The direction of the 2024 market is required, and I am afraid that it will start from the last limit in 2023.
On the last trading day of 2023, Industrial Bank, which has a market value of 300 billion yuan, was "pulled by a storm" at the last second and was firmly sealed (below).
This trading behavior really shook the market.
In terms of transactions, IB traded 2$1.6 billion. In terms of market value growth, the market value of IB increased by 30 billion yuan at the last moment
So much so that some investors sighed, went to the toilet, and came back.
There was also a "surprise" for investors: the last minute of the annual earnings "turned into a profit".
For a while, there were speculations about the "authors" of this "price limit":
Is it a "large central enterprise" sweeping**?Industrial Bank or related persons "increase holdings".Public and private placements** last minute to raise annual resultsOr is it an oolong finger?Or is it the follow-up that IB and even the banking sector have a big benefit and are "learned" by insiders?Other reasons?
It's hard to tell.
And with the "preliminary" vague information announced by the Shanghai Stock Exchange on the evening of the 29th,The "inside" of the last limit in 2023 seems to be gradually emerging.
To analyze who pulled this board, we must first observe the entire process of the Industrial Bank's daily limit.
Speaking of which, this limit is quite "reckless".
Statistics show that on December 29, there was an abnormal movement during the call auction at the end of the day of the Industrial Bank, and the transaction price of the stock at the end of the day reached the price limit (+9.).97%), compared to the stock's gain of just 027%。
The stock traded a total of 133082 lots in the last second of the day (i.e., the final call auction), with a turnover of 2$1.6 billion.
There is no doubt that this is a "trading behavior" that simply relies on a huge buy order to stop **, and only from the perspective of the order strategy, the trading method is quite "simple", "direct" - and even "rough".
At the same time as the stock rose to the limit, most of the remaining bank stocks in the A-share market did not move significantly during the same period.
In addition, the banking sector of the Hong Kong ** market, which was still trading on the same day, did not move, and the related bank stocks were stable.
In addition, during the New Year's Day holiday, there was no "hidden benefit" of IB.
The above situation can basically confirm that the ** of the stock can have excluded the fundamental factor.
In addition, on the night of the daily limit, IB issued the "Explanation on Stock Price Fluctuations".
The statement said: "Industrial Bank shares are concerned about the daily limit of the company's A shares on December 29, 2023, and the stock price has risen significantly. After self-inspection and verification, the company's business situation is normal, there are no major changes in the internal and external business environment, and there are no major matters that should be disclosed but have not been disclosed. ”
Related announcements,It not only excludes possible information at the bank's operational level, but also clarifies that the company "does not have any material matters that should be disclosed but has not been disclosed", and in fact also excludes the possibility of potential event opportunities such as mergers and acquisitions, new business start-ups, etc.
In the above case,It is also impossible for the bank to "self-purchase" or "increase the shareholding of major shareholders".
To some extent, the limit has been attributed to investors in the secondary market.
The above-mentioned trading behaviors,Speculation from the "individual" in the secondary market, which was further confirmed after the announcement of the exchange.
Carefully looking back at the notice of the Shanghai Stock Exchange on the evening of the 29th, it can be found that the Shanghai Stock Exchange said:
After preliminary verification, it was caused by an investor's large declaration of transaction with a significant deviation from the latest transaction price. The SSE will conduct further in-depth verification of the relevant situation and take corresponding measures based on the verification results.
The above situation reveals several important clues:
This trading behavior is the individual behavior of an investor (individual or institution), and there is no "dream linkage" of multiple investors. The exchange determined that the investor was "caused by a large declaration of transaction that deviated from the latest transaction price". This sentence has faintly highlighted the "abnormal" characteristics of the trading behavior. The wording that the exchange will "conduct further in-depth verification of the relevant situation and take corresponding measures based on the results of the verification" also hints at taking measures after further investigation. Based on the above clues, it can be judged that the daily limit of IB on the last trading day of 2023 should be the sole action of professional institutions or professional individual investors who are familiar with market rules.
These investors should be able to rule out the possibility of "state-owned institutions" with "important missions", which have relatively strict compliance requirements and have recently made it clear that increasing their holdings in ETFs is the main means.
The above-mentioned investors can also basically rule out the possibility of "public" products, which have clear trading compliance requirements and are less likely to affect call auctions at the last minute.
In addition, the investors involved in the transaction are quite familiar with the trading rules, which leads to the fact that it chooses the call auction stage that can quickly pull up the ** to place orders.
However, it obviously underestimated the speed and attitude of the regulatory authorities, and this "professional and unprofessional" performance also allowed the outside world to almost lock down their identities.