In September, after Beijing and Shanghai implemented the "mortgage subscription", the market also ushered in a wave of "subscription peak". However, the policy at that time was mainly beneficial to customers who just needed to buy a house, for example, buyers who had loan records in other places, but did not have a house in Beijing and Shanghai, and bought a house according to the standard of the first house. Of course, to a certain extent, "recognising the house but not recognising the loan" is also good for the improvement or replacement of buyers, but the benefits for promoting the transaction of second-hand housing are limited, so the property market transaction fell into a "sideways period" again after the short-term surge and retreat.
On the evening of December 14, Beijing and Shanghai simultaneously adjusted the new policies for the property marketBoth new policies include the optimization of the criteria for the identification of ordinary houses;Adjust the down payment ratio for the first and second homes by region;and a reduction in mortgage interest rates. In addition, Beijing will extend the loan tenure to 30 years.
1.In terms of the identification standards of ordinary houses, Beijing has optimized the building area and the highest quality, and Shanghai has optimized the building form and building area and needs to meet the requirements at the same time. The coverage of ordinary houses will be expanded, and the value-added tax and individual income tax payment linked to ordinary residences will be adjusted in the later stage, thereby reducing the tax cost of home buyers. It also has a positive effect on the reduction of transaction costs and the activity of second-hand housing.
2.Both places have made differentiated adjustments to the down payment ratio for different regions, with the minimum adjustment for the first set being reduced to 3% and the minimum adjustment for the second set being reduced to 4%. It directly lowers the capital threshold for residents to purchase housing, which is conducive to better meeting the demand for rigid and improved housing and enhancing the confidence and enthusiasm of home buyers.
3.Both places have differentiated mortgage interest rates for different regions. It will help to carry out better implementation and promotion based on the actual situation in various places, and promote the reduction of monthly payment or mortgage loan costs for home buyers.
4.In addition, the loan tenure in Beijing has been restored to 30 years. It also matches the current status quo in a timely manner, which helps to alleviate the monthly payment pressure of home buyers and release the demand for home purchases.
As of now, the new policy has been implemented for a full week, what is the market reaction?What are the attitudes and reactions of developers, home buyers, and home sellers?
The popularity of new houses in Beijing is differentiated, and the owners of second-hand housesRush to make a move at the expense of the price1. Developers do not dare to act rashly, and there has not yet been a price increaseAfter the introduction of the new policy, a number of real estate projects immediately seized the opportunity, Longfor Yuhujing, Zhongjian Jiuyue Mansion and other "late night non-closing" activities to receive customer visits. Compared with the introduction of the "recognition of housing but not loans" in September, a number of developers in Beijing chose to withdraw the discount, it is estimated that they have learned the lessons of the previous new deal that the heat of the new deal is short and less than expected. There are also developers who combine the year-end sprint task indicators to increase discounts, and do not hesitate to "exchange price for volume" to speed up the collection, such as Beijing Jinmao released five year-end benefits on official WeChat, launching a fixed price** and 96% discount;Beijing Vanke recently launched some direct drops** and 1% point discounts in Douyin's live broadcast to ensure a sprint at the end of the year.
2. The new housing market is uneven, and the transaction volume rebounds slightlyAccording to the case research, after the implementation of the new policy, the threshold for buying a house has been greatly reduced, and the number of visiting customers has increased compared with previous weeks. In contrast, the flow of rigid demand projects has increased significantly, and most of the passenger flow of improvement projects has remained at the original level, but the determination to replace them has become firmer. For example, in the first weekend after the new deal, the number of customers visiting the project increased by nearly 55% month-on-month, reaching nearly 500 groups, and 28 sets were sold, setting a new high for weekend visits and transactions after the opening and smooth salesThe weekend subscription of individual projects for investment promotion has also increased by about 3-4%. However, some developers and real estate developers said that they may be affected by heavy snowfall, and the transaction volume on the first weekend after the new deal was basically the same as in the previous period, such as China Resources and Pearl River.
According to the public data of Beijing Housing and Urban-Rural Development, after the implementation of the new policy, the number of new housing transactions was higher than that in the previous period, with 647 units traded in two days on the weekend of 16-17, 166% higher than the number of units traded in two days on the weekend of 9-10 last week. In December, the number of transactions on weekdays within a week after the new deal landed was also better than before the landing, and the average daily transaction volume was 127 and 230 sets respectively in the two weeks before and after the new deal, and the new deal exceeded 8 percent after the landing.
Data**: Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, titanium**.
One week after the official implementation of the new policy, the average daily transaction volume of new houses was 230 units, which was also at a high level compared with the average daily transaction number from January to November.
Data**: Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, titanium**.
3. The demand for second-hand housing has increased, and sellers are eager to reduce pricesAfter the implementation of the new deal, the vast majority of customers believe that the speed of second-hand housing will be greatly improved after the introduction of the new deal, and customers who were previously subject to the liquidity of second-hand housing are more willing to come out to see the house. The volume of shows has increased significantly, and the transaction volume has also increased slightly compared with before the implementation of the new policy in December.
Second-hand home buyers may not necessarily make a move, but the demand for viewing houses has increased significantly, and they want to understand the market situation first. An intermediary said: "In recent days, due to heavy snow in Beijing, offline house viewing has been affected to a certain extent, but the number of online house viewing has surged, and although the transaction volume is not as obvious as after the introduction of the 'mortgage without loan' policy in September, it has also increased compared with the previous two months." ”
For sellers, the mentality has changed, and some sellers are optimistic about the market outlook, raising the listing price, or reducing the bargaining space. And most sellers, the bargaining space remains unchanged, and some even do not hesitate to reduce the price in order to take advantage of the situation and make a quick move. According to the data, on December 15, Lianjia added 161 new listings, with a total of 141154 listings. The price of 215 sets of ** increased, and the price of 2018 sets ** doubled compared with the previous day. It is understood that most of the owners who take the initiative to reduce prices are already optimistic about the next suite, so they are in a hurry to make a move. At the same time, the initiative to reduce the price is also to attract more buyers to see their houses and promote transactions.
According to the public data of Beijing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the number of second-hand housing transactions within a week after the implementation of the new deal in January and February was better than before the landing, and the average daily transaction volume was 366 and 391 respectively in the two weeks before and after the new deal, which increased slightly.
Data**: Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, titanium**.
One week after the official implementation of the new policy, the average daily transaction volume of second-hand houses was 391 units, compared with the average daily transaction number from January to November, ranking in the middle position, and not yet reaching the average daily level in November. On the one hand, because the second-hand housing market in Beijing is relatively active in November, on the other hand, because the identification of ordinary houses in Beijing will be implemented from January 1, 2024, and once it is identified as ordinary residences, it means that the tax cost of second-hand houses can be significantly reduced, so most customers are in a wait-and-see situation.
Data**: Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, titanium**.
The adjustment of Shanghai's general housing standards plays a decisive role in promoting the transaction of second-hand houses.
"Ordinary homes", which used to account for only about 19% of the market, now account for nearly 90%. This means that most of the second-hand housing exchanges in Shanghai need to pay individual income tax and value-added tax will be reduced accordingly, directly reducing the cost of second-hand transactions. Ordinary residences over 5 can be directly exempted from VAT.
Judging from the week after the implementation of the new policy, the second-hand housing market in Shanghai has a clear trend of recovery in terms of volume and transaction volume.
(1) The number of second-hand housing listings has surged, and the demand for replacement is dominant.
In the second half of this year, the second-hand housing market became colder, mainly due to the imbalance between supply and demand caused by the surge in listings.
According to statistics, even if 40,000 sets were listed at the beginning of this year, there was no significant drawdown. It was not until the second half of the year that the total listing price began to climb to 80,000-90,000 units, and the transaction price began to retreat sharply. On September 1, after the introduction of Shanghai's new policy of recognising houses and not recognising loans, the number of listings climbed again to a peak of about 9 in November260,000 sets.
In early December, Shanghai's listings showed a downward trend. After the introduction of the new policy, the number of listings rose again. According to the latest statistics, on December 17, Shanghai's listing ** broke through the 90,000 mark again, about 9030,000 sets.
In addition, the distribution data of newly listed houses shows that the new listings are mainly concentrated outside the outer ring, with the total price of the main force below 6 million and the main area below 90. It can be seen that the new deal has further released the replacement demand of the market.
(2) The vast majority of owners are waiting for the market reaction and have not changed the listing for the time being
According to statistics, after the introduction of the new policy, 9707% of listings remain unchanged, 027% of listings***266% of listings** declined. The vast majority of owners are still waiting to see how the market reacts after the new deal, so there is no change in the listing**. Some owners want to cash out or replace as soon as possible, and the listing price has decreased, hoping to clear it as soon as possible: the data further shows that 54% of the total price below 4 million chose to reduce the price, while the 6 million to 15 million interrupted improvement demand only accounted for about 21% of the price reduction.
(3) The volume and volume of the show have picked up
According to the feedback of various intermediary stores, after the new policy, the number of customer inquiries and visits has increased significantly, and customers who had previously held a wait-and-see attitude began to see and subscribe.
According to the data of the Shanghai Real Estate Exchange Center, a total of 1410,000 units, with an average daily transaction of about 470 units. Last week (1211-12.17) The average daily transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shanghai is 498 units. 7 days after the policy was introduced (1215-12.21), the average daily transaction of second-hand houses in Shanghai was 557 units, 11 higher than the average level last week85%, 18 percent higher than the daily average in November51%。
According to statistics, on the evening of December 14, more than 30 projects issued "24-hour non-closing", "new deal has been issued, come to see the house", "today's madness" and other customer ** posters.
Transactions have picked up, but project transactions are still significantly differentiated
According to the data of the Shanghai Real Estate Exchange Center, last week (1211-12.17) The average daily transaction volume of new houses in Shanghai was 595 units, and 7 days after the policy was introduced (1215-12.21), the average daily transaction in Shanghai was 664 units, which was 11 higher than the average level last Sunday6%。
The impact of the New Deal on the new housing market is relatively differentiated, only the subscription and transaction of high-quality new houses in some areas have increased significantly compared with before the New Deal, and the number of visits to other projects has increased to varying degrees, but there is no significant change in transactions.
There are many improvement customers, most of whom hope to replace through the way of "selling one and buying one", and only after the second-hand housing in hand is dropped, will they enter the new housing marketTherefore, the actual impact of the new policy on the new housing market needs to be observed for a while. In addition, intending home buyers are less sensitive to the policy of low down payment in the case field, and the use of housing purchase leverage tends to be more rational, mainly based on the improvement needs of family self-occupation.
Judging from the current week, the popularity of new and second-hand houses in Shanghai has rebounded significantly. Compared with new houses, the policy has a more rapid and obvious stimulating effect on second-hand houses, and the number of consultations, revisits and transactions have increased significantly.
As the core area of the real estate market, the market performance and policy trends of first-tier cities are prominent in the development of the entire property market, and the new policy has a positive effect on the reshaping and consolidation of the confidence of the entire real estate market.
A number of industry insiders believe that although after the introduction of the new policy, the real estate market heat in Beijing and Shanghai has rebounded compared with the past, but the policy still needs a process of digestion, and the trend of the economic environment next year is still the focus of buyers.
(This article was first published in Ti **app, written by Wang Jian, Zhao Chenhan, edited by Liu Yangxue).
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