In April 2023, Marcos of the Philippines visited Japan to participate in the Japan-ASEAN Summit. He hopes to use this as an opportunity to woo Japan and counter China's influence in the South China Sea. However, he may not have expected that his move would trigger a huge crisis in his own country.
People from all walks of life in the Philippines have expressed dissatisfaction with his South China Sea policy, and some have even launched a rebellion to threaten his dominance. Will Marcos's dream of the South China Sea be shattered?What can he gain from the ASEAN summit in Japan?
Since Marcos came to power, he has always pursued a diplomatic line of confrontation with China, especially on the South China Sea issue, he did not hesitate to conflict with China, and even asked the United States for help, hoping to use the military power of the United States to safeguard the sovereignty and interests of the Philippines in the South China Sea. However, this policy has not received widespread support in the Philippines.
On the contrary, many Filipinos believe that Marcos' South China Sea policy is an adventurism that not only harms the Philippines' friendly relations with China, but also sacrifices the Philippines' economic interests, and may even trigger a catastrophic war. Therefore, when Marcos visited Japan, large-scale activities broke out in the Philippines, demanding that Marcos stop provoking China and return to the path of peace and cooperation.
In addition to civilian grievances, Marcos also faces threats from the military. There are a number of armed forces in the Philippines, the most powerful of which is the New People's Army, a communist guerrilla force that has long fought against the ** army. After Marcos came to power, he tried to hold peace talks with the NPA, but no substantial progress was made.
On the contrary, the NPA believes that Marcos is a puppet who has betrayed the interests of the Filipino people, so it has stepped up its attack on the ** army. When Marcos visited Japan, the NPA took the opportunity to launch a large-scale rebellion, capturing several important cities in the southern Philippines, declaring the establishment of the people**, and demanding Marcos**. This move seriously shook Marcos's dominance and also had a huge impact on the social order of the Philippines.
The main purpose of Marcos's visit to Japan is to participate in the Japan-ASEAN summit, hoping to take the opportunity to win over Japan and counter China's influence in the South China Sea. However, his plan was met with a cold reception from Japan and other ASEAN countries. Although Japan has certain interests in line with the Philippines, it is also reluctant to openly confront China, let alone endorse the Philippines' South China Sea policy.
When Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met with Marcos, he only politely expressed his support for the Philippines and did not make any substantive commitments or actions. Other ASEAN countries have not expressed approval or support for Marcos's South China Sea policy, but are more concerned about how to maintain good relations with China and promote regional peace and development.
Marcos's South China Sea policy has not only brought no benefits to the Philippines, but has instead caused domestic turmoil and diplomatic embarrassment. Marcos's dream of the South China Sea has been shattered, and his political future is in jeopardy. He should adjust his policy in a timely manner, give up the illusion of confronting China, and return to the path of peace and cooperation, so as to save his declining situation and be responsible for the interests of the country and people of the Philippines.