Suppose the United States also implements a one-child family planning policy
What if the United States passed the one-child family planning policy and operated it for a long time?What will happen to the economic situation of Americans?Will everyone get richer, or something else?
If the United States pursues a family planning policy, and it is a one-child system and a fair birth policy, all ethnic groups are equal in front of the family planning policy, and it is not aimed at the main ethnic group. The one-child family planning policy began in 2007 with the goal of halving the U.S. population from the current 300 million to 1500 million people. According to calculations, if such a policy is carried out for 50 years, it will be possible to reduce the population of the United States to half of its current size after 50 years, that is, 1500 million people. What will be the state of the U.S. economy in the next 50 years?Let's take a closer look.
The one-child family planning system in the United States began, and when the one-child system was not practiced, a couple in the United States had an average of two children. The average number of babies born in the United States is 4 million per year, and the average life expectancy of Americans is 75 years. The United States pays attention to the legal system, and the one-child system is a law, and everyone abides by it. Under the one-child family planning policy, Americans had 2 million fewer births in the first year.
These 2 million people have had some impact on the U.S. economy, diaper companies have seen their performance drop by 25 percent, profits have fallen, workers have partially lost their jobs, average wages have fallen, and bosses' incomes have dropped a lot. The milk powder industry has also seen a decline in performance. There are also changes in the nanny industry, the number of nannies has not changed, but the demand has decreased, and the salary of nannies has begun to decline. People in the childbearing age, because the average child is less, everyone has more free time, and some of them choose to use the Internet more, resulting in an increase in the demand for the information industry, business will be relatively better, and the average salary of workers in the information industry may be higher. There are also some people who choose leisure, some read books at home, some watch TV, and some engage in sports. These basically cost nothing. Still others have opted for travel and have increased their average spending on travel a bit. In this way, the tourism industry in the United States or other countries will be relatively vigorous, the number of people employed will be larger, and the average salary will be higher.
There are also those who choose to socialize more with others and yearn for more friendship. Of course, there will be more opportunities for fighting and scolding. There are also some people who choose to work, and the United States has enough jobs and the employment population is growing, resulting in a tight employment situation in the United States and an increase in the unemployment rate.
There will inevitably be a family planning management committee in the United States, which will increase some first-class expenditures, increase people's tax burden, lower the level of national income, weaken national consumption, cause some industries to shrink correspondingly, and produce some distortions to many economic activities. This is the result of the one-child system in the first year, and from an economic point of view, a few happy and a few sad, which is beneficial to some industries and harmful to others. and increase the tax burden and distort the economy. Sociologically, first of all, the violation of the reproductive rights of Americans. Secondly, it reduces the average happiness of people in the whole society, so that the average happiness of everyone decreases, and reduces the happiness of family.
The above is the effect of the one-child family planning policy in the first year. What will happen in the second year?It should be similar. Another 2 million babies have been reduced, and the blow to the baby nanny industry has been even greater, and the blow to the milk powder industry has been doubled. The blow to the obstetrics and gynecology departments of hospitals will also be great, and the demand for obstetricians and gynecologists will be halved, and this half of obstetricians and gynecologists will either transfer to specialties that they are not good at or lose their jobs. As a result, the competitive pressure for obstetricians and gynecologists is very high, resulting in a much lower average salary. Of course, obstetrics and gynecology ** also need to be transferred or half of the job is unemployed, of course, the efficiency of such hospitals is poor. The decrease in infancy also increases the pressure on young child doctors to survive. Slightly detrimental to agriculture. Of course, people will use the time and expenses of raising babies to other things, which will make certain industries more profitable. Or people will choose leisure more than work, because they don't need so much money and have no incentive to work hard. If people choose leisure, it is unknown how much of a blow will be to the amount of employment. However, these effects are proportional to the timing of the one-child family planning policy. This is because the number of families affected by the one-child system is proportional to the time of the implementation of the one-child system.
What will happen in the third year of the one-child family planning policy?It should be basically exactly like the above. It's just that some aspects need to be aggravated. For example, the babysitting industry has hit rock bottom. The unemployment rate for baby babysitters will be a bit higher, reaching the maximum. These people will leave the babysitting industry in pain, receive ** relief, or be employed in other industries. That is, in their own non-advantageous industries, the average salary of baby nannies who have transferred employment will of course not be as high as their original salary. The average salary in the babysitting industry will also drop to an all-time low due to the fiercest competition.
What will happen in the fourth year of one-child family planning?It should be basically exactly like the above. The baby nanny industry has basically reached a new balance, but the average salary is lower than before the family planning, but the employment pressure is not as big as two years ago, basically similar to before the family planning, the pressure is slightly greater. The throes of the babysitting industry are over. The labor pains of the obstetrician and gynecologist and ** are basically over. Employment pressures have normalized, albeit a little harsher. The average salary should be correspondingly lower. The baby milk powder industry is basically in a big wave, the one who should go out of business has closed down, and the capitalists should jump off the building. Workers are transferred, some receive relief, and some find other jobs. However, it is no longer a skilled job, and of course, the average salary is lower than before. The contraction of agricultural production is beginning to be revealed.
What will happen in the fifth year of one-child family planning?It should be basically exactly like the above. What will happen to the sixth, seventh, and eighth years of one-child family planning?It should be basically exactly like the above. Beginning to affect primary schools, the size of preschool classes will be halved. A large number of preschool teachers who were employed were going to lose their jobs, and a number of such schools were going to close down. Preschool teachers are under increased pressure to compete for jobs, wages are falling, and half of them are unemployed or moved to other industries. The preschool industry has also undergone painful optimization in the past few years. By the eighth year, it was relatively stable, and the average wage was slightly lower because of the greater competitive pressure than before the family planning. The number of students in the first and second grades of primary school began to halve. For the time being, it is a big waste of educational resources, for example, the class size is small, but the number of teachers needed is the same. However, in the long run, there will be less waste of resources after regrouping. For public schools, the state will spend less. When it comes to private schools, it's a matter of life and death. Half of all private schools should fail, and that should be the case in the long run. Inevitably, with fierce competition, private school profits have plummeted, and shareholder returns have plummeted. Those young childhood doctors have also experienced an unprecedented decline in income, and half of them have to transfer their clients to specialties that they are not good at, and the result is, of course, that the average income will fall if they are not transferred. There has been a marked decline in demand for agriculture, some products have begun to decline, and the average income of peasants has begun to decrease.
What will happen to the nine-child family planning policy in its ninth year?What about the tenth, eleventh, and twelfth years?In addition to being similar to the above, what new changes will occur?In the intervening years, primary schools have continued to shrink and there has been an employment crisis for primary school teachers. It is no longer possible to accept new teachers, and those young people who have just graduated from normal schools generally mean that they are unemployed, after all, the original teachers still need to be partially unemployed and some transferred. The state may save money on primary schools and use the savings to help unemployed teachers in public and private primary schools. For private elementary schools, it was a disaster. The returns of private primary schools have fallen significantly, and investment has become unprofitable.
What will happen to the 13th year of the one-child family planning policy?What about the fourteenth and fifteenth years?Problems began to arise in junior high school, similar to those in elementary school. The adolescent milk powder industry has also shrunk. Of course, there is also the problem of unemployment and job transfer. The state has saved on education, but the state needs to help more people. The issue of eating is starting to become a bit important, mainly because there are not so many people eating anymore. Some restaurants are starting to do cold business, and food shops are starting to do cold business. The demand for agricultural products began to decline significantly, and some farmers began to lose their jobs and receive relief. Farms began to decline, farm profits began to decrease, arable land ** began to decrease, and part of the arable land became barren. The children's entertainment industry began to take a hard hit, making little profit, and shareholders were almost wiped out. Some children's entertainment businesses began to go out of business, and workers were forced to lose their jobs, receive relief, or move their industries.
What will happen to the 16th year of the one-child family planning policy?What about the seventeenth and eighteenth years?American high schools are starting to have similar problems as junior high schools. The demand for food is smaller, the pressure on farmers is greater, and the prosperity of tourism, which used to grow in income, is slowly declining. As a result of the significant decline in the total population, the population decreased by 36 million in these eighteen years. The demand for all kinds of consumer goods has decreased, resulting in an overall reduction in the demand for labor, while the supply of labor has not changed. As a result, people's unemployment rate has risen dramatically, the amount of relief needed has risen sharply, and people's average income has fallen. Although the state has reduced its spending on education, the unemployment rate has increased, and the number of people in need of relief has increased, and the state's expenditure may not change much. The average profits of capitalists began to fall, and shareholder returns decreased. In short, the average income of all classes has decreased.
What will happen to the 16th, 17th, 18th, and 19th years of operation of the one-child family planning policy?That's when universities started to suffer. Universities are shrinking, and university teachers and staff are under pressure to lose their jobs. It has become almost impossible for those with high knowledge to find employment at universities, and there has been a phenomenon of narrowing the employment path. Industries continue to shrink, people face greater pressure to lose their jobs, and shareholder returns are further reduced. The financial industry is full of crises, especially those in the insurance industry, such as pension insurance, which has accumulated a lot of money, which was originally reproduced by making money or speculating. And now because capital is no longer so profitable, there has been a big devaluation. The return on investing in other industries is also much less. In short, pension insurance has become difficult to make ends meet. In order to continue paying the elderly, the state had to make up for it by raising taxes. The increase in taxes is very detrimental to the operation of the economy, firstly, it distorts economic activity, and secondly, it increases the burden on enterprises and leads to the development of goods
What will happen in the 20th, 21st, and 22nd years of operation of the one-child family planning policy?The ** of the labor force has basically not changed, and the demand for labor has shrunk further. Employment pressure has further increased, and the number of unemployed has further increased. If the tax rate continues to increase, it will seriously suppress people's enthusiasm for labor, and the distortion of the economic system will be great, resulting in a small increase in the actual amount of tax revenue. What to do?The minimum subsistence allowance can be lowered, that is, the quality of life of the unemployed, mainly through the average reduction of the amount of benefits, so as to reduce the necessary expenses and make up for the lack of tax increases. This will lead to more pressure on the employed, because people are more willing to choose employment, which of course will lead to lower wages for the employed and lower incomes for the middle and lower income earners. Due to the decline in people's income, the consumption has declined, which in turn has led to a decline in the production volume of enterprises, and the competitive pressure between enterprises has increased, resulting in a decline in profits, a decline in the income of enterprise leaders, and a part of the collapse of enterprises, and the part of the assets that have collapsed is generally lost. In short, the income of the upper strata of society will also fall significantly. The result is a decline in the total amount of production and a decrease in average income in society as a whole.
What will happen in the 23rd, 24th, and 25th years of the one-child family planning policy?The population has lost by another 6 million. The labor force has decreased slightly, and it can be reduced by about 2 million. As the demand for various commodities has further decreased as a result of the declining population, the real employment pressure has remained largely unchanged. More businesses of all kinds have closed down, and there has been a real full-fledged economic contraction. Almost every industry has negative growth. The country's tax revenues fell further, and so did the amount of benefits for the unemployed. The decline in the number of urban populations has led to the shrinkage of cities, and the shrinking of cities has led to a significant drop in urban land prices, and due to the gradual decline in the demand for houses, housing prices have plummeted. Those elderly people who were originally counting on their own houses for retirement have experienced an unexpected drop in housing prices, and their quality of life has also declined. The performance of various insurance companies has declined, and most insurance companies have struggled to deliver on their previous promises. Because their various investments are seriously shrinking, real estate, all kinds of ** and so on. Those who count on pension insurance have lower expectations for their quality of life, and the insurance company can only cash out a part, and the state subsidizes a part, which can add up to live, but it is not as high as previously estimated.
What will happen in the 26th, 27th, and 28th years of the one-child family planning policy?The population has fallen by another 6 million. As the population decreases, so does the demand for labor, which will decrease by about 3 million. The ** labor force also decreased by 6 million, so that a turning point began. The employment pressure on the labor force began to reduce, only a little. Per capita income began to stabilize and did not continue to decline. But the incomes of those who depend on capital for food continue to fall, because capital is still depreciating. However, the country's economy is declining rapidly, with an average annual decline of 1% in GDP over the past few years.
What will happen in the 29th, 30th, and 31st years of the one-child family planning policy?A total of 5 million newborn babies in three years, 4 million deaths per year in the elderly population, a total of 12 million in three years, a decrease of 7 million in the total population, and a decrease of 6 million in the labor force**. The demand for labor can be reduced by about 3.5 million, and 2.5 million more people can be employed, and the pressure on labor employment will be reduced. The number of people in need of relief is decreasing. **The burden is lightened. The demand for labor has decreased by 3.5 million, and the corresponding various industries have shrunk by so much, reducing the GDP by an average of 1% per year. Housing prices, land prices, and the benefits of basic industries, such as highways, railways, and aviation, are shrinking sharply, and they are declining rapidly. No new highways have been built for several years, and railways are rapidly declining, with many sections ceasing operations. Revenues from public transport within cities are also declining.
What will happen in the 32nd, 33rd, and 34th years of the one-child family planning policy?More than 4 million babies were born in three years. The elderly population dies 4 million per year, a total of 12 million in three years, and the total population is reduced by nearly 8 million. The labor force has decreased by 6 million, and the demand for labor force can probably be reduced by 4 million, and more than 2 million people can be employed, and the pressure on labor employment has been further reduced, and workers' wages have begun to rise. As a result of the reduction of the total social labor force by 4 million, the country's economy is still shrinking, with an average annual decrease of 13% of GDP.
What will happen in the 35th, 36th, and 37th years of the one-child family planning policy?In total, there were less than 4 million babies born in three years. The elderly population dies 4 million per year, a total of 12 million in three years, and the total population of the country is reduced by 8 million. The labor force is reduced by 6 million, and the demand for labor in society can also be reduced by 4 million, and more than 2 million people can be employed. There is almost no pressure on labor force employment, and labor wages continue to rise. The country's economy is still shrinking, with an average annual decline of at least 13% of GDP.
What will happen in the 38th, 39th, and 40th years of the one-child family planning policy?More than 3 million babies were born in three years. The elderly population dies 4 million per year, a total of 12 million in three years, and the total population has decreased by nearly 9 million. The labor force ** is reduced by 6 million, and the demand for labor force can probably be reduced by 4.5 million, so that there is a shortage of labor force of 1.5 million, and the labor force ** rises rapidly. The average annual decrease is 14% of GDP. Assets are still shrinking, and labor is becoming scarce. With a healthy body, you can live a good life. However, the total number of elderly people has not changed for decades, and the proportion of the elderly population is rising rapidly. The number of laborers is decreasing, and the burden per capita is bound to rise year by year, of course, through taxation. Because it is impossible to rely on pension insurance or assets for the aged, assets are seriously shrinking, and pension insurance cannot be cashed out at all. The problem of pension for the elderly can only be solved by increasing taxes. At this time, the labor force** is rising rapidly, and the quality of life of the elderly is inevitably declining steadily.
What will happen to the 41st, 42nd, and 43rd years of operation of the one-child family planning policy?A total of 3 million babies were born in three years. The elderly population dies 4 million per year, a total of 12 million in three years, and the total population is reduced by 9 million. The labor force will be reduced by 6 million, and the demand for labor will probably be reduced by 4.5 million, and the shortage of 1.5 million labor force will inevitably ease the employment balance through the soaring labor force. Capital continues to shrink, the proportion of the elderly population continues to rise, and the national labor force has decreased by 6 million. The per capita burden of the surplus labor force is greater, the tax burden is very large, and a larger part of the income from people's labor becomes taxes, and people's labor enthusiasm is very low, that is, the voluntary labor supply of labor force is less. **Taxes are struggling to make ends meet. According to the tax coefficient, if we continue to increase the proportion of tax revenue, people's labor supply will drop by a relatively large margin, and the amount of tax revenue will not increase, but will decrease, and under the market economy, it is impossible for the per capita labor tax amount to increase. However, the total labor force is declining, the total tax revenue is declining, and the number of elderly people has not changed, the per capita subsidy of the elderly population will be less, the quality of life of the elderly will continue to decline, and the situation of many elderly people has deteriorated to a distressing level, and some elderly people even can't think of committing suicide. There was no way, and I tried my best. In a market economy, it is no longer possible to improve the situation of the elderly. In a non-market economy, it is even more impossible.
What will happen in the 44th, 45th, and 46th years of the one-child family planning policy?A total of 2.5 million babies were born in three years. The elderly population dies 4 million per year, a total of 12 million in three years, and the total population of the country is reduced by 9.5 million. The labor force** decreased by 6 million. The demand for labor can probably be reduced by 4.7 million, and there is a shortage of 1.3 million labor, and the balance of labor force can be achieved through the continuous rise of labor force. The quality of life of older people continues to decline. The tax burden on working families is too great, and at this time, people are reluctant to have children because they cannot afford to raise children. But if each family has only one child like this, then the country will always be in such a vicious circle. After a few hundred years, the population is almost completely gone, and the state will perish.
The United States has thought about the future, and it is really scary. What to do?The quality of life of the elderly population is already very low, and there are many suicides. It is very painful to die by suicide, and the state should have a conscience and should find a way to solve the problem of the elderly population. Someone came up with an idea - euthanasia. This idea is really good, let the old man choose for himself, whether to live or euthanasia. In this way, a lot of financial savings can be saved, and these financial savings can be used to encourage people to have children. It is best for women to be willing to have an average of 21 child, so that there is hope for the country, it will be able to get out of this vicious circle, it will not disappear from the face of the earth. Since then, one-child family planning has disappeared from the United States.
If the United States implements a one-child family planning policy only for the population of the main ethnic group, such as the one-child family planning policy for white Americans, the shrinkage rate of the American population will be somewhat reduced, but a more terrible future awaits the United States. The proportion of the white population will decline rapidly, and the proportion of the population of non-subject ethnic groups will rise rapidly, which will lead to further complication of the population composition of the United States, will lead to the lack of a majority ethnic group in the United States, and will deal a greater blow to the American economy, which will completely slump the American economy. The strength of the United States mainly depends on the white population of the main ethnic group in the United States, and the demographic composition of the non-dominant white population will lead to the United States becoming a demographic situation similar to Brazil, becoming another Brazil, and the strong United States will die. If the proportion of white Americans falls to the level of the proportion of white people in South Africa, the United States will be an oversized South Africa, and it will change from a developed country to a developing country.