New houses can't be sold, and the demand for buying houses can't be stimulated. There's a pattern that's hot this year, and that's thatMany cities are starting to follow the "trade-in". Trade-in means that buyers can lock in the new house first, and then sell the old house by the intermediary, or the real estate company or a third party directly collects the old house, opening up the process of buying and selling the house. It's not a new policy, it's been there for the first two years, it's just that more and more cities are following up this year:
Qingdao, Jinan, Xuzhou, Nanjing, Nantong, Zibo, Tai'an, Yangzhou, Suzhou Taicang, Lianyungang, Jiaxing Haining, Ningbo, Lishui, Shaoxing Yuecheng, Yancheng and Yulin.The "trade-in" practices of these cities can be broadly divided into two categories:One is the form of developers, intermediaries, and buyers, where the buyer first pays the new house intention money to lock in the new house, and then the intermediary sells the old house in the buyer's hand, and the old house is not sold within the specified time, and the new house intention money paid in advance can be refunded.
Typical representative cities such as Yangzhou, Nanjing, Yulin, Zibo, etc. Some of these cities will also give subsidies at the same time, but the subsidies are not very much, a new house of 2 million yuan in Nanjing, "sell the old and buy the new" can also make up 10,000 yuan. The other type is that the old house is directly collected by the real estate enterprise and the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, and the buyer does not have to wait, and can directly complete the replacement with the house payment. Typical representative cities such as Xuzhou, Suzhou and Taicang. Xuzhou part of the spontaneous organization of housing enterprisesThe house is received by a third-party appraisal company, and the buyer wants to buy the real estate company for sale after getting the house payment. The house received by the real estate company will be sold on the market through an intermediary. Suzhou Taicang is a state-owned company directly off the marketBuyers are required to purchase a new house designated by the state-owned company. The houses received by the SASAC are mainly used for the transformation of old houses into affordable housing.
Whether it is the joint buying and selling model of developers, real estate companies and buyers, or the housing enterprises leading the collection, they have not actually solved the fundamental problem of "second-hand housing is difficult to sell". The only hope to save the property market in various places is the state-owned assets in Taicang, Suzhou. The reason is very simple, what the "trade-in" wants to activate is to hold the improvement demand of the old house, if the house can be sold, then these needs may have already entered the property market. Now that the card is here, the replacement chain has not been opened, that is, the house cannot be sold. Now there are houses in various places that cannot be sold, and the reasons are similar, the general environment is up, the demand is weak, but when it comes to the old dilapidated houses, it is even worse, the residential properties are poor, and the impact of this round is no longer willing to look at it. Therefore, this situation cannot be easily solved by signing a service agreement with an intermediary. Those "trade-in" cities that rely on linkage intermediaries, real estate companies, and replacement groups can casually take a look at whether the transaction situation in various places has improved substantially.
At present, it should be very difficult, because the fundamental problem has not been solved, and it is impossible for real estate companies to open up the whole process of buying and selling houses. Just like the economist Wu Xiaoqiu's shouting in recent days to "stimulate domestic demand", he said that there should be no more stimulation of domestic demand, because the common people have no income at all, and their pockets are cleaner than their faces. If the problem of money is not solved, no one rushes into it, whether it is changing houses or spending. But state-owned assets take the lead, and it is different to collect the old dilapidated house, and the replacement group can directly receive the money, and when they get the money, they can buy a house, which is neat. Some people may think, I take the money and don't buy a house, then you may think too much, and this money will definitely become the sales performance of the property market, because the premise of state-owned assets is that you have to buy the house designated by it. In this way, the replacement demand of the property market has moved;At the same time, second-hand listings have decreased, and new home inventory has declined. And for the local, this move is also a lot, otherwise you go to the demolition again, build a house to solve the problem of affordable housing, this process is too long, if you want to build low-rent housing, directly from the second-hand housing market, the easiest.
Since this hand is so perfect, why are some cities still implementing the "intermediary sales" trade-in model?The property market policy in various places is often that you learn from me, I learn from you, and it is estimated that many cities have seen the trick of "state-owned assets to collect houses", and it may be difficult to follow up on "money". In the first 10 months of this year, the country's land sales income was only 52% of last year's whole year, and the top 10 cities in the first half of the year were also first-tier and strong second-tier cities.
It costs money to buy a house, and now there is no money in many places, not to mention squeezing out more surplus grain to support the real estate market. Whether the city of "state-owned assets to collect housing" can be launched in 2024 depends on whether the special funds can be put in place.
Next year's old city renovation model, whether to continue to use the 2015 large-scale monetization shed reform model, or through the state-owned housing collection model, everyone directly sell second-hand houses to buy new houses, the old for the new, is still uncertain.