Have you eaten it?As a mantra for Chinese people to meet every day, it is often used by foreign scholars of Han culture as an important entry point to analyze the core of culture, and behind it is the progressive pursuit of "eating well, eating well, and eating well" and the humanistic care and empathy for others.
Throughout global history, the ability to ensure an adequate food supply for all people has almost been an important criterion for peace and prosperity.
Recently, there has been good news of another bumper grain harvest. On December 11, the National Bureau of Statistics released data that the country's total grain output in 2023 will be 13,908200 million catties, an increase of 177 over the previous year600 million catties, an increase of 13%, stable at 1 for 9 consecutive yearsMore than 3 trillion catties.
The bumper harvest was achieved under the influence of unfavorable factors such as the rare "bad rain" in Huanghuai, the severe floods in North and Northeast China, and the local drought in Northwest China. At the same time, it has also achieved a 0.0 increase in grain sown area5% and 0 percent yield increase over large areas8% for two improvements.
In line with this, there was also a bumper harvest of seasonal vegetables. Since November, cabbage, radish, potatoes, etc. have been on the market in large quantities.
However, there has been a sharp drop in the price of vegetables in the market, and some varieties have even appeared in the dilemma of being difficult to sell in some areas.
In November, the national average wholesale price of 28 kinds of vegetables monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 458 yuan, month-on-month **58%, 5 percent lower than the average price of the same period in the past three years2%。Some of these categories fell by more than 20%, such as spinach** fell by 266%, Chinese cabbage fell 264%。
According to the economy, taking the Chinese cabbage sold in the Beijing market as an example, in November, the Chinese cabbage in Tangshan, Hebei, Jinzhou, Liaoning and Langfang, Hebei were listed in a centralized manner, and the Chinese cabbage in Beijing was traded 20,000 tons per day, and the wholesale price was as low as 055 yuan, a year-on-year increase of **56%.
In early December, the decline was even worse. According to the 21st Century Business Herald, Beijing Xinfadi *** shows that the average price of Chinese cabbage on December 1 was 033 yuan catty, down 34% from the same period last year.
How to interpret the sharp price reduction in the vegetable market this time?
Citing the economy, Zhang Jing, chief analyst of the vegetable market analysis and early warning team of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that there are three main reasons:
(1) The overall weather in autumn is warm, the climatic conditions are suitable for the growth of vegetables, and the yield increases significantly. In the case of Chinese cabbage, for example, the yield increased by about 20%;
(2) The planting area of vegetables increased, and the foundation for stable production and supply was better. Last year, Chinese cabbage, cabbage, white radish and other "big road vegetables" ** were at a high level, this year's planting willingness is stronger, and the northern cold vegetable production areas and Shandong, Jiangsu and other places have expanded. At the beginning of November, the national vegetable field area increased by 12%；
(3) Due to the unfavorable weather in the early stage, the listing of some producing areas was postponed, and related varieties of open-field vegetables and cold shed vegetables were listed at the same time. Chinese cabbage ** was once more than 30% lower than the same period in the past three years, the lowest point in the same period in recent years, and individual producing areas even fell below the cost, and it was difficult to sell locally.
Even if the reason is found, there are still many people who are worried about whether the fluctuation of the vegetable market will cause "grain cheapness and hurt farmers", that is, the price of unsalable vegetables will be reduced, which will affect the income of farmers
How to break the situation by hurting farmers?
The explosion of the word "Gu cheap hurts farmers" is inseparable from the recent figure of the year - Dong Yuhui.
Once encountered netizens in the live broadcast room questioning that corn is too expensive, Dong Yuhui mentioned this word, and further elaborated that if it is sold too cheaply, it will lead to a decrease in farmers' income and planting willingness, which will have a systemic impact.
In fact, such a statement may not be appropriate in terms of Dong Yuhui's identity, because even if the terminal retail ** rises, it still can't change the problem of receiving **.
But this statement has indeed attracted widespread attention from society. And at the moment when the winter vegetables are plummeting, is there a chance to break the game?
First of all, it needs to be made clear that it is not simply to "hit up" the ** and let the consumer bear the price. In particular, because the agricultural industry chain needs various middlemen to complete collection, logistics, distribution and other activities, the effect of transmission from consumers to the end may be minimal.
Compared with this direct "subsidy" method, there are several other ideas that can be referenced, the first is to adjust the rational distribution of vegetable planting.
Just as this year's cabbage and radish by last year's best-selling impact led to this year's planting area increase, while the yield increased by 20% of the excess harvest made the supply on the market increase significantly, although the demand side due to the phenomenon of hoarding, but still not enough to digest, so adjust the distribution of the planting area of the category, is one of the best solutions to solve the problem of supply and demand fluctuations from the root.
Secondly, it is possible to explore more export opportunities according to the calculation of international vegetables** and costs.
In addition to the fluctuation of agricultural products is affected by domestic supply and demand, factors such as international market and logistics are also worth considering. Since the beginning of this year, there has been a sharp increase in international food prices, which is not only tight, but also superimposed on multiple factors such as the epidemic, extreme weather, and friction.
Internally, it will increase the import of agricultural products, which may increase domestic agricultural products, and externally, it is an opportunity for exports.
Taking South Korea as an example, since 2010, vegetables have begun to "take off", until now, the local market cabbage ** is almost equivalent to dozens of times that of the domestic **, and it is also an option to seek export as an opportunity.
Finally, I believe you still remember the classic picture of "xx unsalable, help us" on the **, using e-commerce and live e-commerce to sell vegetables with high quality, large yield and urgent need to be sold directly from farmers to consumers, which is also one of the most direct ways to help farmers tide over difficulties.
The cold wave is coming, and ** is picking up
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the "Agricultural Products Wholesale **200 Index" in the 49th week of this year was 11981 (100 in 2015), up 018 points, 6 lower than the same period last year55 pips;The "'vegetable basket' product wholesale **200 index" is 11979 (100 in 2015), up 022 points, 8 points lower than the same period last year17 points.
The average price of vegetables has shown a slight ** situation. The weekly average price of 28 kinds of vegetables monitored was 4 per kilogram75 yuan, up 02%, 3 higher than the same period last year5%。In terms of varieties, there are 12 kinds of vegetables *** 16 kinds **. Among them, leeks and green peppers ** rose 8 month-on-month respectively4% and 52%, and the rest of the varieties ** rose within 5%;Cucumber and ginger** fell 42% and 37%, and the rest of the varieties ** fell within 3%.
According to analysis, due to the cold wave, the demand for hoarding vegetables has led to a slight increase, among which, vegetables grown in the open air have risen significantly compared with greenhouse vegetables. This is also due to the impact of snowfall, the labor cost of open-air planting vegetables has increased, and the road conditions are complex, which takes longer, and has a greater impact on the transportation time. There may also be slight fluctuations** in the future depending on climatic conditions.
At the same time, the average price of fruits is also slightly higher**. The weekly average price of the six kinds of fruits monitored was 7 per kilogram05 yuan, up 06%, 3 higher than the same period last year1%。In terms of varieties, the weekly average prices of watermelon, Kyoho grapes and bananas rose month-on-month. 6% and 02%；The weekly average price of Yali pear was basically flat month-on-month;The weekly average price of pineapple and Fuji apple fell by 2 month-on-month7% and 10%。
Epilogue
Although the current vegetable price is at a low level, but the temperature continues to drop, the northern open-field vegetables will be gradually withdrawn, the market supply to the south of the vegetables and the north of the facility vegetables, with the increase in planting, transportation costs, vegetable prices will gradually rise.
Considering the upcoming New Year's Day and Spring Festival, "eating" will become an important activity again, which will further raise the demand for vegetable consumption and drive the price of vegetables.
In the final analysis, timely adjustment of farmers' vegetable production plans for the next season is one of the important ways to maintain the stability of vegetable prices.
Disclaimer] The content of the article is for research and Xi purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.