With the onset of winter, the thermal coal market is once again in the spotlight. This week, the strict situation of safety supervision in the production area has not changed, and some companies have released information on limited production, resulting in a slowdown in the production areaAt the same time, the daily consumption of coal has rebounded slightly due to the drop in temperature, and the daily consumption of thermal coal in the eight southern provinces has reached 1.99 million tons, showing a growth momentum. In terms of non-electricity, although the high-energy-consuming industries have entered the off-season in winter, most of the downstream products continue to increase due to cost support and the expectation of an improvement in the macro environment, which has led to an increase in coal demand.
In terms of inventory, the inventory of ports around the Bohai Sea continued to decrease, which exacerbated the supply tightness in the market. Due to the impact of these combined factors, coal **continued** this week.
Looking ahead, with the start of peak winter heating demand and the continuous introduction of policy measures to stabilize the economy, there is still room for growth in industrial electricity and non-electricity coal demand. However, the safety supervision of the first end is tightening, and the growth space of domestic production is limited. At the same time, the geopolitical crisis continues, and international energy** remains relatively high, so there is uncertainty.
As far as the specific situation is concerned, on December 1, the price of Guangzhou Port Shanxi Excellent Mixed Q5500 Library was raised by 1050 yuan, the long-term agreement price was 713 yuan, the Datong Hunyuan thermal coal was 813 yuan, and the Qinhuangdao thermal coal long-term agreement price was 713 yuan. The total coal inventory of the northern ports was 26.13 million tons, with a weekly change of -091%；The total coal inventory of the eight ports of the Yangtze River was 5.97 million tons, with a weekly change of +034%；The inventory of power plants in the eight southern provinces was 35.15 million tons, with a weekly change of -076%。On the demand side, the daily consumption of power plants in the eight coastal provinces was 1.99 million tons, with a weekly change of +810,000 tons (+4.)2%）。
In the short term, the thermal coal market will continue to face tight supply and demand. In the medium and long term, the factors of limited end and good demand side will continue to support thermal coal.