From October 27,The Kokang Allied Army has launched an offensive against the local forces to this dayThe war in northern Myanmar has a tendency to spread into a civil war throughout Myanmar.
In less than a month, hundreds of thousands of Myanmar ** people have left their homes, and a large number of refugees have poured into the China-Myanmar border, resulting in China having to take over the Yunnan border port to maintain order.
In addition, India** said:India** has been contained for nearly 7 years50,000 Burmese refugees, but about 5,000 illegal border crossers still enter Indian territory.
The war in northern Myanmar has caused as much of a catastrophe as the Gaza Strip. But the attention of the international community has been far from sufficient.
Nevertheless, the spokesman of the UN "Human Rights Office".LawrenceThere is still something to say.
On the one hand, he stressed that the warring forces in Myanmar must treat the prisoners of war who have surrendered humanelyOn the other hand, it is important to urge countries that have influence over all parties in Myanmar to intervene decisively and try to end the crisis as soon as possible.
As soon as this remark came out, the outside world unanimously believed that Lawrence's remark specifically referred to China.
However, China's "concession" to the United Nations has a somewhat "bitter and unspeakable" flavor ......
Myanmar has a population of more than 50 million, but there are as many as 135 ethnic groups, which alone is destined to have many and complex contradictions among the ethnic groups in Myanmar.
Geographically, Myanmar is high in the north and low in the southTwo-thirds of the area is mountainous, and the central plain is occupied by the Burmese, the main ethnic group, and most of the other ethnic groups can only survive in the mountains and forests.
This has also become one of the reasons why the chaos and disputes in Myanmar have been difficult to settle for a long time.
Because the struggle between the parties is sometimes a matter of life and death, there is very little room for mutual compromise and concession.
Another important reason is that Myanmar's industrial development is still lagging behindInability to absorb the problem of domestic labor surplus.
Although after 1988, Myanmar implemented a market economy and maintained an annual GDP growth trend, the disadvantages of industrial backwardness have not been eliminated, and many places still rely on illegal industries to survive.
Over time, drug production and trafficking, telecommunications fraud, and organ trading have become the means of survival of local armed forces.
The cause of the current war in northern Burma was the Kokang Alliance, which was the first to attack under the slogan of "cracking down on wire fraud and rescuing compatriots."
At first, they did help China** and completely eliminated the Ming drug trafficking and wire fraud criminal syndicate in northern Myanmar. But while fighting, the Kokang Allied Army will generalize"Regain lost territory and overthrow the army".slogans were added, and the spearhead was directed at the current Burmese army**.
In addition, the Kokang Alliance has also joined forces from the De'ang National Liberation Army, the Arakan Army, the Kachin Independence Army and other local armed forces.
It can be said thatToday, the offensive targets of the Kokang Allied Army have gradually expanded to include the armed forces of the Shan State and Kachin State in many places in northern Burma.
Not to be outdone, the Burmese army immediately sent more than 100 military vehicles and a number of aircraft to support the local militia.
The situation is like a warlord scuffle, re-dividing the forcesNo one in other countries can judge who is good and who is bad。What's more, although the Burmese army** cannot stop the civil war, it can freely accuse any foreign intervention as tantamount to aggression.
Therefore, no country is willing to forcibly intervene so as not to be left behind.
Even if China and Myanmar have good relations, they dare not guarantee that they will be able to calm down and give in if they raise their arms.
In particular, it is almost impossible for the Burmese army to agree to the Kokang Alliance's demand to "recover lost territory and overthrow the army"!
Even under external pressure, the Burmese army is willing to make concessions to the Kokang Alliance's demand for "reconquest of lost territory".
So,This is the case with other armed forces, also took the opportunity to put forward the same "lost territory" demand, how will the Myanmar army deal with it?
Therefore, this war is not only related to the redivision of forces in northern Myanmar, but also related to the qualifications and ability of the Myanmar army to govern.
Foreign intervention is like a military coup d'état for the Myanmar military, which is bound to resist to the end by all means.
China, which has always adhered to the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, will inevitably choose to sit on the sidelines, and at best, it will only issue peace appeals and humanitarian assistance, and adopt deterrence Xi exercises on its borders to prevent the war from escalating again.
Some people may ask why the United States, which has always liked to meddle in the internal affairs of other countries, has rarely made any movement this time
The reasons for this are twofold:
On the one hand, the Russia-Ukraine war and the Kazakh-Israeli conflict have dragged the attention of the United States, leaving him with no time to worry about other things for the time being.
On the other hand, the United States itself is extremely dissatisfied with the current Burmese army**, and prefers the democracy ** formed by Aung San Suu Kyi.
Today's military operations of the Kokang Allied Forces seem to be more popular with the United States, and it is simply impossible to withdraw without covert help.
Back in 1948, shortly after Burma declared independence from the British CommonwealthThe United States imposed an embargo on Myanmar, stopped all international aid, and strictly prohibited American businessmen from investing in Myanmar.
The main reason for this state of affairs is that of Myanmar"Use the army to protect the poison and use the poison to feed the army"The local armed forces, as well as the corruption and incompetence of the Burmese army**, make Americans very unoptimistic about the prospects here.
Until 2015,Myanmar holds national democratic electionsAung San Suu KyiThe Democratic Alliance led by him won a landslide victory and formed a democracy**.
The following year, the United States decided to lift economic sanctions on Myanmar, and other developed countries followed suit to ease sanctions further.
But what the United States did not expect was thatThe military's real power faction led by Min Aung HlaingIn fact, Aung San Suu Kyi's ruling power has always been hollowed out.
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's policies have not been implemented at all, and there has been no substantial progress in the democratization process in Myanmar.
The good times of the United States and Myanmar are also destined to not last.
Sure enough, when it was time to win re-election in 2021, when the NLD was about to win re-election, Min Aung Hlaing suddenly launched a military coup on the grounds of fraudDirectly detained the then Myanmar ** Win Myint and State-owned State Administration Aung San Suu Kyito regain power.
After all, the surging public opinion could not match the hegemony of guns, and the democratization process, which had only been five years, was aborted in an instant, and Myanmar returned to the state of "military rule" in power.
The chaos in northern Myanmar also lost time to correct in time because of this abortion. At the same time, the demands of all ethnic groups are so strongly suppressed by the militaryOnce again, they returned to the state of secession in which the mountain was the king and each was in its own way.
Min Aung Hlaing's army has turned a historical reversal, which has not only once again dragged Myanmar into a historical whirlpool of poverty and backwardness, but also completely annoyed the West, led by the United States.
Since then,The United States began to impose strict bans and severe charges against several representatives of the Burmese military, including Min Aung Hlaing, including restricting their entry to the United States and accusing them of participating in genocide.
Therefore, this war in northern Myanmar,It is not surprising that the United States is watching from the sidelines!
In addition to China and the United States, India is the other person who can speak in MyanmarBut the relationship between India and Myanmar is extremely delicate and carries great risks.
As a result, India is very cautious in dealing with issues related to Myanmar, and the slightest mistake will not only fail to help extinguish the fire, but may also trigger a new conflict.
Historically, India and Burma were both British coloniesHowever, the relationship between the two countries has always been one of face to face and heart discord。Moreover, India tried to invite Myanmar to join the Indian state a year before its independence, but the Burmese sternly refused.
The Burmese value their sovereignty and do not want to become vassals of India. Moreover, Myanmar, as a Buddhist country, is very unaccustomed to India's efforts to promote Hinduism and reject Buddhism.
Plus,There is a 1,643-kilometre border between India and MyanmarDisputes over land ownership will inevitably arise, and some areas are still unclear.
For example, in 2014A Burmese army crossed the border into the Manipur region of India, causing India to be **serious**.
In the same year, as if in retaliation, an Indian army also crossed the border into the Naga Mountains of Myanmar to carry out military operations, which made the Myanmar army ** quite angry.
Actually, it's not just this yearSince the establishment of the state of the country of India and Myanmar respectivelyThe friction between the border garrisons of the two countries has never been interrupted for decades.
Fortunately, the military personnel on both sides have always maintained a certain degree of restraint and proportion, so as not to escalate into a diplomatic dispute or military conflict between the two countries.
In short, Myanmar, which is relatively weak, is always wary of India, which has always regarded itself as the largest country in South Asia and has the ambition to become the king and hegemon.
Therefore, in the war in northern Myanmar this time,India, on the contrary, is the least likely country to intervene!
Even though India is now under tremendous pressure from the massive influx of refugees, the response is limited to efforts to establish effective contacts and contacts with all parties in Myanmar to negotiate ways to stabilize the situation.
However, the most pressing question for India now is how to resettle the Burmese refugees, who are growing every day
Where will the needed humanitarian aid come from?How to manage the ...... of so many Burmese people entering the country
These are the conundrum that confront India.
As for how to solve the war in northern Burma?Is there any way to stabilize the situation in Myanmar?？India probably hasn't had time to think about it carefully.
Some international experts have suggested that if the crisis in Myanmar is to be properly resolved as soon as possible, at least the full cooperation of China, India, and Thailand is needed.
But judging from the current situation,Thailand has neither the power nor the heart to do so.
China and India, on the other hand, are going their separate ways and show no signs of cooperation. So much so that some people feel that China and India seem to be deliberately avoiding contact with each other!
Could it be that both China and India see each other as rivals for "Burmese influence"?
Judging from Myanmar's own situation and the reaction of neighboring countries, it is not appropriate for China to directly intervene in the war in northern Myanmar at this time, as the United Nations has said.
However, northern Myanmar shares a border with China after allMany Chinese are victims of the North Myanmar wire fraud syndicate, plus most of the members of the Kokang Alliance are of Chinese descent.
It is obviously very inappropriate for China to do nothing, blindly sit on the sidelines, and wait for the situation to deteriorate.
At the same time, China is well aware that as a border country, it is difficult for one side to be immune to war on the other, so it will adjust its deployment accordingly according to the development of the war.
By mid-November, the Kokang Allied Army had seized more than 100 military bases and several towns in northern Burma, while the Burmese Army's ** troops had used a large number of advanced combat equipmentHowever, they have still not been able to recapture any of the previously lost bases from the other side.
Since the incident, hundreds of refugees have fled to China's border cities, which has had a negative impact on the stability of China's neighboring countries.
The head of the Chinese public security and *** have also contacted the Myanmar Army on several occasions with the intention of brokering ceasefire negotiations between the two warring parties. But the Burmese army ** doesn't know what to doAlluding to China's interference in Myanmar's internal affairs, it provided ** assistance to the Kokang Allied Army.
On November 23, a major incident occurred at the Mujie Port in the Golden Triangle on the China-Myanmar border, affecting 120 Chinese freight trucks, but fortunately there were no personnel**.
On November 24, China issued an urgent reminderInform the Chinese in the Lao Cai area of northern Myanmar to evacuate quickly.
On November 25, the Chinese side released information that the Southern Theater of the People's Liberation Army will conduct actual combat Xi on the Chinese side of the China-Myanmar border from the 25th to the 28th.
It can be seen that all of China's activities are within the scope of its own country.
As long as its sovereignty is not violated, China will never rashly use force against any country.
Unfortunately, there are still too few countries that understand this.
They are always afraid of China's development and strengthI always think that the Chinese will bully like them。In fact, compared with the hegemony of the United States and the ambitions of India, China follows more of a golden mean when dealing with its neighbors.
The position is impartial to any party and the conduct does not deviate from the internationally recognized norms.
The Burmese army has the selfish desire to take power by force, guessing that China upholds the principle of just diplomacy, naturally, many misunderstandings arise.
However, regardless of whether the Myanmar military misunderstands or not, once it regards China as an enemy, China will also speak on its own strength.
A truly confident major country will not be brave enough to speak out, but will directly show sufficient deterrence to the other side.
I hope that this deterrent effect will make the Burmese army understand that since it does not want other countries to interfere in Myanmar's internal affairs, it must control the war in Myanmar!
It is undoubtedly Myanmar itself that has caused the poverty, backwardness, and chaos in Myanmar!
If a country's ** does not care for a long time the places within its jurisdiction that make a living from criminal activities and accumulate wealth through illegal industries, it will even secretly support and share the spoils behind its back.
Then, this ** will inevitably affect the entire country and become a cancer of world civilization, not only poisoning itself, but also leaving a legacy to other countries.
And all the members of this ** will also become bandits that everyone shouts and dislikes, and it is impossible for them to stay in a high position for a long time.
This is also in line with an old Chinese saying - long-term peace and stability lie in morality, and morality and politics do not cultivate people and make enemies!