Finally, the most passionate week in December has passed, and I don't know if there will be black swans in the future. But since December, most of the trading days in the market have been like a catastrophe. Here's a review of last Friday's live broadcast of non-farm payrolls, and my change in thinking. Let's take a look at the transactions of account number 3 and account 5 accordingly.
First of all, let's talk about my personal opinion on the non-farm payrolls data last Friday, judging from the data that has been released by the market, my judgment on the job market is that there will be signs of recession. But apparently contrary to the data we have already published, the US labor market data is very bearish** and shows the vitality of the labor market.
This is diametrically opposed, but of course we must respect the facts of the data first. At that time, I was live broadcasting, and after seeing the data release value, I knew that the first wave of layout must have stopped loss. But Friday, before the data is released, is all above 2027. Therefore, combined with the ** reflection given by the market after the release of the data, after participating in long orders in 2018 to recover this wave of losses, he chose to close his position near 2025 and leave the market, and informed everyone that in 2026, you can short the trading opportunity of stop loss 2031.
The reason for the hasty adjustment of thinking is mainly due to unexpected data from the labor market. The market's anticipation of a labor market recession is clearly a big disappointment. Hence the frustration in the market outlook and the sell-off sentiment for **. Coupled with the weakening of interest rate cut expectations after the Fed stopped raising interest rates. It will cause a strong sell-off, which is why I have to adjust my trading thinking.
The current situation of account No. 3 is still unclear, and Sister L may not have seen my message. The main reason is that I didn't have enough time to update you last week, so I can only borrow the transaction records on December 7 to share my experience with you.
Sister L of the third account is a little anxious in the next transaction, and this mentality will appear in any of our traders. That is, after a short-term rollover, the impact of such a quick profit will stimulate emotions. I will feel that it is too easy and too simple to make money in the market. The main thing is that after the rollover and withdrawal, the rest is profit. In trading, you will inevitably feel: you can't lose the principal anyway, so you can do it boldly. It is this kind of mentality that will lead to impatience in trading, and see any ** feel that there is a trading opportunity. Then frequent participation leads to magnified losses.
There are too many such situations, whether they are novices or old leeks. will have such a mentality, how to adjust must be faced with a flat mentality. Losses and profits are normal, and the risks of the market should not be ignored just because of profits. Be in awe of the market at all times. The so-called madness in the sky will have rain, and madness in people will have disasters. It's the same with trading, you can't and shouldn't indulge yourself at any time.
Of course, people can't teach people, but things can be taught once. Let's talk about one experience that most people have experienced, and don't ask me why I know it so clearly, it's because I've experienced it before. After the rollover, you start to trade boldly, and the result of frequent opening of positions is that you lose profits. At this time, the mentality is impetuous, and I will think that I can turn over the position before, and I will definitely be able to do it later. began to invest the principal to enter the transaction, although it was said that nothing was dusty, but the profits that I once had, I always couldn't calm my heart for a long time. I always want to make back the profits I lost as soon as possible.
In terms of operation, there must be no way to compare it with when they first entered the market, so most people will not calm down at this time and reflect on the reasons why they have lost profits. The understanding of oneself is still insufficient, and most people will basically lose their principal after continuing to trade. Then you will be more anxious mentally, until the time when the losing money starts to affect your life. You'll wake up and think that this market can't make money at all.
Then at this time, you wake up and start to compare yourself with why you can earn at the beginning, and how you can make it later. Some people will sum up the difference and trade patiently, and then achieve a profit after landing. The whole process is over, and the follow-up is relatively peaceful in the face of losses and profits. We will always be in awe of the market, especially the risks.
Others either left the market or continued to lose money to the point where they had to leave the market. That's basically such a process. Therefore, the summary and advice for account No. 3 is: stabilize and avoid opening positions frequently. Don't think about making it back in the short term, of course, there is still a profit at the moment and the yield is the highest. But I hope to pay attention to it, and I basically mentioned several consequences in the article. I still hope to be able to help Sister L, the No. 3 investor.
This is my record of clear orders so far in December, because the non-agricultural is live broadcasting, I have not been able to send the list to the real group. Therefore, the trading of the non-agricultural market on the day is not included in the statistics.
Account No. 5 is, in general, an independent investment trader. So far, the order I gave should only be a long order last night. This trading style is actually quite pertinent, because he does put the position on the right foot. I'm just a character who provides trading advice for reference, and he does have a strong ability to think and summarize.
He will refer to the suggested trading based on his actual situation and his own judgment, such as last Friday's non-agricultural he chose to wait and see, because ** did not reach the ideal position in his heart. I'm still in favor of this way of trading. I'm not going to get angry at him for being disobedient. Because it is a manifestation of mutual progress based on mutual discussion.
In the few chats with him, it is clear that he looks at the market through his own thinking and participates in market transactions according to his own cognition. Summarize yourself when you make mistakes, and continue to experiment with your own trading plan boldly. We chatted before the non-agricultural farm, and he told me that he thought that the gold price would go out of a wave of ** to around 1995, and he wanted to go to *** in this position
And his own planning also clarified his own transaction costs, but it may be because the non-farm data is too intense, and the non-farm market fell to around 1996 and did not fully give him the ideal **, so he did not participate in this wave of bullish trading. Then there was a pending order on Monday.
To sum up: he may continue to lose money in the future, but this will become his tuition for independent thinking. In the future, if this continues, he will definitely become an investor who thinks and analyzes independently. The road may be long, but eventually you will become an experienced investor. What I might be able to do with his guidance is to give some judgment experience and trading basis. Find his own way and method of trading from it.