The trend of the renminbi's continuous ** suddenly reversed, and the maximum decline this week exceeded 500 points. The decline has raised questions and concerns about the direction of the renminbi. However, we can't overstate the significance of this time, as the momentum has waned over the past few weeks. The short-term fluctuation of the exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar is affected by a number of factors, such as the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and the economic trends of the two countries. Therefore, a short-term short-term occurrence does not mean a reversal of the RMB's trend.
In addition, the exchange rate of the renminbi is also affected by the domestic and foreign economic situation. China's latest Caixin PMI data shows that the PMI of both manufacturing and service industries is more than 50, indicating that China's economy is gradually improving. However, at present, China is in a transition period of economic power transformation, and economic restructuring focuses on the growth of domestic demand, rather than relying excessively on real estate. Such a shift would inevitably lead to fluctuations in the economy and exchange rates. Therefore, in the long run, the key to determining the trend of the exchange rate is the development of the economies of the two countries.
Recently, data released by the global SWIFT payment system shows that the proportion of US dollar payments is significantly higher than half a year ago. The global payment trend, which has been de-dollarized, seems to have reversed. However, we cannot simply assume that de-dollarization has failed.
First of all, the increase in the share of the dollar was mainly due to the decline in the share of the euro. The euro's share was once close to the dollar, but has now fallen to 2336%。Second, more and more countries are using their own currencies bilaterally**, while other payment systems are expanding their use. Therefore, SWIFT does not count all monetary payments.
At the same time, the proportion of RMB payments has also decreased slightly, and is currently at 36%, ranking fifth in the world. One of the reasons for this decrease is the expansion of CIPS (China International Payment System) coverage. CIPS is China's own payment system, and many of these payments do not go through the SWIFT channel, so they are not included in the statistics. In addition, the application scenarios of China's digital yuan are becoming more and more extensive, which will surely promote the use of RMB in the international environment.
Overall, while the increase in the share of US dollar payments raises some doubts, we cannot simply interpret it as a failure of de-dollarization. The change in the proportion of payment is the result of a combination of factors, and the future economic development, the improvement of international status and the promotion of digital yuan will help to further enhance the status of RMB in global payment.
Judging from the current situation, the exchange rate of the renminbi may continue to fluctuate due to some uncertainties in the short term. However, in the long run, the continuous improvement and transformation and upgrading of China's economy have provided strong support for the stable trend of the RMB.
With the structural adjustment of China's economy, domestic demand has become the main driving force for economic growth. With the improvement of consumption capacity, the promotion of scientific and technological innovation and the vigorous development of the digital economy, China's domestic demand market will gradually play a greater role, which is bound to promote the steady appreciation of the RMB.
In addition, China is constantly enhancing its international influence and status, and actively promoting global and investment liberalization and facilitation. At the same time, the promotion of the digital yuan will provide new impetus and opportunities for the internationalization of the yuan.
In summary, the short-term volatility of the renminbi should not cause undue concern, and at the same time, it cannot be simply interpreted as a reversal of the trend of de-dollarization. As a country with an increasingly large global economy, China should actively promote the reform and internationalization of the financial system, improve the international status of the renminbi, and make greater contributions to the stable growth of the economy and the development of the global economy.