From next year, the asset bubble bursts and prepares for war!The trend of the property market is gradually clear, and investors are alert!
China's property bubble has reached an alarming level, housing prices have begun to fall, and the phenomenon of rational home buying has intensified. Sheng Songcheng, an adviser to the central bank, said that the adjustment of the property market is at an inflection point, and people are gradually calming down on home purchases. In this context, a series of measures have been introduced, the most important of which is the "Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of Affordable Housing" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of Affordable Housing"."Document 14"), with plans to bring 6 million affordable homes to the market over the next five years. It is impossible for this plan not to have an impact on the structure of the market.
The phenomenon of the property bubble can be attributed to the rapid development of China's economy. With the continuous growth of the economy and the acceleration of the urbanization process, problems such as insufficient land, speculation and disorderly development have gradually emerged. The gap between housing prices and income is too large, and ordinary residents can hardly afford high housing prices, and the housing problem has become a social pain point.
Member Sheng Songcheng's speech means that the property market bubble has reached a level that cannot be ignored. The property market bubble has existed for a long time, and relevant policy control measures have guided market stability and prevented and controlled risks to a certain extent. However, with the gradual relaxation of property market regulation, housing prices began to fall. Buyers began to treat the property market rationally, no longer blindly chasing the rise, but paying more attention to the actual value and allocation of the property.
The issuance of Document No. 14 is significant as it is a guiding document for the construction of affordable housing in the next five years. The document clearly proposes to put 6 million units of affordable housing on the market to solve the problem of residents' housing difficulties. The construction of affordable housing is the central work of the party and an important aspect of the country's economy and people's livelihood. Through the large-scale development of affordable housing, housing will be provided at a lower level to meet people's basic housing needs, promote housing consumption, and resolve the real estate market bubble.
However, the launch of 6 million affordable housing units is bound to have an impact on the market structure. Affordable housing is for low- and middle-income groups, which is different from ordinary commercial housing, which is more close to the people and more in line with the actual housing needs of residents. This will directly affect the sales of ordinary commercial housing and pull down housing prices. Real estate companies in the market will also face the pressure of adjustment and transformation, and have to seek a more diversified development model.
In addition to the introduction of social housing, the disappearance of the demographic dividend, the lack of marriage and childbearing among young people, and the intensification of aging will also have a significant impact on the real estate market. The demographic dividend is gradually disappearing, and the population structure is beginning to tilt towards aging. The phenomenon of young people marrying and having children later has also led to smaller family sizes and a corresponding decrease in the demand for real estate. As a result of these factors, the real estate market has lost its traditional upward momentum, and recovery has become increasingly difficult.
In short, the bubble in China's real estate market is becoming more and more obvious, housing prices have begun to fall, and the phenomenon of rationalization of house buying has intensified. Document No. 14 released, 6 million affordable housing units will enter the market in the next five years, which will have an impact on the market structure. At the same time, the disappearance of the demographic dividend, the lack of marriage and childbirth among young people, and the aging of the population will also make the real estate market lose its upward momentum. At the time of adjustment and turning of the property market, the first and relevant departments should actively guide the market to stability, prevent and control risks, and provide residents with a good living environment.