How to ** the number of suitable population in China in the future?
All other things being equal, there are three optimal population numbers for human beings. According to the happiness of human beings, the optimal number of people in the world can be divided into two types: one is that if each of us wants to achieve the greatest possible happiness, the average happiness of an individual is equal to the total happiness of mankind divided by the total number of people. When the average amount of happiness of an individual is the maximum, there is an optimal number of human beings under certain conditions. This population is called the optimal population size at the maximum average happiness of individuals, and the maximum happiness per capita is not reached when the population is more or less.
The second is if we humans are not so particularly selfish, or not very selfish, and allow others to be happy. Under certain conditions, there is also an optimal population size that allows humanity to have the greatest amount of happiness overall. Total human happiness is equal to the product of the total human population and the average amount of individual happiness. The population at this time is the optimal population size at the maximum of the total human happiness. This calculation holds that people are happy, and that living in the world is a pleasure.
The third is the world's best population according to the rate of social development. When the development rate of human society reaches the maximum value when the development rate of human society reaches the maximum value of a certain world population, it can be called the optimal population size of the world when the development rate of human society reaches the maximum value.
The above three optimal human population numbers are all population numbers based on the consideration of sustainable human development, and the numerical size of each population will not be the same.
A country also has an optimal population for its total population. If a country is fully closed, the optimal population size depends on the situation within the country. If the country is not closed, it depends on the actual situation of the entire planet. It is not possible to rely on the situation within a country to achieve the optimal number of people in the country. If it is made out by some people, it is also random and has no truth value. Our current earth is closely interconnected, and no country can close itself off, and no country is engaged in isolation. (Although North Korea is relatively closed, the country still has various connections with the outside world, such as ** contacts, information contacts, etc.) ）
The optimal population estimated by the internal situation of one's own country is all pseudo-optimal population size. The estimated optimal population size of a given country does not even have the concept of these three optimal population values, and it is impossible to distinguish what is going on. I really don't understand what they came up with on the basis of what the best population size of their country.
Estimates of the relative magnitude of these three optimal population values: the size of the global optimal population value at the maximum of individual average happiness should be smaller than the optimal population value at the maximum value of total human happiness. It is relatively difficult to feel that the optimal number of people in the world may be smaller than the optimal population value when the development rate of human society reaches the maximum (long-term average) when the average happiness of individuals is maximum, so the author uses the word maybe.
When the total happiness of mankind is maximum, the optimal population value and the development rate of human society (long-term average) reach the maximum, and the optimal population value is difficult to compare, and it may not even be used. The size of the two optimal values for population numbers is estimated to be relatively close.
All other assumptions are the three possible optimal population values for human beings. This is a hypothetical future population size if the actual number of human beings falls below any of the three possible optimal population numbers, and assumes that science and technology remain unchanged during this time.
If the human population on Earth does not change, all other assumptions are given, the total human population would have exceeded one of the three possible optimal population values. At this point, if you plan the optimal number of humans, you will get a different new value. If the actual total number of human beings exceeds the original maximum of average individual happiness, the optimal number of people in the world. A new maximum of individual average happiness is obtained when the number of people in the world is optimal. And this newly obtained quantity value is larger than the original quantity value. The other two possible optimal population values change similarly, and this is also the case for fully closed countries.
If China is a completely closed country. China can derive three possible optimal population values based on its various conditions. If the Chinese population is 100 million, if other assumptions do not change, China will have the best total population of its own country when it obtains the maximum average happiness of individuals, assuming that this number is 1 billion. If the Chinese population is 1.3 billion, and other assumptions do not change, when China obtains the maximum average happiness of individuals, the optimal total population of its own country will not be the same as before, and it will not be 1 billion people. It will be a little bigger than this billion, say 1.1 billion people. It should be easy to understand the change caused by this premise, the additional cost of forcing the population to decrease, and when this cost is taken into account, a new optimal population value can be obtained. I wonder if Chinese demographers take this factor into account when calculating the appropriate number of people on the mainland?This is assuming that the optimal population value within China exists only when China is completely closed. There is no such thing as a completely closed state. It is incomprehensible to wonder how Chinese demographers arrive at the appropriate or optimal population values for China.
All other assumptions are given, the three possible optimal population values also vary with the average IQ of the population. The higher the average IQ of the population, the greater the values of these three possible optimal population numbers. Those scholars who can calculate the appropriate population of China do not know that the average IQ of the population of Chinese mainland is considered?If you consider what kind of IQ level, the number of suitable population in China is envisaged in the future. It is indeed absurd to conclude the appropriate number of China's future population without even taking into account the important influencing factor of average IQ.
All other assumptions remain unchanged, the three possible optimal population values will change with the change of science and technology. If an estimate of the appropriate population is to be made at some point in the future, it is necessary to refer to the possible level of science and technology at that time. Because the level of science and technology has a great influence on the magnitude of the three possible optimal population values. It is not known what level of science and technology Chinese scholars assume in their estimates of the number of suitable populations for the mainland in the future. What do these scholars know about the level of science and technology in a few decades?How do you know the level of science and technology in a few decades?Don't you know what these demographers are referring to the possible level of science and technology in the future?If not, it would be ridiculous. If so, how?What exactly do these people assume that in a few decades, science and technology will be at what level?How far is it from the truth?Can it be the Internet now?These demographers may still be alive now, you can ask these people.
There are also many public resources on the planet, the four oceans, Antarctica. For example, there are a large number of fish and shrimp near Antarctica, which are valuable natural resources, and I wonder if these scholars consider these natural resources. It doesn't matter if it's not considered, these natural resources don't seem to make much sense now. But what about the future?In the future, the natural resources of these places may be very meaningful. It would be inappropriate not to consider these public resources when considering the country's future modest or optimal population size.
The number of suitable populations in a completely closed country in the future will be affected by many factors. The main influencing factors are the future of science and technology, the real situation of underground or aboveground natural resources (the status of resources is uncertain, that is, according to the same level of science and technology, with the change of time, the amount of resources is also uncertain, and the degree of effort to explore resources will also greatly affect the reserves of natural resources). The future science and technology of this completely closed country is influenced by the average IQ of the citizens of this completely closed country, as well as by the various social systems of this country. The quantity of underground and aboveground natural resources is also an uncertain factor, related to the level of science and technology, and also related to the amount of natural resources objectively existing underground, and science and technology itself is also an uncertain factor. I don't know what demographers in Chinese mainland base on to determine these uncertain factors.
The higher the quality of the population, the higher the effect or benefit of the use of natural resources, and from the perspective of natural resources, a fully closed country can feed more people. The effect of the use of natural resources is also related to the social system, and a good social system will promote better use or less waste of natural resources, so that the same natural resources can feed more people.
From the above analysis, it can be seen that it is indeed absurd to adopt a moderate population theory or an optimal population theory for a country.