The chip industry may collapse U.S. chips have been hit hard, and Chinese manufacturing may benefit from this
Previously, the lithography machine giant ASML had said that the current chip supply is still tight, but recently, some foreign analysts pointed out that the current situation of the world's chip industry has improved, and it is expected that next year, global chip production may be reduced by 20%, and there will be an oversupply of chips, and the American chip industry will suffer a heavy blow, but for China, it is good.
In fact, earlier this year, China's mobile phone shipments fell sharply, and the famous Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes that the current global mobile phone chip ** is seriously insufficient, and the entire ** chain of chip inventory, enough to last six to nine months**.
ASML executives are still boasting, saying that the demand for chips is still tight, while the demand for lithography equipment is still high, and ASML itself has released a report saying that the shipment of lithography machines has fallen sharply, resulting in a 19% year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit.
Subsequently, there were signs of recession in other areas, including China, where car sales in April were **47 year-on-year6%, and PC sales, which rebounded in 2021, have also fallen, in addition, many industries with high demand for chips have also shown a downward trend, and it is hard to imagine that the demand for chips will continue to be tight.
In fact, as early as more than a year ago, some people in the industry have pointed out that this is not because of market demand, but because of the impact of the epidemic in the United States, many manufacturers are hoarding products, and hoarding products will make the supply of chips more scarce, resulting in a shortage of chips.
Now, after more than a year of inventory, the sales of many products have not only not increased, but even declined, which has naturally caused a large number of chip inventories to accumulate in the company, and it is difficult to ease the demand for chips, which makes speculative capital hoard a large number of chips in the market, resulting in a situation where supply exceeds demand.
After all, the United States occupies nearly 50% of the semiconductor market share in the world, and the United States also occupies an absolute advantage in other industries, and the price reduction of chips will inevitably have a heavy impact on the semiconductor industry in the United States.
In addition, another factor that has been hit hard by the U.S. chip industry is that the U.S. chip industry is mainly concentrated in high-end chips, and when the chips are excessive, manufacturers reduce production costs and reduce the number of high-end chips they buy, which is undoubtedly unfavorable for U.S. chips.
This move provides several favorable conditions for China's "manufacturing", first, it reduces the cost of Chinese products, because of the previous high level, China's "production" has suffered a heavy impact, because the previous high chip ** continues to rise.
Secondly, due to the previous shortage of chip supply, American chip manufacturers will definitely give priority to European automakers, Apple in the United States, Samsung in South Korea and other manufacturers, because there is a large amount of chip production capacity, and the supply of Chinese manufacturers will also be alleviated.
Again, China's chips have achieved a certain success, China's chips and China's products have the same cost advantage, but in the level of science and technology with the United States products to compete, but in the period of overcapacity, China's chips can use their cost performance to seize a larger share, thereby promoting the development of China's integrated circuit industry.
Second, due to the surplus of chips, the production rate of chips in various countries is bound to slow down or even stagnate; Once the Chinese side realizes that lithography machines are difficult to buy, lithography machine manufacturers must seek more production capacity from more chip industries in China to purchase lithography machines; South Korea's Samsung has the opportunity to leap forward, which must be a phenomenon of reverse circulation expansion, and this phenomenon is likely to be the vane of China's integrated circuit industry.
It can be said that the excessive supply of chips is a huge shock to American chips, but it is good news for Chinese products and Chinese chips.
It can be seen from the LCD industry in 2020 that with the reduction of consumer spending worldwide, the demand for high-end OLED TVs has decreased, while the demand for cheap LCD has risen, which makes Chinese panel manufacturers, such as BOE, surpass South Korea in 2018 and ascend to the throne of the world's largest LCD panel manufacturer.