2023 is coming to an end, I don't know if the friends who bought a house at the beginning of the year are okay, the small spring in March made many people climax, but after the climax, there is crying and sadness, now there is no return of funds from real estate companies, individuals do not dare to consume, and the water has been idling in the safe, what will happen next year, and now it is still the new normal of yin and fall. And there may be several big changes in the first half of next year, you can ** it.
First of all, the real estate enterprise side, Evergrande is still in debt of more than 2 trillion yuan, Country Garden is preparing to smash the pot and sell iron to save itself, Vanke was downgraded, and the Fujian real estate company Baolong scored two thunderstorms, everyone has seen that real estate companies do not see too much hope for self-help success now, and they are constantly trying to send ways to return funds, but the actual situation is not easy, and contraction is already a norm. Take Country Garden as an example, before the peak of the property market in 2020, Country Garden had more than 100 areas, because it covered many third- and fourth-tier cities, and the core task at that time was to expand, and from 2022 onwards, it began to shrink, merging 106 regions to 65, continuing to shrink to 29 in March this year, and then merging 14 regions into 7 regions on December 5.
Not only the regional merger, Country Garden's three executive directors have cut their salaries, and another non-executive director has taken the initiative to reduce his salary, and then the monthly salary has become 10,000 yuan, which is the same income as our workers. Not only Country Garden, but also other real estate companies in the industry are also shrinking in the region, because the national layout management radius is too large before, and the pressure of marketing fees has made many real estate companies breathless, so they have adjusted their positions and retreated to more core cities, and the ultimate regional deep cultivation, multiple projects can even share 1 sales office at the same time, and the same sales team can also sell multiple real estate, like China Resources took 8 projects in Chengdu last year, and took land at the same time and entered the market at the same time, which not only amplified the marketing potential of small and medium-sized projects, but also saved a lot of marketing expenses。
This also shows that in the near future, many real estate companies will give up some areas with poor sales, and even after selling the stock of land, they will no longer develop new projects, focus on more core circles and plots, and package marketing is also to reduce their own costs and survive in adversity, so in the future, many developers' houses will become out of print in some places, everyone should pay attention to the fact that many real estate companies are now in the process of digesting the stock of land, but if you want to sell, at present, there is only a price reduction channel, now SuzhouNanjing has gradually opened the door to price limits, and it is believed that more cities will gradually follow up next year, and the exchange of price for volume has become the last straw for the cash flow of real estate companies.
From the owner's point of view, the owners who sold the house this year are very aggrieved, and the listing has been selling, but there is no one to see the house, and there is no one** Just imagine, if the new house is sold at a discount of 6 or even 5 discounts, the surrounding individual second-hand housing will not be directly confused, equivalent to your current salary of 10,000, and then there is a person more powerful than you to tell your company, I only need 6000, hire me, this is a naked forced palace and a slap in the face, then the buyer will definitely go to buy a new house, the price reduction of the second-hand house will be forced to do something, which will also make many owners lose the down payment or even more moneyOf course, there are now state-owned second-hand houses competing with individual owners, why the second-hand houses in November have increased, in fact, this part of the ** in the shipment, we have also analyzed before, the latter state-owned ** shipments will become more and more common, and even become the mainstream of the market.
There are only three ways in front of many old owners, one is to repay the loan in advance to reduce the pressure of monthly payment, and the other is to sell the house at a lower price like state-owned assets, or even reduce it a little more;The last one is to choose to cut off the supply and lie flat. Let's take a look at these three roads, they are all carried out rhythmically, and being able to choose to repay the loan in advance means that the house in your hand has not dropped too much, and you can accept it if you hold it, but you can't accept that the interest rate was too high in the past;
And the second way is that the down payment has been lost, so the 6% discount or 7% discount has been numb, since it has always been a loss, it is better to sell it at a big price as soon as possible, and do not do two endlessly;
The third way is to reduce the price of the big can't do it, but also to collect real estate tax, in addition to the mortgage every month, but also have to pay the holding tax, which will make many people completely give up the house, directly to the bank to lose, next year should be the majority of people still on the first and second road to choose, if really superimposed unemployment may choose the third way. Because the premise of the survival of real estate companies is to sacrifice the interests of many individual owners of second-hand houses, this is a zero-sum game, only you die or I live, if the real estate companies do not reduce the price, they are the ones who die, and the real estate companies have reduced the price, and the pain is the individual owner.
So we have been saying that if you buy a new house now, try not to choose off-plan housing, we all know the situation in recent years, the bottom line has become a guaranteed delivery of the building, even if you can hand over the building even if you have a conscience of the real estate company, what is the quality of it, but also a big question mark, and now the reason to buy off-plan housing is completely gone, and the interest rate will fall, **not afraid of people robbing,** It will not rise sharply, there is no incentive to buy off-plan housing, the house you fancy will wait for it to be built, and it is not too late to start when you are satisfied, and now there are many state-owned second-hand houses and individual second-hand houses waiting to be sold to you, and the buyers are now in the state of God.
Of course, there are still some cities that are still maintaining the operation of the lottery, in fact, it is still creating an atmosphere of scarcity, many Xiaobai is still easy to set, but it is obviously in a state of oversupply, according to the data of the CRI Research Center, from January to November, the investment amount of the top 100 real estate companies fell by 13% year-on-year As of the end of November, there are still nearly half of the top 100 real estate companies in sales have not taken land, and basically state-owned enterprises are taking land, and among the real estate companies with a land amount of more than 10 billion, only three private enterprises are left, and many private enterprises have crossed the river.
Finally, let's talk about buyers, after this year's Xiaoyangchun, everyone's mentality has been relatively peaceful, and there will be no impulse to grab a house as before, because looking at the real estate companies and owners are anxious, and now the least anxious is the person who buys the house, which is also an important reason for the current low transaction volume, so next year for buyers, waiting for the reduction of interest rates, waiting for the price of real estate companies, waiting for the price reduction of the owners, the third-class operation will be the choice of many people next year, and the trend of housing prices in 100 cities has lasted for a period of time in many cities** Increasing everyone's income can fundamentally enhance everyone's confidence, if there is no money, what to spend.