According to data released by the Bureau of Statistics (December 1), Canada's unemployment rate rose to 5 in November last month8% because high interest rates have affected job creation at a time when the country's population is growing rapidly. Experts are ordinary** that the central bank will not raise interest rates next Wednesday, and in April 2024 they will start cutting them.
Statistics Canada released data from the November Labour Force Survey on Friday, which showed a modest increase of 25,000 jobs, slightly higher than expected.
Manufacturing and construction saw the largest job increases, while wholesale and retail, finance, insurance, real estate, and leasing saw the largest job declines.
The Bureau of Statistics announced the unemployment rate in November at 58%, compared with October (57%) compared to the continued increase.
Since the labour market emerged from the pandemic**, the unemployment rate has been trending upwards since April as signs of weakness in the Canadian economy become more apparent.
Real GDP (a measure of the size of the economy) has struggled to grow sustainably over the past year. The latest GDP report showed that the economy contracted by 11%。
Benjamin Reitzes, macro strategist at BMO Bank, wrote in a client note: "The data partly echoes yesterday's GDP report, the Canadian economy is stagnating, but the marked weakness in the labour market is consistent with continued weak growth. ”
While headline (employment) growth is better than expected, the continued rise in the unemployment rate is more important and may be a better reflection of the state of the economy. ”
Canada's unemployment rate is currently hovering around pre-pandemic levels, but is expected to continue to rise as rising borrowing rates weigh on businesses.
A weaker job market also means more workers are losing their jobs due to layoffs.
Friday's report said those who lost their jobs were more likely to be laid off last month than they were a year ago.
However, despite these trends, average hourly earnings continue to grow rapidly, with Canadian worker pay up 48% as workers seek compensation for the recent rise in inflation.
The central bank's overnight policy rate is currently at 5%, the highest level since 2001.
The Bank of Canada is scheduled to announce its next interest rate decision next Wednesday (December 6), and market leaders generally believe that the central bank has completed raising interest rates, and interest rates are expected to remain unchanged at 5% next week.
According to Bloomberg, James Orlando, a director at TD Economics, said in a note on Thursday that "there is no reason for the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates again."
We expect economic growth to remain below trend in the coming months, which will push inflation closer to the 2% target. This will give the Bank of Canada a few months to start preparing for the market to cut rates, which we expect to start in April 2024," he said.
Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Bank Capital Markets, wrote in a note on Thursday that third-quarter GDP data "won't help" change the BoC's confidence in its projected timeline.
Discussions about potential interest rate cuts have become meaningful as the economy contracted more than expected in the third quarter, RSM Canada economist Tu Nguyen said in a note on Thursday. 
"The Bank of Canada is likely to announce its first rate cut in April 2024 to avoid a recession that goes beyond what is needed," Nguyen said. ”
Nguyen said in a note on Friday that weak third-quarter GDP data, coupled with November's jobs report, should shift the central bank's focus from raising interest rates to cutting interest rates, provided inflation is "under control."
Nguyen said that the unemployment rate has been trending upwards since April this year, and the period of "data painting a mixed picture" appears to be coming to an end, as most economic data is currently pointing to a slowdown.
Looking ahead, the economy is likely to still add jobs, but unemployment will rise to a low of 6% by early 2024 as population growth outpaces job growth. Recruitment will be slow until mid-2024 as businesses postpone investments and deal with a more challenging economic environment," Nguyen said.