The conflict between Russia, Ukraine and Pakistan is becoming increasingly tense, and Israel has also joined the competition for Ukraine's "US-Western resources" and "US-Western concerns".
1. Poland's political situation is turbulent, and the new prime minister comes to power, or he will be more supportive of Ukraine On November 13, the new Polish parliament opened, and Prime Minister Morawiecki led ** to resign in accordance with the provisions of the constitution, and accepted **Duda's appointment to re-form the government. He comes from the ruling Law and Justice party, which has always held a parliamentary majority, but the opposition coalition sees this as disrespectful to Polish voters.
This is the beginning of the political game in Poland!
On December 12, at the same time that Biden invited Zelensky to visit the White House, according to the Russian Sputnik news agency, the Polish parliament did not believe in Morawiecki's vote and elected opposition leader Donald Tusk as the new prime minister.
This is a new result of the political game in Poland, a new change in the situation in Poland - if Tusk can pass the vote of confidence, he will be sworn in on the morning of the 13th.
Poland has always had a strong impression that, due to historical and practical reasons, Poland wants to recapture the Uzsi region that historically belongs to itself, so it is also caught in the ** vortex of the merger of Poland and Ukraine or Poland's entry into the war.
After the outbreak of the war, Poland sent a large number of mercenaries to Ukraine. But their purpose does not seem so simple.
Tusk has already submitted his policy plan to the Polish Chamber of Deputies and expressed his ambition: Poland will become a significant member of NATO, a staunch ally of the United States, and play a leading role on the European continent.
At the same time, he also made public his views on the conflict in Ukraine for the first time - "We will ask the West to fully support Ukraine, and I don't want to hear politicians complain about the fatigue of the war in Ukraine." They said to Zelensky ** that they are tired of the situation, but to attack Ukraine is to attack all of us. ”
Obviously, what he means is that he will push Europe to support Ukraine, mainly through diplomatic, economic and ** means.
This is not yet the most desirable support for Ukraine, but overall good news.
Of course, it is also possible to be overly optimistic. Because a few months ago, the ruling party in Poland accused Tusk of being the mouthpiece of Germany and Russia. However, in the eyes of the outside world, compared with the extreme anti-Russian position of the Law and Justice Party, the Civic Platform Party has a more pragmatic stance and advocates a pragmatic approach to relations with Russia.
On the whole, with the tough rhetoric of the United States ** Biden in recent days - "Russia is not satisfied with defeating Ukraine, but will also attack a certain NATO country", "If we abandon the cause of freedom in Ukraine, history will judge us harshly." We can't let Putin win".
It can be considered that Morawiecki's announcement of the suspension of military aid to Ukraine due to the problem of agricultural products, and Duda's comparison of Ukraine to "a drowning man who wants to pull people on the shore into the water" - led to a sharp deterioration in Polish-Ukrainian relations, which is expected to be quickly repaired and warmed up!
Of course, the intensification of the political game in Poland is not all good for the United States and the West.
Because, this could mean the trend of the opposition in Europe coming to power - Italy, Slovakia, the Netherlands, so which European country will be next?
2. The rise of the German right, if Germany changes its stance on the conflict in Ukraine, it will trigger a global upheaval Some argue that in the political context of the West, the rise of right-wing trends reflects people's feelings of material deprivation and existential threats. As a result, right-wing parties become more popular whenever the economy declines.
From this point of view, the rise of the opposition in Italy, Slovakia and the Netherlands is clearly in line with this logic.
So, who will be next?
At the moment, the answer may be difficult to be exact**, but one thing is for sure, once the German right wing comes to power, then the whole of Europe will change dramatically - because although the German economy has been weak in the past few days due to the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is still the undisputed economic power of the European Union and the economic leader of the whole of Europe.
In July 2023, the far-right AfD party rose to become the second largest party in the country in July polls, and its core propositions include: demanding a thorough investigation of the Nord Stream truth, refusing to aid Ukraine, and advocating the resumption of economic cooperation with Russia...
This gave Scholz a great headache....
And that's just the beginning.
In fact, just today, according to foreign media reports, German multinational companies demanded compensation from Germany for the economic losses caused by leaving the Russian market, including Volkswagen, Siemens, Braun and other companies that were forced to leave Russia, and now demand compensation from the German Federal Union.
At the same time, the German ** "Focus" magazine wrote an article today, lamenting that the lack of realistic assessment of Germany's capabilities by the Green Party has led to a difficult economy and a budget dilemma for the traffic light....
The report notes that now, Germany is facing a serious problem of Ukrainian refugees. Refugees from Ukraine are reluctant to work, even though Germany** urges employers to lower their German language requirements.
Currently, only 20% of Ukrainian refugees have jobs in Germany, and the rest live on welfare, which places a heavy burden on the state budget.
The Germans tried to solve the problem by sacrificing their own national interests and destroying their own cultural and civilizational ecosystems, but in doing so it did little to no avail.
Due to its immigration policy, Berlin is unable to deport immigrants. And in the event of a recession and a low budget, Germany will have to cut spending, so the key question now is who will be hit - unemployed Ukrainian refugees or ordinary Germans?
Clearly, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine intensifies, the German public is likely to reflect more and more on Germany's foreign policy – and repairing relations with Russia may be the most important step.
Of course, these changes don't happen overnight.
3. Zelensky made public for the first time the number of Ukrainian troops - about 600,000 On December 12, Zelensky said that the number of Ukrainian troops is now about 600,000. This figure is the sum of military personnel of different types of troops.
In addition, as of now, 62,000 women are serving in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a 50% increase from the pre-war period.
Some analysts believe that the strength of the Ukrainian army is too small to support it until the year after next. Unless American or Polish troops join the battlefield.
What's more, on July 10, 2022, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rezniko revealed to The Times that Ukraine is assembling a combat force of more than 1 million people equipped with Western ** in order to reclaim southern territories from Russia. [The recovery of Crimea should be the propaganda slogan of the Ukrainian authorities during this time].
Subsequently, at the end of September, European parliamentarians asked NATO secretaries in person: 500,000 Ukrainian troops have died, what is the result?It's time for peace talks.
So, taken together, the Ukrainian army now has only 600,000 men – probably about 1 million killed and wounded ......
Since June 4**, the Russian side claims that the Ukrainian army has lost about 1250,000 people.
Conclusion In short, there have been new changes in the situation, but the specific direction is still unclear.
But I believe that in the coming week, we may be able to see the clues. At that time, the position of the new Polish chancellor, Germany and Ukraine on the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks will be clearer.