The fertility rate in our country has dropped sharply, and the disadvantages will appear in 5 years!
As we all know, our country has been the most populous country in the world for many years, and a population of more than 1.4 billion people keeps our economy strong and dynamic. However, in recent years, the number of newborns in our country has dropped dramatically. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from 2017 to 2022, the number of births in China will decrease by 630,000, 2 million, 580,000, 2.63 million, 1.4 million and 1.06 million respectively compared with the previous year, which is undoubtedly a very alarming decline.
It is worth mentioning that the direct decline in the number of newborns in the country is not the worst thing, the problem is that the total fertility rate in the country has dropped significantly compared to before.
According to a paper presented by demographers from the Chinese Population and Development Research Center (CPDRC) at the 2023 annual meeting of the Chinese Population Society, China's total fertility rate is tentatively estimated to fall to 1 in 202209, which is a very low fertility rate in the world, even lower than South Korea and Japan, which have low fertility rates.
To explain briefly, the total fertility rate has dropped to 109, which means that on average there will be only one child per couple, so our population will not be able to reach the normal replacement level, and will naturally be less and less.
And according to demographic experts, by 2050, the population of our country will increase from 14100 million reduced to 13600 million, and the elderly population will make up one-third of the total population. This demographic crisis will not only affect our quality of life, but also pose a threat to our social stability.
In fact, you don't have to wait until 2050, five years from now, the inconvenience caused by the sharp decline in the number of newborns will be apparent, so be prepared in advance!
The first disadvantage: the industry is more endogenous.
As we all know, in recent years, many industries in China have begun to fall into"Internal competition"The labor cost of enterprises is also rising. As our country's population decreases, the labor force will become more and more valuable, and economic development may also stagnate due to the declining population, which will have a profound impact on all walks of life.
For example, the midwifery departments of many hospitals are now closed, and some kindergartens are also in a business crisis because they cannot recruit students, and the relevant midwifery and kindergarten teachers are forced to change careers.
The second drawback: the economic downturn.
The Faculty of Social Sciences noted"Population is the foundation of social and economic development and a strategic element that has a bearing on the overall situation. However, the continuous decline in the birth rate of the whole country will undoubtedly affect the development of the entire social economy. "In fact, no matter what era it is, population is the main driving force of economic growth, because the whole process of children from birth, from pregnancy to growth and education, and finally marriage and childbirth, will bring a steady stream of consumption to society.
However, if the population continues to decline, economic development will be limited, which is very likely to happen.
The third disadvantage: the burden of old-age pension increases, and the social security system is under pressure.
Data shows that by 2022, China's elderly population aged 65 and above will reach 2100 million people, if the number of newborns continues to decline in the next few years, it is bound to intensify the proportion of aging in China, and the pressure on families and society to support them will also increase.
In short, the decline in the number of newborns will lead to a series of problems, including industrial implosion, economic recession, and increased pressure for social reform. In order to fundamentally solve this problem, it is necessary to find ways to reduce the cost of raising children, and at the same time give them more social security, such as education and medical care, so as to effectively reduce the burden on young people's families and promote the development of motherhood.
I wonder what you guys think about that