excess demand makes the market pessimistic about the market outlook.
For the future trend of oil prices, from the supply side, on the one hand, OPEC and other major oil producers failed to reach an agreement on the extension of production cuts. On the other hand, U.S.** production and inventories continue to remain at record highs. Excess production suppression on the supply side
From the demand side, whether the specific demand increases or decreases depends on the future economic development of China and the United States. For now, the deterioration in the global economic outlook has lowered the outlook for consumption. Weak U.S. economic data has reduced demand marginally. The marginal improvement effect of China's economy is not obvious, and the supporting effect on China is not large.
4) In terms of the market, the international gold price rose and fell, for the first time in nearly four weeks.
* A "glorious" break above $2,150 in early trading on Monday morning ushered in a new all-time high, followed by a higher dollar and profit-taking factors, which weighed on gold prices.
After reaching a record high in the past 3 years, it is basically stable, and now do not "chase" the increase, because it is not only the interest rate that drives the growth.
It may reflect the weakening of the U.S. macroeconomy, the end of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle, and the intensification of geopolitical conflictsIt may also reflect the Fed's interest rate hike expectations rising and the world economy recovering and investors' risk aversion cooling.
Due to the existence of these two opposite trend probabilities, in the medium and long term, the international gold price still has the best space, and the short-term is expected to show a high trend, do not blindly chase up, we recommend wait-and-see and do not allocation.
The current valuation quantile or equity risk premium of the major indices also indicates that the market position is at a low position over the years, and the overall downward space may be relatively limited, the index has a certain upside, has a high cost performance, and the medium and long-term market opportunities outweigh the risks, and there is enough margin of safety.
At present, the PE quantile of most indices is below the historical average, and A-shares are at a low position as a whole, but there will be times when the wind and waves will break through, and A-shares are now assets with high investment cost performance.
Wind all-A equity and bond risk premium of 321%, compared to the average of 2 over the past decade35%, which is currently at the highest level of the last decade, above 8496% of the time. It shows that the current ** cost performance is high.
Risk Warning: The views mentioned in this article are personal opinions only, do not constitute investment advice, and are time-sensitive and for reference only. The subject matter involved is not recommended, and it is bought and sold at your own risk. Investment advisors are not principal-protected and do not guarantee returns. The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious!
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