Executive Summary:
The latest poll shows that 56% of Russian citizens want to end the war in Ukraine in 2024, and the number of supporters of the war has decreased to 12% from 22% in February. However, in terms of Putin's personal wishes, it is also difficult to make decisions that conform to the will of the people. What the Ukrainians support is not the option of ceding territory to end the war, but the option of ending the war on the premise of restoring the 1991 borders.
1. The latest polls show that 56% of Russian citizens want to end the war in Ukraine by 2024.
AsiaNews reported that half of Russian citizens want to end the war in Ukraine in 2024, according to a survey published on Friday, December 29, 2023 by the Russian polling organization Russian Field, which has put a lot of pressure on Putin, who has just announced another candidacy.
When respondents to the poll were asked: "What do they want for Russia in the new year", the most popular answer was that 56% chose "a peaceful sky and the end of the special military operation." The special military operation is the Kremlin's official name for the invasion of Ukraine. In this survey, only 6% of respondents said they would like Russia to achieve "victory in the war".
Other answers to the multiple-choice question "What do you want for Russia in the new year?" included 40 percent wishing for good health, 14 percent wanting to be more patient to survive the difficult wartime economy, and 10 to 13 percent wishing for happiness and wishes for happiness.
Russia Field disclosed in the survey report that the survey also included "less common" options, including the hope that Russia's Putin would be the next president, but the proportion of poll data recovered by pollsters who chose this option was less than one percentage point after rounding.
The poll results come as the war in Ukraine will enter its second anniversary in two months, with Putin running for a fifth term in Russia** elections in March 2024.
A December poll by the Levada Center, another Russian polling firm, found that Putin's approval ratings remained relatively high throughout the war, with 83 percent of Russians reportedly expressing support for the Kremlin leader this month, down just two percentage points from November.
2. The number of Russians supporting the war decreased from 22% in February 2023 to 12% in October.
The bottom end of the form. However, despite popular support for Putin, other surveys show that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is becoming increasingly unpopular among its citizens. A poll conducted in October by Chronicles, a Moscow-based research institute, found that only 12 percent of respondents supported the war, while in February 2023, a further 22 percent said they supported it.
Another poll by the Levada Center in October 2023 found that 70% of Russians would support Putin if he decided to end the conflict this week. About a third of respondents said they would also support ending the war if it meant that Russia would have to return Ukrainian territory that was annexed last fall.
Third, as far as Putin's personal wishes are concerned, it is also difficult to make decisions that conform to the will of the people.
Putin has said that Moscow will not end its war of aggression until the country is "demilitarized" and neutralized in Ukraine. He also blamed Russia for forcing Russia to go to war due to Western influence on Kyiv.
The latest poll results should not be a trend that Putin wants to see. Because the message that Putin has received from those around him has always been that the Russians are highly supportive of his special military operation in Ukraine. But the results of the polls have an impact on Putin's domestic and foreign policy, but the impact is not conclusive. After all, in Russia, it is difficult to unify the needs of interest groups and oligarchs with the needs of the people. The decisions made by the Kremlin are mainly driven by interest groups and oligarchs.
As far as Putin's personal wishes are concerned, it is also difficult to make decisions that conform to the will of the people. As the saying goes, there is no turning back from the bow, and once the war against Ukraine starts, for Putin, there are only two options: victory or defeat. Victory, becoming a modern version of Alexander in Russia, defeat, may not even have a chance to leave the Kremlin, and become the new Russian ** Lamb of Guilt.
Fourth, without returning to the 1991 borders, the Ukrainians will not choose to end the war.
Investigations conducted in Ukraine also found that support for Kyiv to end the war is also increasing, although Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky is showing no signs of seeking negotiations with Putin. But what the Ukrainians support is not the option of ceding territory to end the war, but the option of ending the war on the premise of restoring the 1991 borders.
After Russia launched its largest airstrikes on Ukraine overnight on Friday, December 29, Zelensky issued a statement to the X platform, pledging to "continue to strengthen our air defenses and work to restore the territory to where it was in 1991 through war".
At the same time, it is reported that the first batch of 20 F-16 fighters has already arrived in Ukraine in the past two days. Ukraine, which already has land advantages such as tanks and Seahorses and air defense advantages such as Patriot air defense systems, will definitely add F-16 fighters to the tiger.
Saburo is very worried, now that Putin has seen the latest polls hoping to end the war, and has made a difficult decision to end the war and withdraw its troops back to Russia, will Ukraine be in full swing, take advantage of the victory, and pursue the troops under the city of Moscow, so that the Russians can also taste the taste of living under artillery fire?
Finally, I wish my friends all the best in 2024!
Author: Xu Sanlang].