After a period of continuous time, the yuan suddenly appeared**, with the biggest drop of more than 500 points this week. The abrupt change has raised doubts about whether the renminbi will reverse. But we need to analyze in depth, and the short-term** is just a necessary adjustment, not necessarily a long-term trend reversal. The momentum of the yuan has gradually waned over the past few weeks, which could mean that the momentum is waning. Therefore, this week's ** may only be a temporary correction in line with the normal market volatility law. In addition, the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve is also one of the reasons for the market volatility, as there is some uncertainty in the market about the future monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Therefore, although the short-term exchange rate will be affected by various uncertainties, in the medium to long term, the key to determining the exchange rate is the economic trend of the two countries.
On the economic front, China's latest PMI data for Caixin's manufacturing and services sectors both show that China's economy is improving, and both data have entered expansion territory. This shows that our economic growth is transforming away from over-reliance on ** and real estate. Although exports have not been able to grow significantly due to sluggish foreign demand, we are increasing the development of domestic demand, which will be the main driver of economic growth in the future. In the process of economic structural transformation, economic fluctuations and exchange rate fluctuations are unavoidable.
Another question that has attracted attention is whether the proportion of payments in US dollars is significantly higher than that of half a year ago, despite the efforts of countries to de-dollarize, does it mean that de-dollarization will fail?In fact, not exactly. While the share of US dollar payments increased, this was mainly due to a decline in the share of the euro. The share of euro payments, which once approached the dollar, has now fallen to 2336%。In addition, more and more countries are using local currencies for bilateral**, and other payment systems are expanding their use. Therefore, SWIFT does not count all monetary payments. In addition, the proportion of RMB payments in China has decreased slightly, and it is now 36%, but our payment system is expanding its application, especially the launch of the digital yuan, which will further promote the internationalization of the yuan. Therefore, from a macro point of view, the de-dollarization effort has not failed, but only requires the accumulation of time and effort.
From the above analysis, it can be seen that the current short-term fluctuations in the RMB are a normal adjustment process. The transformation of the economic structure and the efforts to de-dollarize are important tasks facing the Chinese economy. Whether it is exchange rate fluctuations or Caixin's PMI data for manufacturing and services, they are a microcosm of economic development. In the context of globalization, changes in exchange rates are a comprehensive reflection of national economic trends and policies. Therefore, we should not look at short-term fluctuations one-sidedly, but should pay more attention to economic restructuring and long-term development. For individuals, they should pay attention to the reasons and trends of exchange rate changes in a timely manner, and make reasonable plans and strategies for foreign exchange investment. At the same time, we should also actively pay attention to the development trend of China's economy, grasp the opportunity of domestic demand growth, and participate in the wave of economic transformation and upgrading. After all, in the long run, China's economic growth and the internationalization of the renminbi are inevitable trends, which will also bring more opportunities for individuals and businesses.