"Science and Technology Innovation Board**" on December 14 (edited by Zheng Yuanfang).The wind of price increases in the storage industry is getting stronger, and analysts have raised their expectations again, this time by a "considerable" amount.
The latest Morgan Stanley report states:PC and smartphone manufacturers are aggressively building up memory chip inventories, next year's Q1 memory chip is expected to be substantial.
According to the Trendforce expected data it cites,In Q1 next year, DRAM and NAND** are both expected to grow by 18%-23% QoQ – an increase of 10-13 percentage points compared to TrendForce's previous expectations (8%-13% QoQ growth in DRAM** and 5%-10% QoQ for NAND).
Downstream customer behavior has shifted: by 2024, the number of orders from Chinese smartphone OEMs will increase significantly. Da Mo pointed out that smartphone OEMs have started**, and inventory is only returning to normal levels (4-6 weeks for mobile DRAM and 6-7 weeks for NAND). At the same time, PC ODM OEM manufacturers are also working to build up inventory.
And after the storage manufacturers significantly reduced productionProduction is still well below demand, so demand drives storage
Under the gap between supply and demand, some storage products have been out of stock. After the production reduction of the original upstream storage factory, the order of the overall supply resources was dynamically adjusted, and the priority was given to the supply of its own brand products, and the proportion of external NAND sales decreased. **Chain Scale,At present, some products are out of stock, and after the customer finalizes the first wave of pre-orders, they want to increase the number of goods but can no longer buy them
Not only that, industry chain manufacturers are quite optimistic about the trend of price increases.
Last week, Western Digital, the world's fourth-largest NAND Flash company, issued a price increase notice letter to customers. In the letter, Western Digital said that the company will review hard drive product pricing on a weekly basis and expects to **will** in the first half of next year;;In the NAND chip part, the company expects that the next few quarters will be cyclical**, and the cumulative increase may reach 55% on the basis of the current **
Storage manufacturer ADATA also said a few days agoIt is optimistic that next year's memory ** will continue to develop positively, and "the memory long market is just about to start".。At this stage, the upstream production reduction plan is maintained, and the price increase attitude is strong, not only the Nand Flash in Q4 has increased more than expected, but also in Q1 next year, there is also considerable room for price increases.
It is worth mentioningSouth Korea's financial investment industry has unanimously raised the Q4 performance forecasts of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, two storage leaders。Among them, SK hynix is expected to end its operating deficit for four consecutive quarters and achieve a profit of about 100 billion won in Q4 this yearSamsung Electronics is also expected to turn a profit in Q1 next year.
CITIC pointed out in December 6 that the Q3 performance of industrial chain companies has been repaired, and mainstream and niche storage have risen together, and continue to pay attention to the impact of the original inventory depletion process and the recovery rhythm of downstream demand on storage. From the perspective of the industry cycle, the supply and demand of storage under the control of overseas manufacturers have gradually improved, and the mainstream storage has continued to pick up since Q3, and has driven the niche storage to bottom out in Q4We are optimistic about the recovery of the bottom of the performance of the leading Q4 industry chain segment with the gradual return of inventory and demand, and the investment opportunities under the trend of superimposed localization of the cycle of the domestic storage industry chain. It is recommended to pay attention to: 1) storage modules;2) Memory supporting chips that benefit from DDR5 upgrade penetration;3) Memory chip design.