Reporter Zhang Limin.
2023 is coming to an end, and this year, due to "major changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market", a series of regulatory policies have been introduced to ensure the stable development of the real estate market. Looking ahead to 2024, what new situation will the real estate market usher in?
Huang Yu, executive vice president of the China Index Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the China Economic Times that looking forward to 2024, the recovery of the real estate market still depends on whether home buyers expect to recover, and there is still room for policies at both ends of supply and demand. Overall, the new home sales market will still face adjustment pressure in 2024, and if the economy continues to recover, the willingness to buy homes improves, and the transformation of urban villages is carried out as scheduled, the sales scale may achieve a slight increase.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October this year, China's existing house sales were 2000 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 156%, the performance is significantly better than the off-plan house, in terms of proportion, the proportion of existing home sales area to the total sales area is 215%, an increase of 42 percentage points.
Huang Yu said that from the perspective of policy trends, on the demand side, reducing the cost of buying a house and lowering the threshold for buying a house is still the focus of policy optimization, and the policies of first-tier cities may continue to be optimized in the future, and Beijing and Shanghai are expected to reduce the down payment ratio of second homes, reduce mortgage interest rates, optimize the identification standards of ordinary houses, and reduce transaction taxes and fees. In addition, first-tier cities may also optimize suburban purchase restriction policies according to regional policies; Core second-tier cities are expected to further relax purchase restrictions, and more cities are expected to fully lift purchase restrictions; More low-energy cities may promote the release of housing demand through the issuance of housing purchase subsidies and other means.
In 2024, the national new housing market will still face downward pressure in the short term, and enterprises need to formulate corresponding strategies based on their own conditions to go through the cycle. For the real estate enterprises that are out of insurance, Huang Yu suggested that, on the one hand, with the help of the current financial policy window, actively connect with financial institutions, make full use of debts, and at the same time, actively market and collect money, and make every effort to ensure the delivery of buildings. On the other hand, we should dispose of assets, speed up the clearance, seize the policy opportunities to revitalize the stock, including unsold residential, non-residential, and unstarted land, etc., and actively seek opportunities to revitalize the relevant assets by converting them into rental housing or affordable housing, and bear the corresponding losses for liquidation.
For stable real estate enterprises, Huang Yu suggested, first, actively marketing and quick payment. At present, there is room for further optimization of the policies of core first- and second-tier cities, and enterprises should grasp the market window and actively market. At the same time, we actively cooperate with financial institutions to broaden financing channels and reduce financing costs.
Second, optimize the urban layout and structure, focus on core cities, and maintain a certain scale of land acquisition. At present, the market is still in a period of adjustment, and precise investment is still the most important investment strategy. In addition, the transformation of urban villages may receive more policy and financial support next year, and real estate companies should actively look for opportunities to participate in the transformation of urban villages.
Third, polish the product and grasp the mainstream demand. In the future, good products and services are the key for real estate companies to gain a foothold in the market. There is a lot of room for development in improving demand, and only by grasping the mainstream demand can we better promote the return of sales funds.
Fourth, we should pay equal attention to the importance and actively explore new models of development. Real estate enterprises should actively explore new development models, and there is room for development in agent construction, property services, commercial operations, and long-term rental apartments.