Thanks to more than 30 years of family planning, China's fertility rate has fallen to 109%, the number of births is even 850,000 fewer than the number of deaths, and the natural growth rate of the population has reached -06, and in the ranking of low fertility, it has become the second in the world, second only to South Korea's 078%。Although there are still crowds of people during holidays, and the negative population growth is not visible to the naked eye, the effect of the continuous ** of the new population has begun to appear.
Recently, the Hunan Provincial Department of Education issued a document requiring the orderly organization of kindergartens to be set up and withdrawn, and kindergartens in rural areas will not be added in principle.
Hunan became the first province in the country to officially propose to withdraw kindergartens. This is a signal, but also a realistic helplessness. Linquan, Anhui Province, the largest county in China, once had a total population of more than 2.3 million, but before the start of school this year, more than 50 kindergartens were terminated, which is equivalent to the one-time closure of local kindergartens 1 10. More importantly, this phenomenon of withdrawal is not an isolated case, but has spread across the country. According to data from the Ministry of Education, the number of kindergartens in 2022 decreased by 5,610 compared to the previous year, a decrease of nearly 2%. The number of children in the original year began to grow negatively in 2021, with a decrease of 130,000 in that year, and the decline widened in 2022, with a decrease of 1.78 million. Although it had long been expected that kindergartens would be reduced, the situation was reversed faster than most people could have imagined.
Just a few years ago, the enrollment of kindergartens in many places was still very tight, and some popular kindergartens even forced parents to queue up all night just for a place. But it seems that overnight, kindergartens suddenly became surplus, from a garden is hard to find, to a child is hard to find. And the mass closure of kindergartens is just the first domino that the birth decline has toppled down. Since 2022, there has been negative growth in kindergartens across the country. This means that with the passage of time, all educational institutions in the country will face unprecedented adjustments, which will have an all-round impact on Chinese society and ultimately determine the rise and fall of national fortunes. Some people may say: this is all alarmist, but please think about it carefully, now is the kindergarten merger, so 3 years, 9 years, 12 years, will we face a large number of small, junior and high withdrawals?Will there be so many more universities in 15 years?20 years later, who will be the screw, who will be the pick-up man?So many houses, so many infrastructure facilities are gone, how to digest the demographic dividend?How to grow?How to support today's prosperity?How to imagine the bright theory of China's economy?Young people may not be in a hurry, but there are always people who are in a hurry.
Recently, an expert said in an interview with China News Weekly:
Some young people are not as willing to have children as before in the face of multiple pressures in life, which mainly come from education, elderly care, medical care, childbirth and childcare, which makes it difficult for many young couples to bear. Experts expressed their understanding and regret for this phenomenon. At this point, it is actually all reasonable. Obviously, this expert is really well aware of the difficulties of young people. But suddenly, he changed his mind, and despite this, we young people, especially young couples, should look forward. After all, difficulties are temporary, and there is still a long way to go in a person's life. This stage of childbirth is fleeting, seize the effective fertility period, and borrow the power of relatives and friends from temporary difficulties, which can help you, otherwise after this age, I am afraid it will be a little too late to regret it.
Therefore, what this expert wants to say in the end is: when young people reach the childbearing period and have no money, they should borrow money from relatives and friends to have children, and if they have no time to raise children, let them help, and warn in the tone of old-timers: After this age, it is too late to regret it. When many people see these words, their first reaction is probably not anger, but they feel ridiculous. Do you need to invite someone to the stage?Are you all young fools?Take 10,000 steps back, even if young people don't know that they can still rely on relatives and friends, but the problem is that they ask relatives and friends for help, so who do relatives and friends go to help?If you have money, you will lend you, and if you have time, you will help you take care of the baby, these relatives and friends don't have to have children, they don't have to go to work, they don't have to eat.
For today's China, many people are not unable to raise children, but they are unwilling to suffer for their children. If in order to have a baby and raise a baby, you have to get up early and work late, dare not travel, dare not consume, dare not be unemployed, dare not see a doctor, not only the happiness has dropped sharply, but even life can not be guaranteed, then there will naturally be young people who choose not to have children. Even if some young people are already married, they will choose to take a break and take on the responsibility of childbearing.
Life is just like this, youth is like this, who doesn't want to be a little easier?The extension of childbearing age and the decline in fertility willingness are not just a matter of money, but even contain a certain intransigence on the part of young people, who do not want their children to suffer after they come out. Of course, it is not a pheasant expert who said the above words, but a professor at the School of Sociology and Ethnology of the University of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, director of the World Social Security Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a member of the Advisory Expert Committee of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, a doctoral supervisor, and a recipient of special allowances.
However, it is such a professor who specializes in social security, who prefers to bypass his own major, does not call for the improvement of the social security system, and wants to reduce the pressure of young people to have children, but does the opposite, telling them to face the difficulties, and find relatives and friends to help if it is really difficult.
In contrast, Ren Zeping's previous proposal of "issuing 3 trillion subsidized births" is still more reliable. But does just handing out money really work?We know that there are birth subsidies in many developed countries, such as South Korea, in order to save the fertility rate, there have been many policies to subsidize reputation, and since 2006, tens of trillions of won have been allocated every year to spend on childbirth.
For example, after each child is born, parents get a cash subsidy of 2 million won for postpartum support, about 10,000 yuan, and in the first year after the child is born, there is a childcare subsidy of 700,000 won and about 3,800 yuan every month, and this subsidy will be increased to a certain extent every year, and it will be increased to 1 million won, about 5,400 yuan, next year. When the child reaches the age of 1, the family also has a monthly subsidy of 350,000 won, about 1,900 yuan. In addition, close relatives who assist with babies can also receive a monthly care allowance of 300,000 won, about 1,600 yuan.
Starting from 2022, South Korea has also implemented the "3+3 parental leave system", that is, within 12 months of the child's birth, parents can use parental leave at the same time, and the first three months of salary will be paid as usual, and each person can receive up to 3 million won per month, about 1Allowance of 60,000 RMB. If the couple has a third child left, the tuition fee for the third child will not only be paid in full, but they will also be able to enjoy a monthly subsidy of 4.5 million to 5.2 million won if they are admitted to university in the future.
What's more, some local ** communities have also launched a rent-free policy for giving birth to children, giving birth to one child can reduce 50% of the monthly rent of the apartment, and having two children can completely exempt the monthly rent, and the maximum lease period can be up to 10 years. In addition, there are medical expenses during pregnancy, infertility** expenses, confinement fees, and so on. In short, from pregnancy to birth, raising, and raising, South Korea's ** is giving money in every link. Unfortunately, these measures have not stopped the fertility rate from falling to the bottom. As a result, in the fourth quarter of this year, South Korea was forced to make a big move
A new policy has been promulgated linking the promotion of civil servants to promotion. First of all, the civil servants at the most basic level and two levels, if they dig two or more, they can get extra points in the promotion evaluation. After retirement, if a civil servant at all levels has two or more children, the maximum period of re-employment will also be extended, from three years to 10 years.
Speaking of which, there are too many similarities between China and South Korea, for example, South Korea's examination is also notoriously fatal. According to data from some South Korean statistical agencies, 440,000 of the 1.07 million people in South Korea are preparing to take the public examination.
Like in the Chinese system, South Korean civil servants are not only stable and have social status, but also have a good social security and retirement system, so many Korean men and women are also squeezed.
As soon as the birth policy is introduced, the promotion and welfare of civil servants will be directly and not small related to the birth of a baby. In other words, even if young people in South Korea are desperately admitted to the system, they can't lie down, and they still have to work hard to have babies in order to successfully enter the promotion channel. According to a set of data in 2019, the number of civil servants in South Korea that year was about 1.09 million, and women accounted for 50 of these people6%, more than men. And many people, both men and women, are not very old. Therefore, having South Korean civil servants take the lead in having babies seems to be a real possible measure at first glance. We seem to be able to foresee a possible future for China, but the move has sparked a lot of controversy in South Korea, with the focus of controversy being unfairness and some saying that it is blatant discrimination against singleness. Despite some opposition, South Korea** does not have any intention of withdrawing at the moment. According to the announcement issued by **, the implementation date of the baby bonus policy is January 2024, and the transition period from the announcement of the policy to the implementation is less than two months. One can imagine how urgent South Korea is to increase its fertility rate.
Speaking of which, some people may think that South Korea has done so much, and the reputation rate is not so low, and then conclude that encouraging reputation is nothing more than that, and doing it is in vain. But those who say this may not have thought about it, and without these incentives, I am afraid that their fertility rate will only be more ugly. But it is obvious that childbirth is not something that can be solved by simply giving money, but a package is needed to solve the mountains of housing, education, pension and medical care. If not, then it is not impossible to just send money. It's just that in the process of subsidizing childbirth, can these money really be sent smoothly, just like Zhengzhou's childbirth subsidy, how many people have applied for it now?Fertility rate